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Wednesday, April 22, 2020

2020 NFL Mock Draft

1. Cincinnati Bengals- Joe Burrow, QB LSU

Paul Daugherty column on Joe Burrow's cigar photo by Jeffrey Marx
Photo by Jeffrey Marx

Burrow is entering the draft after the best year in college football history. He set records, played in a pro style system, and went undefeated, leading the LSU Tigers to a national championship victory. Burrow's leadership qualities will be important on a Bengals team that has been rebuilding and acquiring younger talent. He's also an Ohio native, and a son of a former professional quarterback: Jim Burrow. All signs point to Cincy drafting him. This is the easiest pick in the draft to predict.

Burrow will fit into head coach Zac Taylor's scheme well. His accuracy when passing is great, he's mobile enough to move around the pocket, and he has proven he is smart with the football. Tyler Boyd can thrive as Burrow's new favorite slot receiver. AJ Green is returning this year on the franchise tag, as is speed threat John Ross. Both will look to turn their careers around with Burrow after struggling the past few years for various reasons.

2. Washington Redskins- Chase Young, EDGE Ohio State

Chase Young a 'generational' defensive end talent ...
Photo by Paul Sancya

Young had 16.5 sacks last year in only 11 games. That's six less games than an NFL regular season, and most NFL players never hit that mark in a year. The craziest part of that is he hasn't even reached his ceiling yet. Young isn't completely unpolished, but in college he could get away with leaning on his elite athleticism to get the job done. With NFL coaching, Young could take his game changing skills to the next level and be an All Pro kind of talent.

Ron Rivera is the new head coach in D.C. and he has a lot of options with this pick. Would he prefer taking a franchise QB of his choosing instead of keeping last year's first round selection, Dwayne Haskins? Could he fall in love with Isaiah Simmons' versatility? Or will he trade down and acquire more players to build his team around? I think Rivera, a head coach with a background in defense, will take Young because of the possibilities he can bring to the Redskin's already strong defensive line. Washington is in a division with the Cowboys and Eagles - two of the NFL's best offensive lines. Having a strong defensive line to combat those teams is imperative. Plus, if the NFL truly is a copycat league, Rivera will see how much better the 49ers' defense was last year after taking Nick Bosa- another Ohio State defensive end- at the number two pick.

3. Detroit Lions- Jeffery Okudah, CB Ohio State

Lions NFL Draft Profile: Jeff Okudah | The Sports Daily


Ohio State's claims of being DBU get stronger every year, and Okudah is this year's reason why the Buckeyes can say that. Okudah has the speed, the size, the arm length- everything a pro team looks for in a cornerback's measurables. He's also a technician, regularly shutting down opposing receivers because of his attention to detail in the film room and at practice. He didn't have a ton of interceptions last year, but he didn't have targets coming his way that often either- quarterbacks were either too scared to throw it his way, or the receiver wasn't open. See how Okudah shut down Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross in the semifinal game this year against Clemson and you'll see what I mean.

The Lions let cornerback Darius Slay go in free agency, presumably so that the older shutdown corner could be replaced by the younger Okudah. In the Patriot's defensive system (which head coach Matt Patricia now runs in Detroit) a shutdown corner is a very important element. Darrelle Revis and Aqib Talib are two stars who have played this role in New England. Now, it's Stephon Gilmore. These corners are tasked with following the opposing team's best wide receiver, forcing the quarterback to use his other, oftentimes less capable, receiving options. Okudah would fit this role in Detroit. It is still possible the Lions trade down to a team likely looking for a quarterback, but if they don't, Okudah will be the pick.

4. New York Giants- Jedrick Wills, OT Alabama

Alabama RT Jedrick Wills Jr. injured during scrimmage
Photo by Mickey Welsh

Wills is a polished blocker in the run and the pass, and should be ready to start day one. With the pandemic going on, we still don't know if rookie camps and training camps will still be held. This increases the value of Wills over other linemen, who might have higher potential, but need some coaching. That's not to say Wills won't be a star in his own right. This guy could be a starter for a long time to come.

The Giants could go several different ways with this pick. Luckily for them, it looks like they have their franchise QB, Daniel Jones, so they can continue to build around him if they choose. Wills is the choice here for a few reasons though: 1) General manager Dave Gettlemen has proven that he believes in building his team through the trenches. 2) New head coach Joe Judge was an assistant at Alabama not too long ago, and in a year that it's difficult to gather information on prospects he can acquire all the information he would need on Wills via Nick Saban. 3) The Giants defense was terrible last year, but they will have their choice of good defensive players at the top of the second round. Offensive tackle, on the other hand, is a position that will be hard to find value in on day two this year.

5. Miami Dolphins- Justin Herbert, QB Oregon

NFL mock draft 2020 (final): Justin Herbert goes to the Miami ...
Photo by Sean Meagher

Herbert may have the strongest arm in the draft. He was a four year starter at Oregon, where the team went through a rebuild of sorts, going from 4-8 his freshman year to 12-2 his senior year.  This could be a major positive for a rebuilding team in the NFL, who needs a young franchise QB to trust the process while they struggle early on. Herbert may have increased his draft stock the most among quarterbacks this offseason. He won Senior Bowl MVP, participated in combine drills, and luckily had his pro day before the COVID pandemic shut everything down.

All of the reasons listed above make Herbert the Dolphins' pick to be their franchise quarterback. Do I think he's as good as Tua? No. But I do believe that all of the offseason hype may have gotten to Miami, and that the concerns over Tagovailoa's injuries are real. Herbert isn't ready to start right away, but he can sit behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and learn for a while. New offensive coordinator Chan Gailey believes in the vertical passing game, which could really be in Herbert's favor if he studies the playbook and works on his mechanics. If Miami's head coach Brian Flores is following New England's (his former team) winning formula, Herbert doesn't have to be anything more than a game manager at the position and be smart with the football- just look at Tom Brady's early years. If he improves his game like Brady, he could eventually run the offense and be a star.

6. Los Angeles Chargers- Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama

Bleacher Report lists two Alabama alum as 'Heisman snubs'

Not too long ago, Tua was considered the clear number one pick in this year's draft. Before the 2019 season began, many fans were already lobbying for their teams to "tank for Tua". Such a thing hadn't been suggested by fans since "suck for Luck" was a term leading into the 2012 draft. Tagovailoa has had sustained success from the time he led a comeback win in the second half of the 2018 championship game. His accuracy, mechanics, and decision making are levels above most quarterbacks entering the league. The thing that has held Tua back his entire career has been injuries; his ankles, wrists, and most severely, his hip have taken a beating in his short college career, and teams are rightfully worried about his durability. With team doctors not allowed to visit players during the pandemic, Tua may fall even farther than the sixth pick, but it only takes one team to trust in his talent over his injuries.

The Chargers finally parted ways with Philip Rivers, leaving Tyrod Taylor as the team's starting quarterback. Taylor is not a terrible player, and if they chose to take a top defensive player like Simmons or Derrick Brown it wouldn't be a bad thing for the team. But, if one is to look at the free agent signings the team made this year, you may find clues on what L.A. plans in the draft. The Chargers traded left tackle Russell Okung for guard Trai Turner, and signed right tackle Bryan Bulaga from the Green Bay Packers. Bulaga is one of the best pass blocking right tackles in the NFL, a position that would be especially important if a team had a left handed quarterback like Tagovailoa. Tua's blind side would be protected securely by Bulaga. Getting Turner improves the interior line, which would also be important for Tua, a shorter QB who will need to be able to step up in the pocket. If Tua was drafted by L.A. he'd have the O-line to protect him, and the skill position players like Keenan Allen to flourish. The Chargers are a better team than their draft position would suggest. A franchise quarterback like Tagovailoa may push them into contention.

7. Carolina Panthers- Isaiah Simmons, LB/S Clemson

Clemson Football: Will Isaiah Simmons fall out of top 10 in NFL draft?
Photo by Tom Pennington

Simmons arguably had the best combine of any player this year. At almost 240 pounds, he ran a 4.39 40 yard dash, had a 39 inch vertical, and a 132 inch broad jump. At Clemson he played linebacker, safety, edge, and even corner at different times for the Tiger's defense. A Butkus award winner, his potential is very high, and will be an important piece on whichever team chooses to take him.

What the Panthers do in the draft is a mystery to most everyone right now; Matt Rhule is the team's new head coach, and it's his first time as a head coach in the NFL. What we do know from interviews is that Rhule wants players who are fast, versatile, and leaders in the locker room. Simmons fits all of these traits perfectly, and he fills a position of need at linebacker now that Luke Kuechly has retired.

8. Arizona Cardinals- Tristan Wirfs, OT Iowa

Tristan Wirfs - Football - University of Iowa Athletics

Wirfs is another player who had one of this year's best combine performances. At 320 pounds, he ran a 4.85 40 yard dash, had a 36.5 inch vertical, and got 24 bench reps. His athleticism has made him one of the most talked about linemen this offseason, and some teams see him as the top tackle this year. Iowa has had success lately sending Hawkeye linemen to productive NFL careers. Wirfs is an athletic standout that's not completely raw, and that could get him chosen in the top ten picks.

Under Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona has adopted an air raid, spread it out offense. In this offense, linemen need to be athletic enough to support screen plays, read option plays that spread the field horizontally, and of course, pass block. Wirfs isn't the best pass blocker in the class, but he can shine in the system because of his speed and run blocking. The Cardinals have all of the skill positions to be an elite offensive team; if Kingsbury adds more talent to the line, they could be brilliant for years to come.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars- Derrick Brown, DT Auburn

NFL draft profile: Derrick Brown of Auburn - Chicago Tribune
Photo by Butch Dill

Derrick Brown is a dangerous man in the trenches. At 6'4'' and 325 lbs, he's big and strong enough to secure the one technique in the middle of a defensive line, but is athletic enough to play a three technique in between the offensive guard and tackle. Being a huge guy, one might initially think he'll be limited to stuffing the run, but he affects the passing game a lot as well. SEC fans know how much Brown can wreck an offense's plans. NFL fans will learn Brown's name quickly, and they're going to hope he doesn't play their team on Sundays.

The Jaguars have lost most of the stars from the superb defense that got them to an AFC Championship. Linebacker Myles Jack is still there, and they have first round picks Taven Bryan and Josh Allen on the defensive line. Okudah is off the board in this scenario, but the Jaguars may still consider addressing corner with someone like CJ Henderson. I think they'll look at their team and opt to make a solid front seven into a strength with Brown. Jacksonville's AFC South opponents are each strong in the run game, and that may factor into the Jaguar's decision when they're on the board. Brown is a good fit here, plain and simple.

10. Cleveland Browns- Mekhi Becton, OT Louisville

2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Mekhi Becton, OT, Lousiville -
Photo by Ian Johnson

Mekhi Becton is a massive man, but he's not limited athletically. He's 6'7'' and 360 lbs, and ran a 5.1 40 yard dash. He is still working on the finer techniques of the tackle position, but he has a punishing style to his game that coaches and fans will love to see. If Becton lands on a team with good coaching he could easily be the best offensive linemen out of this class in a few years. Mekhi is a good player; if he falls, he could be one of the steals of this draft.

The Browns have been putting a good offense together for a couple of years now, but it hasn't gelled yet. This offseason, they signed tight end Austin Hooper to join receiving options Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, and David Njoku. Under new head coach Kevin Stefanksi, the offense is expected to run the ball a lot, and the Browns have the players to do that well too. Running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are both excellent, and Cleveland signed tackle Jack Conklin to boost the line. If the Browns chose Becton he'd be a monster in the run game, and the team would have good offensive tackles on each side of the line to protect Baker Mayfield.

11. New York Jets- Ceedee Lamb, WR Oklahoma

2020 NFL Draft: Hard Work Turned CeeDee Lamb Into An Elite ...
Photo by Jeffrey McWhorter

Lamb has everything a team would want in a wide receiver. He has great hands and body control, and can make all sorts of the crazy catches. He put up massive numbers at Oklahoma while working with three different quarterbacks. He's not the fastest receiver in the draft, but is strong and elusive, consistently breaking tackles and gaining a ton of yards after the catch. Lamb is good enough to enter an organization and be its best receiver by the end of the year.

New York had a bad offense last year, and they desperately need to add some top talent. With Andrew Thomas still available in this scenario, he could be the pick, but the Jets have already added a few offensive linemen in free agency. Something New York lost in free agency was their best wideout, Robby Anderson. After he left, the team signed Breshad Perriman, but if the Jets really wanted to help Darnold develop into the QB he was chosen to be Lamb is an obvious choice at pick eleven.

12. Las Vegas Raiders- Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama

Washington Redskins 2020 Draft Profiles: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama ...
Photo by Butch Dill

Jerry Jeudy is a fantastic receiver. The 2018 Biletnikoff award winner is the most advanced route runner in the class, and has top tier agility and speed to create separation. After the catch, he uses he speed and elusiveness to earn extra yards, and he's one of the few in the class that can take a slant route to the house. His acceleration is impressive. Jeudy primarily played in the slot in college, but this was due to the fact that there were three other NFL caliber WRs on the team, and he was better equipped to play the position than the others. Jerry is good enough to play anywhere at the wide receiver position, and once he puts on a little more muscle he could easily be the first option on his team.

It's no secret that coach Jon Gruden really wanted a top wideout for his team last year, and that Antonio Brown was not the solution. General manager Mike Mayock and Gruden could choose Henry Ruggs III in this mock, but I think Jeudy's skill set is more of what the Raiders want. Vegas already has their speed guy in Tyrell Williams. They also have red zone threats like Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller. Gruden started his coaching career as a wide receivers coach in Green Bay, and will love Jeudy's advanced knowledge of the position. If chosen by Las Vegas, Jeudy could be the most targeted player on the team his rookie year.


13. San Francisco 49ers- Javon Kinlaw, DL South Carolina

If Bucs Draft A DT At No. 14 It Should Be Kinlaw, Not Brown | Pewter ...


Kinlaw is seen by some teams as the best defensive tackle in this year's draft, above even Derrick Brown. There was a video that came out recently showing Javon belt squatting 2,000 pounds. He has long arms, superb strength, and could be a productive 3 technique or end on the defensive line. Kinlaw isn't as technically sound as a player like Derrick Brown (Kinlaw played only two years of Division 1 football) and he has an injury history. Kinlaw attended the first two days of the Senior Bowl practices, but stepped out after an injury set him back, and he didn't participate in the combine. His offseason hasn't boosted him up as much as he'd like, but Kinlaw still has the tape to convince a team to choose him in the first round.

If Kinlaw falls to the 49ers, general manager John Lynch would look very smart picking him. San Francisco traded defensive lineman Deforest Buckner to get the 13th pick from Indianapolis, who gave Buckner a big contract. Lynch knew he'd have to make a tough decision when all of the stars on his Super Bowl team came to him to get a contract extension, but trading Buckner to choose Kinlaw in the draft saves the team money and keeps the defensive line one of the best in the league. Kinlaw might not be a starter right away but on a team with so much defensive line depth he could learn how to be a pro, and then take over a starting position in a year or two.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia

Could Andrew Thomas Fall to 18th Spot for Dolphins? - Miami Dolphins

Andrew Thomas came into Athens and immediately started for Georgia his freshman year, no easy feat for such a talent laden program. In three years Thomas only missed two games. Unfortunately for Andrew, he's been a bit overshadowed by the other three top tackles this offseason. He doesn't have the athleticism of Wirfs, the size of Becton, or the smooth movement Wills has in pass protection. What he does have is experience, strength, and a willingness to get bodies out of the way in the run game. He might go a little later than the other linemen, but he can still be a consistent starter for whoever takes him.

Tampa Bay is suprisingly better on defense than many might think, and the organization has belief that Todd Bowles can develop whatever prospect they give him. The Bucs have a lot of receiving talent, and signed Tom Brady. Running back is a major need for the team, but running back value may be taking a hit again this year. Fun fact: out of all starting running backs in the playoffs last year, only one was a first round pick. That back was Mark Ingram, who was chosen with the 28th pick in the 2011 draft. A player that would give a boost to Tampa Bay's offense is Andrew Thomas. He can protect Brady at either tackle spot and could open lanes in the running game.

15. Denver Broncos- Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama

3 reasons Philadelphia Eagles should consider Henry Ruggs III at ...

When people say that Henry Ruggs III is fast, it's an understatement. If he had gotten the chance to hold a pro day, he might have gotten even closer to John Ross' 40 yard dash record of 4.22 seconds. Ruggs is different from some of the speed receivers that have come out of the draft lately; the Crimson Tide wideout doesn't have the injury history of John Ross and Marquise Brown or the drop issues that Will Fuller had in college and his first few years in the league. He's not an elite route runner, but he's good at running them and can improve upon the skill as he spends his time in the league. Ruggs' speed might be enough to get him chosen as the first receiver in the class, it all depends on what a coach is looking for.

In Denver, John Elway has slowly begun building quite the receiving corps for young QB Drew Lock. Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and even Melvin Gordon will contribute in the passing game next year. Drafting Henry Ruggs III gives the strong armed Lock a guy to loft passes 50, 60, 70 yards down the field for huge gains. Ruggs' speed also opens up room for passes underneath to the rest of the offense. The defense can't stack the box to stop the run without the threat of getting beat deep. To sum it up, Ruggs III is a player that gives the Broncos a lot of options on offense. A game changer like that is much worth the 15th pick.

16. Atlanta Falcons- CJ Henderson, CB Florida

CJ Henderson NFL Draft Expert Predictions
Photo by Mark Brown

Henderson is another corner who will surely go in the first round. He has the right blend of athleticism and coverage instincts to make him a star in the pros. CJ has been a difference maker at Florida since his freshman season, a year he had four interceptions. He might've been Ja'Marr Chase's biggest challenge during his Biletkinoff winning year at LSU last year. A common complaint about his game is his lack of tackling, but there are plenty of good corners who aren't Ray Lewis in the open field. All Henderson has to do is prevent his man from catching the ball, and that's something he does well.

The Falcons have eleven former first round picks on offense, and should be capable of moving the ball well next season. Running back is a possibility since Todd Gurley is only on a one year deal, but it's possible they can get someone in a later round. Atlanta does need as much help as possible on defense. They could go edge rusher, but they haven't had much success with the position in the first round recently, drafting busts Vic Beasley and Takk McKinley.  Now that Desmond Trufant left in free agency, the team needs a good corner to keep up with division rivals like Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, and DJ Moore. Henderson is a perfect pick to do just that, and reports that indicate the Falcons may be looking to trade up in the draft show how important it is to them to get a player like him.

17. Dallas Cowboys- K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE LSU

Baltimore Ravens scouting reports: Edge-setter K'Lavon Chaisson
Photo by Gregory Shamus

Chaisson displayed the burst at the snap and bend around the edge that NFL teams love to see at LSU. His six sacks aren't reflective of the pressure he gave QBs. If K'Lavon can learn to finish with a QB tackle instead of only a pressure we could be talking about him a lot in the pros. He'll also benefit from not receiving the amount of double teams he got at LSU. He has the speed to play stand up linebacker or defensive end, something that will make him appealing to teams, no matter their defensive system.

Dallas has already publicly stated that they're looking to strengthen the defense through the draft. At pick 17, all defensive positions are on the radar for the Cowboys, who have a decent defense, but could improve at every level. With CJ Henderson being drafted by the Falcons in this mock, I'd guess the Cowboys next move would be looking at the defensive line and linebackers. Rumors are that the team really likes Kenneth Murray, but I think they'd take Chaisson. K'Lavon could learn from veteran defensive ends "Tank" Lawrence and Aldon Smith, and become another pass rushing threat.

18. Miami Dolphins- Kenneth Murray, LB Oklahoma

2020 NFL Mock Draft: New England Patriots pick Kenneth Murray ...
Photo by Ronald Martinez

Murray is a player that has been talked about a lot this offseason, and expectations are that he'll go in the first round. He's fast and strong, and can be effective in coverage or blitzing. Murray is an aggressive player, and sometimes that gets him in trouble, but time with good coaching and tape study could make him a standout at the linebacker position. Murray was also a team captain at Oklahoma for multiple years, and left a really good impression with scouts at the combine, further increasing his draft value.

The Dolphins now have their quarterback in Justin Herbert, but with all of their draft picks this year they shouldn't feel pressured to fill needs. Instead, they should draft the best player available to them. Miami has begun building a better defense through free agency, and can add on to that momentum by selecting quality players like Murray. The available prospects on the defensive line and secondary are good, but several could fall to them at the 26th pick. The Raiders and Jaguars both have needs at linebacker, so if the Dolphins want a good LB they'd need to take one now, since the position isn't as loaded with first rounders. Murray could learn from coach Brian Flores and veterans like Kyle Van Noy on the Dolphins, and hold up the middle of the defense for years to come.

19. Las Vegas Raiders- Jaylon Johnson, CB Utah

UteZone Football Summer Countdown: #9 Jaylon Johnson
Photo by Joel Davidson

Johnson is a do it all cornerback who was part of a surprisingly good 2019 Utah team. The defense on the team was stout, and Johnson might have been the best player for the Utes. He's tall and long enough to match with the bigger receivers in the game, and his 4.5 speed in the 40 isn't blazing, but it's nothing to laugh at either. At the next level, Johnson might be best in zone coverage where he can use his smarts to watch the quarterback and attack the football. There doesn't seem to be a consensus third best cornerback, but in a year that team's will have to rely more on tape to choose players Johnson may be that guy for many organizations.

Las Vegas surprised many with their picks last year, but a common theme of Mike Mayock's draft picks so far has been tough, high character players who are in love with the game of football. Jaylon Johnson isn't necessarily a pick Al Davis would've made, (who was famous for choosing players based on their crazy athleticism) but he does seem like a player Mayock would like. Jaylon Johnson even confirmed this by telling Bleacher Report's Stick to Football Podcast that he felt the Raiders liked him a lot in team interviews. The Raiders still have a few needs on defense, one of those being cornerback. Johnson can team up with last year's CB pick Trayvon Mullen and make Vegas' secondary tougher to deal with.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars- Patrick Queen, LB LSU

LSU's Patrick Queen can soar up draft boards with an 'off the ...
Photo by Hilary Scheinuk

In the 2000s, teams could draft big linebackers to stuff the run all day and blitz. Today, the NFL has evolved to where linebackers that are drafted high need speed and coverage ability to counter the spread offenses and aerial attacks that are so prevalent right now. Queen started for only one year at LSU, but displayed his sideline to sideline speed, coverage ability, and willingness to stop the run. Because he's only been a starter for one year, Queen needs more reps to fully utilize his physical abilities and be a disruptor for an NFL team. However, not many linebackers coming in to the league have the natural abilities Patrick has, making him deserving of a first round pick.

Jacksonville has been a team that's embraced athletic linebackers for a while now. Their middle linebacker Myles Jack also played running back at UCLA, and their other star linebacker Telvin Smith was a speedster before he stepped away from football last year. Queen could come in and replace the much missed Smith, and solidify a promising front seven that is now filled with young superstars. In this mock, the Jaguars have now taken Derrick Brown and Patrick Queen. The Jaguars aren't going to be contenders this year, but with these two rookies they will be capable of holding their own.

21. Philadelphia Eagles- Justin Jefferson, WR LSU

2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU ...
Photo by Matthew Emons

Jefferson was limited in 2018 because of a run heavy offense, but when offensive coordinator Joe Brady arrived in Baton Rouge and installed his pass oriented offense everything changed. Justin exploded in the 2019-20 season, catching the most passes (111) and coming in second in receiving touchdowns (18) in the nation. Jefferson has great hands, separation skills, and the ability to make leaping and acrobatic catches. His one concern among scouts was his speed, but at the combine he ran an impressive 4.43 40 yard dash, proving those who doubted him wrong. Jefferson is a great receiver in a loaded WR class, so the range of his draft position could be as high as top 15, or as low as the second round. Wherever he goes, Jefferson is an excellent player that will make an impact.

The Eagles could look at corner with this pick, but Jefferson is too good to pass up for the team at the 21st pick. Philly made the playoffs last year, but were limited on offense because of injuries to receivers Alshon Jeffery and Desean Jackson. Jackson is aging, and Jeffery has had injury problems his whole career. Philadelphia would be wise to invest in a player like Jefferson, who can play the slot receiver position while Jackson and Jeffery are on the field, and can play wherever the team needs him when they aren't.

22. Minnesota Vikings- Tee Higgins, WR Clemson

2020 NFL draft: Tee Higgins (WR, Clemson) draft profile

Higgins is the long, tall receiver that QBs can throw to anywhere in his area and he can go catch it. He has the balance to be a decent route runner despite his size, and 4.5 speed to threaten downfield. Some concerns about Higgins' game are that he needs to improve his releases and strength to excel in the pros. Yet the fact remains that Higgins has a high floor, high ceiling range of potential, and worst case scenario he can be a team's WR2.

The Vikings traded away WR Stefon Diggs this offseason, and their receiving corps right now is basically just Adam Thielen, who is coming off of year plagued with injury. Minnesota is another team that will absolutely look at corner in the first round; the team lost three starters in free agency. Higgins is the pick here though, and a good one at that. The Vikings would be extremely hard to stop in the redzone with Higgins. They already have a great run game, two tight ends that can threaten as receivers, and Thielen in the slot. Gary Kubiak, the offensive coordinator, would love giving his QB Kirk Cousins an Andre Johnson-sized WR who can win on jump balls in the endzone. That's what Higgins can be for this team.

23. New England Patriots- AJ Epenesa, DL Iowa

NFL draft profile: Dolphins target A.J. Epenesa of Iowa - South ...

Epenesa has been a playmaker at Iowa for a while now, getting double digit sacks two years in a row now. He's more of a big, power guy than an end who kills tackles with his speed, but that should fit well with some teams, especially those that primarily run three man fronts. Epenesa improved his game bit by bit each year at Iowa, and while he's been a bit overshadowed this offseason, last year he was considered a top draft pick in the class of '20.

Bill Belichick deploys multiple fronts, and highly values d-linemen who can play different positions, depending on the situation. With Epenesa's ability to play as a 5 technique end (the outside shoulder of the offensive tackle) and some 3 technique in the middle he could be very valuable to the Patriots' system. Epenesa's consistency and never give up attitude on every snap will appeal to New England's organization, and he could carve out a Rob Ninkovich-type role for himself on the defense for years to come.

24. New Orleans Saints- Trevon Diggs, CB Alabama

2020 NFL mock draft: Tennessee Titans select CB Trevon Diggs ...
Photo by Daniel Dunn

If the last name Diggs sounds familiar, it's because Trevon is indeed Stefon's brother. But Trevon is good enough to be known as more than just someone's little brother. He's a corner that used to be a wide receiver, and you can see it on film. He recognizes and breaks on route combinations, and isn't easy to fool. He also has great hands for a corner, meaning he gets his team some much needed takeaways where others might settle for a pass breakup. The downside of Diggs' game are his somewhat slow movement speed and lackluster tackling. His ball hawking abilities are too good to pass up for too long in the draft though, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him in the first to second round.

New Orleans tried to pair corner Marshon Lattimore with Eli Apple, but Apple didn't play up to par, and he was let go in free agency. The Saints have a roster with very few holes, and as long as Drew Brees is still there they remain Super Bowl contenders. Earlier in the offseason it was thought that the team would add a receiver in the draft to pair with Michael Thomas, but they already signed Emmaunel Sanders to be that guy. With Diggs, the Saints get an experienced corner to help the secondary cover NFC opponents like the Falcons, Buccaneers, and more. If New Orleans' defense can keep offenses from scoring in big moments they might finally get to the big game again. Hopefully, Diggs will be the final piece in the championship puzzle.

25. Minnesota Vikings- Josh Jones, OT Houston

Josh Jones, T, Houston | | pantagraph.com
Photo by Joe Calomeni

A natural mover in pass protection and strong enough to clear the way in the run game, Jones has skills to build upon to become an NFL starter very soon. He played at Houston, a part of AAC, so his opposition was questioned initially, but he held his own at Senior Bowl practice and tested well at the combine. There are a lot of teams that need an offensive tackle, and Jones has been rightfully moving upwards in draft hype conversations. Expect him to go in the 20-30 range.

"The Vikings don't draft a corner in the first round? But Mike Zimmer loves drafting first round corners!" No, they don't in this scenario, and here's why. A team can never have enough great offensive linemen, and that's what Josh Jones can be. He was a four year starter at Houston, and has the movement ability to be a cut above other tackles in a zone run scheme like what the Vikings run. Starting left tackle Riley Reiff has two years left on his deal, but has struggled at times. In Minnesota, Jones can either take time and replace Reiff after his contract expires or come in and win the job early.

26. Miami Dolphins- Grant Delpit, S LSU

LSU Safety Grant Delpit Declares for 2020 NFL Draft After CFP ...

Delpit has been a much debated about prospect heading into the draft. Some look at how he was an interception machine in 2018, how he continued his success in 2019 (winning the Thorpe award for best defensive back in the country), and say he should go in the top half of the first round. Others see his struggles tackling, his injury history, and his inconsistent play, and claim he's a second rounder. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and it only takes one team to select him. All questions about who goes where will be answered this weekend, and I think Delpit makes the first round.

The Dolphins continue their building of the defense here with the selection of Delpit. Miami already has two top corners in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, and could have a formidable secondary with the addition of some top safety prospects. Delpit's coverage ability would frighten opposing QBs, who wouldn't have any room for error when throwing against the 'Fins. If Miami wants to eventually be the best they'll have to beat the best, and right now the best is Kansas City and their aerial attack. Putting together a secondary to combat the best offenses is definitely a favorable option for a defense oriented coach like Brian Flores.

27. Seattle Seahawks- Yetur Gross Matos, DE Penn State

5 Bold Predictions For Penn State Football In 2018 | Roar Lions Roar
Photo by Adriana Lacy

Gross Matos is a long limbed defensive end, who can use his long arms in the run game to extend linemen away from him, and then attack the ball carrier. He sometimes slips through zone schemes and gets valuable tackles for loss as well. Right now, playing the run is his best trait.  His pass rushing is very raw. He'll show on one play how fast and flexible he can be running around the edge, but often times he doesn't have a move or counter move to maximize his rushing talents. Some NFL teams may see what Gross Matos can be and draft him early.

Knowing general manager John Schneider's tendencies, the 'Hawks will likely trade back in the draft and acquire more picks, but if they don't Gross Matos is a player that the organization would be interested in choosing. With Jadaveon Clowney most likely leaving, Seattle needs to retool their defensive line, despite drafting LJ Collier in the 1st last year. Pete Carroll and his staff are known for developing overlooked players. After waiting almost the entire first round to hear his name called, Gross Matos should be delighted to hear he's going to Seattle.

28. Baltimore Ravens- Michael Pittman Jr., WR USC

USC football seniors are few but 3 Trojans stand tall – Orange ...
Photo by Hans Gutknecht

Pittman is the son of former running back Michael Sr., and he inherited all the right athletic traits. He's a fast and balanced route runner, who you can see has worked on his craft. He was also a team captain at USC, and led the program through a difficult senior year, in which the Trojans lost their starting QB early in the season. Despite that, Pittman still put up great stats. He had 101 receptions, 1275 yards, and 11 touchdowns, and USC went 8-5. Michael Jr.'s grit through adversity should galvanize NFL teams to take him early in this year's draft.

Baltimore lit the league on fire last year offensively, but when Tennessee slowed their rushing attack in the playoffs the team was eliminated because the passing game couldn't bring them back. The Ravens have the beginnings of a great passing game with Mark Andrews and "Hollywood" Brown, but an extra playmaker on the outside could push them to even greater places. Michael Pittman Jr. is a well rounded receiver that would fit well playing alongside the other two gifted receivers. Lamar Jackson approves this selection.

29. Tennessee Titans- Jonathan Taylor, RB Wisconsin

Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor packs on the muscle
Photo by Andy Manis

Jonathan Taylor has every skill a running back needs to have a great career in the NFL. He has sub 4.4 speed, elusiveness, power, vision, and an improving catching ability out of the backfield. In 3 years at Wisconsin he totaled over 6,000 yards in scrimmage. He put the team on his back each game, and despite being the bell cow back he never had injury problems. His kryptonite was fumbling the ball, a serious issue that can be corrected. The running back position may be devalued somewhat this year, but Taylor should be among the first two at the position taken.

Finally, a running back is chosen in the first round of the 2020 draft. Tennesse could go a few places with the 29th pick; coach Vrabel could improve his defense, replace right tackle Jack Conklin after he left in free agency, or even select another receiver for Ryan Tannehill, who signed a new contract to be the franchise QB. Choosing Taylor is a commitment to keep the offense's forte, the run game, a problem for opponents. Last year, while most of the league zigged, creating offenses that relied on passing and big plays, the Titans zagged, and rode RB Derrick Henry to the AFC title game. Henry is now on the franchise tag, meaning he has one more year with the team before hitting free agency. Jonathan Taylor was one of the top rushers in NCAA history while at Wisconsin, and could replace Henry after this year if the team opts to save money and let him go.
30. Green Bay Packers- Jordan Love, QB Utah State

Patriots draft rumors 2020: Utah State QB Jordan Love has drawn ...
Photo by Gregory Shamus

Love is one of the most interesting prospects in this class because while he has displayed some signs of being a terrific QB, he also has displayed everything that makes a player a bust at the next level. Love can heave a football 60-70 yards downfield, can throw with touch, accuracy, and anticipation. Love also turns the ball over a lot, and is inconsistent with his accuracy and anticipation. Love excelled in 2018 with a good team and coaches, but was less of a superstar with a new staff and most of his teammates gone in 2019. Jordan Love will be very reliant on his surroundings when considering his potential as a franchise QB. If he's drafted with a team that has a plan on how to train and develop him over time, he will succeed. If Love is drafted by a team that needs a starter immediately he could develop bad habits, lose confidence, and become a bust.

After the Titans chose their running back heir, the Packers choose Jordan Love to be the heir to Aaron Rodgers. Much like when Rodgers roamed the benches while Brett Favre ran the Packers, Love could sit and learn the intricacies of the pro game while Rodgers is at the helm. Green Bay will be tempted to give Rodgers another wideout, but with so much depth at the position they can wait and select someone later. A QB like Love won't make it past the middle of the second round, so if they want to prepare for the future this is their best chance to do so without trading up in a future draft.

31. San Francisco 49ers- Jalen Reagor, WR TCU

TCU football: Jalen Reagor on verge of being top WR in country ...
Photo by David Kent

Reagor was the fastest man in the Big 12 for several years, but he's not just a pure speed guy. He can make the quick cuts needed to breakaway from corners, make leaping catches, and more. This offseason, Reagor also proved he can put on weight or keep it low, depending on what his team needs from him. His combine time was slower than expected because he had put on ten pounds to get to 205. Leading up to his pro day though, he had slimmed back down, cutting off that ten pounds to show off his speed. He ran an unofficial 4.28. This willingness and ability to shift weight to do what his team needs should intrigue front offices, and boost him up their boards just a little more.

The 'Niners have found gems in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Under coach Kyle Shanahan, Reagor could be the next gem San Fransisco finds. Reagor has field stretching ability that could give his offense either huge plays or opportunities for his teammates running short or intermediate routes. He also proved to be a weapon on toss sweeps after going in motion, that challenge the defense horizontally. With Reagor and Samuel both going in motion before the snap, defenses would get really confused on where to go. San Fransisco lost Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, but with this selection they wouldn't miss a beat.

32. Kansas City Chiefs- Kristian Fulton, CB LSU

A look at LSU Tigers football defensive back Kristian Fulton
Photo by Kim Klement

Fulton is a skilled cover man who can press at the line and has proved to be aggressive when going after pass break ups. His 4.5 speed at the combine is average, but it was nice to see him test there instead of below average because he's not Usain Bolt on tape. LSU is known for producing top notch corners, and Fulton had a good run his senior year. He will be a late first or early second round pick.

Chiefs fans should be very happy knowing that their championship team is returning most everyone from last year. Kansas City's defense started off slow last season, but caught fire later as they learned Steve Spagnuolo's system. The secondary is led by a fantastic group of safeties and superstar Tyrann Mathieu, but could do even greater things with better corner play. Kristian Fulton would benefit from playing in a zone system like the Chiefs and learning from a leader like Mathieu, who also attended LSU. The Chiefs would benefit from having a talented corner like Fulton, who can make plays on the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes on the field.




Stats and Player Measurables via ESPN and NFL.com

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Week 7 Fantasy Starts



QB

Jared Goff
Fantasy owners who started Goff last week are likely thinking of benching him this week for his terrible performance against the 49ers. However, that might be a mistake. The Falcons secondary was torn apart last week by Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. The Rams have a lot of talent in the passing game still. This could be a retaliation week for Goff.


Carson Wentz

Going into this week, Philadelphia head coach Doug Pederson said in an interview that he expects to win against the Cowboys this week and officially claim the top of the NFC East. Confidence is high for the Eagles, despite a tough loss against the Vikings a week ago. Wentz is possibly getting receiver Desean Jackson back this week, and the Cowboys are dealing with a rash of injuries. An inspired Wentz performance could be coming.


Daniel Jones

The Giants suffered against a superb Patriots defense, but this week they get to play the Cardinals. Jones made some throws against New England that proved why he was a first round pick. If he can avoid more rookie mistakes this week, he could have a boom week now that stars like Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley are coming back from injury.


RB


Tevin Coleman

Since returning from his ankle injury, Coleman has been getting around 20 touches a game for the best running offense in the league. His pass catching has value in PPR leagues, and this week against Washington he’ll be in the lead for likely most of the game, meaning more running opportunities. Coleman is a flex play at least.


Josh Jacobs

The Raiders have been using Jacobs as their workhorse tailback, and against the Packers that could equate to a good fantasy day. The Packers looked better than expected against the run on Monday night, limiting Lion’s RBs to minimal yards, but Kerryon Johnson still found the endzone. Jacobs floor is similar to Johnson’s Monday night game, and his ceilingis high. Jacobs is worth a start this week.


Devin Singletary

This week may be the week Singletary finally returns from his hamstring injury. He’s had time to fully heal, and the Bills play the Dolphins this week. Singletary was a much better halfback than Frank Gore in the pass game and in yards per carry when he was healthy. The Bills could attempt to feed him and let him get back to his dominant ways against Miami. I consider him a possible flex play, but watch his injury status and look at your other options before throwing him in the starting lineup.


WR


T.Y. Hilton

The same thing happens every year: T.Y. Hilton destroys the Houston secondary. A couple of weeks ago, it looked like Houston may have finally found the solution to slow T.Y. - Bradley Roby- but he will miss the week with a hamstring injury. Him and Jonathan Joseph will likely be out, meaning there’s not a top corner to stop Hilton. T.Y. is a must start.


Julian Edelman

Just a month ago, the Patriots were among the best at wide receiver. Now, in week 7, AB has been cut, Josh Gordon will likely play limited snaps after getting hurt last week, and N’Keal Harry might be coming off of the injured reserve list. However, Julian Edelman is still there for Tom Brady. Against a Jets defense that blitzes a lot, Brady will have to throw more quick passes and checkdowns. Edelman could have a big week because he is the WR1 on the team, and in PPR his value is even higher against the Jets.


D.K. Metcalf

Right now Seattle QB Russell Wilson is at the top of most MVP conversations and the Ravens defense has taken a considerable step back from their usual dominant ways. Baltimore will likely double team Tyler Lockett, and TE Will Dissly is now out for the season with an achilles injury. This week, that could mean more targets for D.K. Plus, if new Baltimore cornerback Marcus Peters plays this week, he could still be catching up with his new playbook, and make a costly mistake that could give Metcalf a touchdown. All it takes is one big play for a deep threat like Metcalf. He is a possible flex play this week.


TE


Evan Engram

Now that Saquon Barkley is back, the Giants will be able to move the ball more on offense, meaning more opportunities for Engram. If New York is in the red zone often, Engram has a high probability of scoring against the Cardinals' bad TE defense.


Noah Fant

Fant had a terrible fantasy performance last week after I predicted he’d be a worthy start. I’m going to stick with him one more week though; this week, the Broncos play a beat up Chiefs defense who was recently run over by the Texans tight ends. If the Broncos play the Chiefs close at Mile High, Fant could have a good fantasy game.




D/ST


New Orleans Saints

The formula to shutting down the Bear's offense is what the Packers did week one: shut down the run, and force Chicago to throw. The Saints have a stout run defense, and enough playmakers in the secondary to force a turnover or two. Turnovers are what you need in fantasy, so give the Saints a start this week.


San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have established themselves as a top fantasy defense, and should be rostered in every league. If they’re not rostered in your league, pick them up this week. They play a terrible Redskins offense, who is trying to focus their efforts on the run game. Running the ball won’t work against San Fran, who have five first round picks on their defensive line. Play the 49ers this week.


Detroit Lions

The Lions were ripped off against the Packers. After a solid defensive night, the refs threw the game in the Packers favor with some terrible calls. They are now last in a close NFC North, and will look to recover by winning this week’s NFC North matchup: the Vikings. Minnesota won’t be as effective in the pass game against Detroit, and the Lions have a chance to make some big fantasy plays. The Lions are startable in a deep league, or for a fantasy team that has their starting defense on a bye week.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Week 6 Fantasy Starts



QB


Gardner Minshew

A win at home against the Saints would be a huge boost to the Jaguars, who remain a mystery when looking at possible playoff teams this year. For Minshew, this win may mean even more; if Gardner can pull off a win this week with another good performance, he may remain the starting QB even if Nick Foles does return. The Saints run defense is stout, but their secondary can be beat. If you are in a bind at quarterback, give him a shot.



Matthew Stafford

The Lions winning against the Packers would be huge this week. With the win, Detroit would be first place in the NFC North. The team got an extra week to prepare for this game, and should be ready to play. Meanwhile, Packer’s safety Darnell Savage was seen in a walking boot Tuesday after getting his ankle twisted against Dallas. If he doesn’t play, Stafford’s value increases even more. Expect big numbers from Matt on Monday Night Football.



Colt McCoy

Washington head coach Jay Gruden was fired this weekend, leaving the team with even more questions than before. The team may be in trouble long term, but fortunately for them they play the dreadful Dolphins this week. With Dwayne Haskins the obvious long term quarterback, and Case Keenum the QB with the big contract, Colt McCoy needs to prove himself in every game he starts to stay in the league. Miami is a good team to have a statement game against.

*UPDATE: Case Keenum will start this week, do not start McCoy



RB

James Conner

With QB Mason Rudolph and backup RB Jaylen Samuels both out with injuries the Steelers' offense is considerably weaker, but Conner will have to be fed. He’ll be featured in both the run and pass game. Hopefully he’s not your RB1, but either way it probably wouldn't be wise to bench him.



Sony Michel

Michel was relied upon a lot Sunday against the Redskins, and should be used a lot again against the Giants. The Pats defense will definitely take advantage of the Giants offense missing most of their stars, and so once again the positive game script for New England means more run plays. The Giants defense isn’t exactly composed of All-Pros either. Expect Sony to run all over them.



Carlos Hyde

Since week 3 against the Ravens, opponent’s game plans against the Chiefs have been adjusted. Teams against the Chiefs are trying to establish the run, and it’s leading to closer games. Hyde is averaging 4.2 yard per carry this year on 14.6 hand offs a game. The Texans offensive line is improving every week. This past weekend, Kansas City’s defensive line looked a little worse for wear after Chris Jones exited the game. Keep an eye on Jones’ status this week; if he can’t play Hyde’s value goes up even more. Play Carlos in your Flex if you don’t have a must-start player there already.




WR

Larry Fitzgerald

The Falcons defense has looked especially bad in the secondary as of late, allowing the Texans to move the ball through the air at will last week, and the Titans the week before. The Cardinals have an air raid offensive system, meaning they barrage their opponents with a variety of passing plays. With RB David Johnson questionable because of a back injury, Arizona is likely planning to pass even more than usual. Fitzgerald is an all time great, and already a favorite target of QB Kyler Murray. Let Larry loose this weekend- he’s in for a good game.



Josh Gordon

The Giants surprisingly haven’t been the worst against the run this year; however, their weakness is playing against the pass. New York will likely try to stop the run and limit Brady’s short pass attempts to force Tom to throw longer, more difficult passes. Josh Gordon is a burner, and is too big and fast for any Giants corner. He could have a touchdown on a big play this week, making him worthy of a flex or WR2 play, depending on your team’s situation.



Will Fuller


When he has a clean pocket, Deshaun Watson is possibly the most dangerous QB in football. Last week, Watson wasn’t sacked for the first time in a long time, and had a historic game. Fuller was on the other end of 14 completions against the Falcons, and could have more big play opportunities this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s Chris Jones may be out, meaning defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have to blitz to create pressure. If he does, Fuller will have one on one coverage with one of the Chiefs terrible corners. I’d guess Fuller gets another touchdown this week.




Terry McLaurin

Miami’s best corner Xavien Howard may shadow McLaurin, but if this is anything close to an even game, Terry could get the targets and yards needed for a good fantasy performance. Last week was a down week for McLaurin, but he was followed by the NFL’s best corner, Stephon Gilmore. Xavien Howard isn’t on Gilmore’s level. Terry should be started again this week.




TE

Noah Fant

The Titans couldn’t stop the TE position again last week, giving up the game clinching score to Lee Smith, a tight end for the Bills. Noah Fant is an athletic freak that should be in the Broncos offensive plans. Expect red zone targets for Fant, which could translate into a touchdown.



Chris HerndonThe Jets QB Sam Darnold had a good connection at the end of the year last year, but Herndon missed the beginning of the year with a suspension. Now that Darnold and Herndon are back they will try to pick up where they left off. New York has a tight end in nearly all of their offensive formations, and Herndon is the kind of athlete you want at your fantasy tight end position. If your team needs a TE, at least pick him up this week and see if he performs well in his return game. But keep an eye on his injury report; as of this writing, he is questionable with a hamstring pull.




D/ST



Los Angeles Chargers

Pittsburgh is down to their 3rd string quarterback now that Mason Rudolph is out with a concussion. This means the Steelers' offense will be very one dimensional and predictable, giving the Chargers a major advantage. If you have this defense or they are on the waiver wire, give them a start this week.



Baltimore Ravens


Baltimore’s opponent this week is the Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens 3-2 record is the top in the AFC North, but Cincy and Cleveland are not far behind, meaning this game has more significance than anticipated in the preseason. Luckily for the Ravens, AJ Green and John Ross are out, and the Bengals offensive line is, well, offensive. This defense is good enough to take advantage of that. Start them this week.



Dallas Cowboys

Sam Darnold and Chris Herndon are back for the Jets, but it won’t be enough to beat Dallas. The Cowboys should be highly motivated coming into this game after losing twice in a row. New York’s offense is good enough to make this a risky play, but the combination of a rusty Darnold and a bad offensive line may make this a good fantasy week for the Dallas defense.

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Week 5 Fantasy Tips and Predictions



QB

Jacoby Brissett

For the Colts to be competitive in this game, they must keep up with the scoring of the Chiefs. They may start with a focus on the run, but the the Chiefs are weakest in the secondary. Indianapolis’ offensive line has the star power to slow the Chiefs awesome pass rush, and will give Brissett time to find his teammates. Jacoby was highly efficient in his first month of the season, and the trend should continue.




Kyler Murray

The Arizona versus Cincinnati game will likely be a back and forth offensive matchup, so Murray has a chance to make this a big fantasy game. Mason Rudolph dinked and dunked his way to a solid but not spectacular game against Cincy Monday night, and Arizona does a lot of short passes as well. Kyler can be a solid play this week.




RB

David Montgomery

This rookie running back hasn’t lived up to his draft position thus far, but with starting QB Mitchell Trubisky out with an injury, Montgomery may have a chance to shine. Chase Daniel is a decent backup, but he likely won’t have the offensive gameplan centered around him. This means the running game will be more of a focus this week against the Raiders. Also, Oakland linebacker Vontaze Burfict was suspended for the season after last week’s game, so the Raiders may be adjusting to his loss - he was a leader on the defense. Try Montgomery again this week, and expect his increase in touches to equate to fantasy relevance.




Austin Ekeler

The second best fantasy running back to this point, Ekeler is a talent that has been a must start. However, fellow Charger Melvin Gordon returns this week, giving some owners doubts. My advice is to hold onto him, and even start him this week. Head coach Anthony Lynn said Gordon may still be given limited snaps in his first week back. Ekeler is also a weapon in the passing game, which is really important considering Los Angeles has only one true threat at wide receiver right now, Keenan Allen. If Ekeler continues to be active in the passing game, which he should be, he remains a PPR value. The Denver Broncos are this week’s opponent, and they have been bad against running backs. Hold on to Ekeler, and play him this week.




Sony Michel

The Redskins don’t stand a chance this week. Starting QB Case Keenum was seen in a walking boot Wednesday, and head coach Jay Gruden was even quoted saying that they don’t have an offensive gameplan yet. The last quote is likely an exaggeration, but it goes without saying Washington will struggle. That means the Patriots will be in the lead most of the game, slowly grinding away the clock with their running game. Michel has been a disappointment, but I think he finds the endzone this week, and will get the yards needed to be a RB2 or Flex play.




WR

Deandre Hopkins

“Nuk” hasn’t caught a touchdown since week one, but owners can’t afford to panic. He remains one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL, and has an easier defense to face this week. The Falcons allowed Tennessee to throw three touchdowns to wideouts last week, and the Titans have one of the weakest receiving corps in the league. Falcon’s safety Keanu Neal also went down with an Achilles injury. Deandre will have a big week and remind everyone why he was a first round pick this year.




Adam Thielen

The Vikings looked absolutely terrible against the Bears. Their offensive line was shredded, and Cousins couldn’t throw downfield. After the game, Thielen called out his quarterback and criticized the passing game. This week, the coaches are going to look for ways to restore their offense’s confidence in the passing game, and they have the perfect opponent to accomplish the task. The Giants looked good against a rookie quarterback with no receiving weapons last week, but this week they will be tested. Thielen will likely be targeted a lot to make up for last week’s missteps, and will be a fantasy starter again. Don’t give Thielen away in a trade or bench him. Give Thielen a chance again this week, and see if he can bounce back.




Marquise Brown

After a hot start to the season, “Hollywood” has been less relevant as a fantasy receiver. This week, the Ravens face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who finally got their first win in week four. The Steeler’s usual struggles against the pass were masked last week behind the team’s eight sacks. With that many sacks, the opponent’s passing game is really weakened and predictable. The Ravens have a good offensive line, and are very unpredictable offensively. Brown is too speedy for any corner on the Steelers, and will get some big gains. Expect him to have another good game.




TE

Dawson Knox

This rookie has been used more in the passing game lately for the Bills, and may be worth a spot on your roster. This week, the Bills face the Titans, who have given up a lot of points to opposing tight ends. In deep leagues, or in an emergency, Knox could be worth a shot this week as your starting tight end.




Tyler Eifert

The Bengals are going up against the Cardinals this week, and that should be enough of an explanation for starting Eifert. The Cardinals still haven’t had a week where they’ve slowed the tight end position, and Eifert and QB Andy Dalton have showed that they can be a good duo in the past. Try Eifert this week if you don’t have a better option.




Will Dissly

According to ESPN’s fantasy app, Dissly is only being started in 50% of leagues. He’s been the sixth best PPR tight end thus far though, and has averaged 19 points over the last three games. Russell Wilson has shown he has faith in Dissly, so you should as well. Put him in your starting lineup this week.




D/ST

Buffalo Bills

The final score last week showed a Buffalo loss, but a closer look will reveal that this defense is legit. The Patriots had to have a blocked punt touchdown to pull away in this game. Brady threw his first interception of the year. The Bills haven’t allowed more than 20 points this year, and I wouldn’t expect the Titans to break that streak. The Bills defense is a good play this week.




Tennessee Titans

On the other side of the Bills-Titans game, Tennessee has a good matchup as well. Bills QB Josh Allen may or may not play because of a concussion. His backup Matt Barkley hasn’t been that productive since entering the league. The Titans can stop the run, which is the Bill’s usual offensive focus. When Tennessee stops the run, they’ll have opportunities to make big plays against the pass. Big plays equal big fantasy points, so give the Titans defense a start this week.




Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles defense hasn’t been good for fantasy, but they face a perfect matchup this week to make some noise. The Jet’s quarterback Sam Darnold may come back this week, but he likely won’t. That leaves backup Luke Falk, who is just as bad as the rest of the Jets offense. New York’s only good player on offense is running back Le’Veon Bell, but the Eagles are deep on their defensive line, and will shut him down. If you’re in a pinch at the D/ST, start the Eagles.




Fantasy Tip of the Week




Having a good receiving corps in fantasy can be difficult at times. With so many names to choose from, and so much week to week scoring variation, it’s hard to know who to go after in drafts and on the waiver wire. This week, I have some tips on how to find receivers in fantasy.



Target %: Certain receivers are given more opportunities than others, and more opportunities means more fantasy points. In PPR (points per reception) this is especially important because players with a lot of catches are just as valuable as the guy who catches a fifty yard bomb. Keep an eye on this stat though; throughout the season, injuries and roster moves will impact who gets opportunities.


Quarterback connection: This is very much related to target %, but it’s not the same. As you watch a game, watch which receivers the QB throws to in big moments. This was seen a lot in the duo of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. When Big Ben was throwing near the endzone, he looked to Brown, and threw him the ball even if it was a bad choice to do so. If you feel like a certain QB and WR have a connection, go after them. The receivers who have a good relationship with their QB will have more touchdowns.


Team pass %: This is pretty simple. Teams that pass more than others create more opportunities for WR fantasy points.


An increase in receptions several weeks in a row: This is a sign that the coaches and players have an increased faith in the player’s talent. This is something that should especially be considered when looking at rookies and young players who are still learning. If you find this trend, you may have a breakout player on your hands.

Drops and/or fumbles: If a player has been dropping the ball or fumbling a bit too much lately, you should stop before picking them up. Unless they are immensely talented, the coaches and players around them will have less faith in them, meaning less opportunities in the future.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Week 3 Game Predictions



Titans vs Jaguars (TNF)

The Jaguars have a rookie QB, are dealing with injuries (CB AJ Bouye), and off the field issues (Jalen Ramsey has requested a trade). Tennessee narrowly lost to the Colts last week, and they know they need a win this week to truly contend in the AFC South. Jacksonville is at home, but I think they come up short in a defensive battle Thursday night. The Titans win.




Dolphins vs Cowboys

The Dolphins aren’t trying to win this year. The Cowboys are all in on a playoff run, and Dak Prescott has looked excellent with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore calling plays. The Cowboys win.




Bengals vs Bills

The Bengals have looked better than expected under Zac Taylor. However, they are terrible on defense and are already banged up on offense. The Bills are playing at home, have a good defense, and are on a hot streak (2-0). The Bills win.




Lions vs Eagles

The Eagles dealt with so many injuries Sunday night that they cancelled practice on Wednesday. Their secondary has had a hard time keeping up with opposing receivers, and their offense had a hard time moving the ball without wideouts Alshon Jeffery and Desean Jackson. The Lions have a sturdy defense already, and their passing game has enough weapons to expose the Eagles. The Lions win.




Jets vs Patriots

The Jets are down two quarterbacks already, and their defensive star, safety Jamal Adams, seems disgruntled by the team’s performance. The Patriots have looked outstanding on offense and defense. The Patriots win.




Falcons vs Colts

Jacoby Brissett has been decent as a starting QB for the Colts since the surprising Andrew Luck retirement. Their offensive line is also a strength. The Falcons won an important game against the Eagles, and should be confident right now. This will be a close game. I think the Colts escape with a narrow victory by exposing the Falcons’ weak offensive line.




Raiders vs Vikings

The Raiders’ hot start was quickly cooled by the Chiefs last week. Their defense misses safety Jonathan Abrams, and their offensive line gave up a lot of pressure. The Vikings still aren’t great, but they run the ball well and rush the passer, something the Raiders will have trouble stopping. The Vikings win.




Ravens vs Chiefs

This should be the best game of the week. Lamar Jackson is much improved as a passer, and the Ravens will keep the notoriously bad Chiefs defense on their heels. The Chiefs are moving the ball at will against any team they face, and the Ravens just gave rookie Kyler Murray 350 yards through the air. This will be a high scoring game, and the winner will be the team with the most takeaways. The Ravens win in a nailbiter.




Broncos vs Packers

The Packers are mediocre on offense, but their defense has stepped up in big moments to have them at 2-0. The Broncos defense hasn’t looked as good as they should be, and their offense isn’t better. The Packers defense will step it up at home and force some mistakes. The Packers win.




Panthers vs Cardinals

Cam Newton is out, leaving Kyle Allen to start at QB for the Panthers. Carolina’s offense will struggle against a surprisingly good Arizona run defense and pass rush. The Panther’s defense is sturdy, but Kyler Murray has done well against some good defenses already. The Cardinals win.




Giants vs Buccaneers

The Giants are giving rookie Daniel Jones his first start this week. Tampa Bay’s been good on defense through two weeks, and they are looking to extend that streak to three. Jameis Winston had a better week 2 than expected, and is trying to build some momentum as well. The Giants defense will be easy pickings. The Buccaneers win.




Saints vs Seahawks

The Saints lost the heart of the team, quarterback Drew Brees, to a thumb injury, and he won’t play this game. Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill will split snaps trying to replace him, but could struggle playing in Seattle if the 12th man is in full force. Russell Wilson is also a deep passing ace, and the Saints have given up some big plays to speed receivers. The Seahawks win.




Texans vs Chargers

Both of these teams have good rosters, but are 1-1 after starting the season with some close games. This will be a back and forth game that would be favorable for Los Angeles, but their home field advantage is hardly an advantage as they wait for their new stadium to be completed. After a back and forth game, the Texans take home a victory.




Steelers vs 49ers

Preseason expectations for these teams have both been flipped already. The Steelers lost star QB Ben Roethlisberger for the year last week, and replace him with young Mason Rudolph. Meanwhile, the 49ers have looked formidable on both sides of the ball. The 49ers win.




Rams vs Browns (SNF)

Los Angeles is a strong team once again, and they travel to Cleveland to play the Browns, who despite a week 2 win have looked shaky at times. The Browns haven’t played a team of this caliber yet, and the young team will have a hard time bouncing back after an early L.A. lead. The Rams win.




Bears vs Redskins (MNF)



On paper, the Bears should easily take this week 3 win, but their offense isn’t good enough to get a decisive victory yet. The Bears will play down to their competition in Washington, and the Redskins will take advantage. Redskins win.

Week 3 Starts and Fantasy Football Beginner Tip

Sometimes you can feel great about your fantasy team because you have a set of NFL players who are obvious starts each week. Other times, your fantasy team may be struggling, and you’re left with a tough decision on who to start. The following players are likely on your bench or on the waiver wire, but could lead you to a big win this week.



Quarterback (QB)

Kirk Cousins

Cousins has had a slow start to his fantasy season. Week 1 Kirk only needed to throw 10 times, and while he looked efficient, that’s not gonna do it in fantasy. A shaky week 2 in Lambeau may have some owners wary of playing him, but Oakland is too good of a matchup to not consider giving him a start. Jonathan Abrams is out with a shoulder injury for the Raiders, and their secondary just got shredded at home by the Chiefs. A bounce back week is coming for Cousins and the Vikings, so if you don’t have a clear starter at QB, give him a shot week 3.


Jimmy Garappolo

The Steelers have now had two games in a row where they’ve given up three touchdowns to their opposition’s passing game. The 49ers are 2-0, and Gararppolo has looked good his first two games. Free Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is on his way to the Steelers via trade, but he should have a minimal impact in his first game as he learns the Steelers’ playbook. Expect two or more touchdowns for Jimmy G when the Niners rely on their passing game in the red zone.


Philip Rivers

Houston has done well against the run, but their pass defense and pass rush have been subpar. This is a good recipe for 30 or more passing attempts by Rivers, who is a veteran quarterback. The Texans did well against Jacksonville’s predictable offense last week, but suffered against the Saints, who attacked the defenses in a variety of ways. The Chargers should be scoring a lot in a shootout this weekend, and Philip Rivers should be a starting fantasy quarterback.


Running Back (RB)


Devonta Freeman

Freeman has had a rough start to the season, but could turn it around week 3. There are still valid concerns here with Freeman, backup Ito Smith has been involved in the offense a little too much for comfort, and Freeman hasn’t shown up against tougher competition. However, the Falcons play the Colts this week, who have allowed several running back touchdowns this year already. I expect Freeman to find the end zone this week, and at least be a worthy Flex play.


Matt Breida

Breida hasn’t been the workhorse back in the Niners backfield, despite injuries to several RBs above him on the depth chart. Be that as it may, the Shanahan system is a great one for running back production, and Breida had 121 yards on the ground against the Bengals. This week, Breida plays the Steelers, who have a better front seven on defense than Cincy, but Breida could still find the end zone and make his owners happy. Start him this week.


Malcolm Brown

Brown is a risky play with Todd Gurley starting for the Rams at running back. However, Los Angeles faces off with the Cleveland Browns this week. The Browns beat the Jets handily last week, but even a terrible team like New York exposed Cleveland’s flaws. The Browns have a tough time stopping the run, and Baker Mayfield still seems prone to turning the ball over this year. If the Rams take an early lead, the game script of this matchup will be perfect for Brown, who could get more 4th quarter touches as the Rams look to preserve Todd Gurley. In deep leagues or on a fantasy team with a thin running back corps, I’d give Brown a chance.


Frank Gore

Three factors add up this week for a Gore fantasy feast. First, the Bills play the Bengals, who have looked terrible against the run. Second, the Bills love running the ball, and center their offense around it. Third, backup Devin Singletary (who has looked great thus far) pulled his hamstring last week, and his touches will go down as a result. Start Gore as a RB2 or flex, and watch him have his best week of this season.


Wide Receiver (WR)


Mike Evans

Evans has looked like the second fiddle to fellow receiver Chris Godwin the first two weeks of the season, but make no mistake- Mike is one of the best wideouts in the NFL. He’ll be highly motivated to show his skills in a battle with the Giants this week, whose secondary is awful. This is also an important week for Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston, so expect him to look for his favorite target on multiple occasions this Sunday. Mike Evans is still a must start.


DJ Moore

At first glance, Cam Newton’s injury looks to hurt the stellar production Moore has shown us up to this point. But, after the news that Cam will likely not play this week, I am actually encouraged to play D.J. this week. Playing with a healthy backup will be better than playing with an injured Cam. Newton looked terrible against the Bucs, but Moore still put up 9 receptions for 89 yards. If Kyle Allen is the starter this week, Moore has already played two games with him at QB. The greatest receivers will have good numbers regardless of quarterback, and Moore has a chance to prove he is elite. He’ll have a good week against Arizona.


Allen Robinson

Mitch Trubisky has not started the season off with a bang, but one theme has become apparent after the Bear’s rough start: Allen Robinson is Trubisky’s go to target. Robinson looked rusty at times last year, but it should be noted he was coming off an ACL tear, and was learning Nagy’s offensive playbook. Now, he is fully healthy and ready to have a great year. Against Washington, he should have his best game of the new season.


Marvin Jones

Jones owners are likely feeling anxious about his long term value this year, but they shouldn’t fret; Jones is still a talented receiver. Philadelphia has already allowed five wide receiver touchdowns this year, including two against a bad Washington Redskins team. Jones will find the endzone this weekend, and should be a solid flex play for fantasy teams.


Tight End (TE)


Jared Cook
Drew Brees’ injury hurts the Saints offense as a whole, but it might open up Jared Cook for more targets. Oftentimes, a quarterback without much experience will look to his tight end a lot, and Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill are both young QB replacements that will split time this week against Seattle. It should also be noted that the Seahawks just allowed a young backup QB, Mason Rudolph, to throw two touchdowns to his tight end last week. If you are thin at the tight end position and have a chance to play Cook, go ahead and do it this week.


Greg Olsen

The Panthers are in a very similar situation as the Saints. Cam Newton is out with a foot injury at the moment, which means they’ll start backup Kyle Allen. Olsen looked sharp against the Buccaneers last week, and should get a lot of targets again. Carolina plays the Cardinals this week, who have been abysmal against the pass, especially against opposing tight ends. Arizona has allowed three tight end touchdowns in two weeks. Olsen is a must start this week on fantasy teams without an established star at tight end.


Defense/ Special Teams (D/ST)


Jaguars Defense/ Titans Defense

I place both of these teams together on the list because they’re in similar situations. They both play teams that have average or below average quarterbacks. They both have solid run defenders that should shut out the other team’s run heavy offense. Lastly, the game is on Thursday night, meaning both team’s offensive coordinators have had little time to prepare any schemes that would take advantage of a defensive weakness. If you have one of these defenses start them and expect a positive contribution to your fantasy team’s points.


Cowboys Defense

I’m going to make this one brief. The Cowboys defense is good. The Miami Dolphins look like they could lose to a college team this year. If there is ever a chance to play a defense against this year’s Dolphins, take it. You’ll be happy you did.


Tampa Bay Defense

It’s a small sample size, but the Buccaneers has been surprisingly good on defense this year. This week they play the Giants, an already awful team that is starting it’s rookie quarterback (Daniel Jones) for the first time. Take a chance on Tampa, and reap the benefits.




Fantasy Football Beginner Tip of the Week




(Sometimes it’s hard being a beginner in Fantasy Football. Each week I’ll try to leave a helpful tip that could help you during your fantasy season.)




The Defense/ Special Teams (D/ST) slot will not usually give your team the most points on your roster, but sometimes it can be the difference between winning and losing a game. Even the best defenses have bad games, so it is imperative to look at the defense’s opposing team each week. Here are some things to look for on the opposing team that can lead to a good week by your D/ST:



-Do they have a star player that is out with an injury? Is their backup good?


-They are starting a rookie at QB


-They have a bad offensive line, or a lot of recent injuries to their starting offensive lineman.


-Injuries or any other factor that make one position group very weak (WR, TE, RB, etc.)


-The team has had several big losses in a row


-The team has a QB who turns the ball over a lot (interceptions or fumbles)




Here are some things to look for on the opposing team that may lead to a tougher matchup than what you thought:



-An offense that scores a lot of points


-The team has won several games in a row


-The team is known for consistently beating your D/ST team


-A star player is returning from injury or another factor that kept them out for a while


-Your D/ST struggles at run defense, and the opponent is good at running the ball


-Your D/St struggles at pass defense, and the opponent is good at passing the ball


And Finally, scout your own D/ST:



Good Signs (Bad Signs would be the opposite of these points)



-The defense is healthy


-A star is returning after time away


-A star has been signed to the team


-The D/ST has done well for several weeks in a row


-After some time struggling, the team has made a change at defensive coordinator (coach in charge of the defense)




It’s possible that there are other factors I left out that you may discover for yourself! If you have the time, check NFL news from time to time, and you’ll get better at making fantasy decisions. Try it out this week, and see how you do! And remember, if you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me or leave a comment!

Friday, September 13, 2019

2019 Preseason Playoff Projections & Standings (NFC)

#1 New Orleans Saints
It’s been two heartbreaking playoff losses in a row now for the Saints, but they return many of the players who have gotten them so close to the big game. Sean Payton is one of the best offensive minds in coaching, and Dennis Allen has done good work as their DC the past few years. GM Mickey Loomis doesn’t get the credit he deserves very often; he has consistently built this roster to be a contender, and should be recognized for some very strong draft classes in recent years. The Saints Revenge Tour: Season 2 begins September 9th, on Monday Night Football.

Drew Brees is what makes this offense run so effectively, and while he does look a bit older at times, you have to think they have a shot at winning it all with him under center. Sadly, Brees’ veteran center Max Unger retired during the offseason. It looks as if this position will be filled by second round rookie Erik McCoy, a powerful run blocker. The rest of the line returns the same as it was last year, and it’s one of the NFL’s best. Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk are one of the best tackle duos in the game, and guards Andrus Peat and Larry Warford have been successful as well. Mark Ingram left in free agency to join the Ravens, but the running back corps could be the best this year. Latavious Murray signed from the Vikings, and Alvin Kamara is a superstar, on the ground and through the air. Taysom Hill is another threat in the running game- Payton loves designing plays for him, and giving opposing teams problems. In the passing game, Michael Thomas earned a big paycheck with his reliable hands. Thomas is young, but looks like an established vet, giving consistent performances every week. Ted Ginn will be the team’s deep threat, and Jared Cook came from Oakland to be New Orlean’s best receiving tight end since Jimmy Graham. He will help move the chains, and could be a red zone threat.

The Saint’s defense was close to the top in run defense last year (2nd in yards allowed/game) and did not lose any key players in the front seven. Their best defender arguably is Cameron Jordan, a sack monster. He should be a great mentor to young Marcus Davenport, who looked great when healthy last year as a rookie. In the middle, the Saints signed run stuffers Mario Edwards Jr. and Malcolm Brown in free agency for depth. Sheldon Rankins tore his ACL in the postseason, but could be back within the first six weeks to reclaim his starting defensive tackle spot. At linebacker, New Orleans still has solid player like Demario Davis who will rack up a lot of tackles, but they are not as strong against the passing game. The Saints were ranked 29th in the league last year in passing yards allowed, a surprising stat given that they have gifted players like corner Marshon Lattimore, a top corner who’s only 23 years old. Him, Eli Apple, and safeties Vonn Bell and Marcus Williams look to have a better year this year, and they should.

The Saints have an incredibly tough September, but they should be able to manage the rest of their schedule. Their first four games are against Houston, at L.A. Rams, at Seattle, and against Dallas. This is a veteran team that should be prepared to win immediately. Even if they have a slow start, I’d still expect a bounce back to relevance the rest of the year. The only teams the Saints play after September that made the playoffs last year are the Bears on October 20th, and the Colts December 16th. The Bears are still an NFC threat, but I think we’’ll see them regress a bit after their 12-4 season a year ago. With the recent retirement of Andrew Luck, I wouldn’t expect them to be contenders this year either. To summarize, if New Orleans does its job against their foes in September a playoff berth is a safe bet this year.


#2 Los Angeles Rams

The Rams came up short in the Super Bowl this February, but don’t expect them to slide because of this. Sean McVay and Wade Phillips head as good of a coaching staff as there is in the NFL. This was evidenced in the offseason’s head coaching signings: Matt LaFleur and Zac Taylor, two former assistants of the Rams, were hired as first time head coaches by the Packers and Bengals. They hope to replicate the Rams 2018 success. GM Les Snead has been active this offseason too. He brought in Clay Matthews to help the pass rush, and Eric Weddle to lead the back end of the secondary. Team stars Aaron Donald and Jared Goff were signed to long term contracts as well.

The offense has one of the deepest and most talented receiving corps in the league right now. Brandin Cooks is the deep threat, and has gone for over 1,000 yards every year since his rookie season. Robert Woods is another weapon who can do a bit of everything as a receiver, and will likely be the WR2; meanwhile, Cooper Kupp will eat up yards in the middle of the field as the slot receiver. They missed Kupp last year after an early injury- it will be interesting to watch how good the offense can be with him an entire season. Todd Gurley’s long term health has been a topic of interest ever since doctors found arthritis in one of his knees this summer. The team will likely lighten his workload, but he’ll still be one of the best running backs there is, and it should be exciting to see him healthy later in the season. A possible area of weakness is the Ram’s O-line this year. They lost starters John Sullivan and Rodger Saffold to free agency. Los Angeles still has three starters from last year, most notably left tackle Andrew Whitworth, but these positions should be watched while their replacements are introduced. If the OL holds, Jared Goff could be in a position to be an MVP candidate. He’s an accurate, smart quarterback, who should only get better with experience and the return of Kupp.

L.A.’s defense lost big names like Ndamukong Suh, Lamarcus Joyner, and Mark Barron in free agency, but it might be better this season. Aaron Donald is the best defensive linemen in football, and possibly the best player in the NFL. He and fellow defensive end Michael Brockers are matchup headaches for opposing offenses. If the other team gets behind early, the pass rush will be unleashed on them, and Clay Matthews, Dante Fowler, and Samson Ebukam will have fun destroying opposing quarterback’s comeback hopes. The secondary could be formidable as well, especially if Aqib Talib returns healthy after only playing eight games last year. Marcus Peters, Eric Weddle, and John Johnson are also talented starters in the back of the defense, and Taylor Rapp is a rookie who will fight to be on the field. This defense's weakness will be their middle linebackers. They are thin at the position, and don’t have an established star to start for them.

The Rams have two road tests in September against the Panthers and Browns, two teams that have a lot of hype entering the season, and playoff aspirations despite missing them last year. Week 2 they also play the Saints in Los Angeles. It’s a home game, but expect New Orleans to fight hard to avenge the NFC Championship, a game they thought they should have won. Shortly after an easy matchup against Tampa Bay, the Rams play a Thursday Night game in Seattle. This will be a difficult week for the team. Later, after a few other games and their bye week, the Rams have three games in a row against physical defenses: at Pittsburgh, and against Baltimore and Chicago. If the Rams prove they are worthy of this test, they will be in good shape heading into December. They start the month by playing Dallas and Seattle, but end it with weak division foes San Francisco and Arizona.


# 3 Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have all of the parts needed for another deep playoff run and division championship. The coaching staff remains one of the league’s best, headed by offensive minded Doug Peterson, and Howie Roseman orchestrated another great offseason, signing and drafting players that will help the team now and for years to come. Yes, the Eagles did lose talents like Michael Bennett, Jordan Hicks, and Philly hero Nick Foles, but the free agent signings they made should give fans of the team faith. A Super Bowl run is quite a possibility.

If Wentz can remain healthy (which is a big question mark right now) the team will run smoothly. The offensive line is both one of the NFL’s most talented and deepest. Jason Peters, Lane Johnson, Jason Kelce, and Brandon Brooks are all former Pro Bowlers who return up front. They also have notable backups Halapoulivaati Vaiti, who has played in the past filling in for Peters, and rookie tackle Andre Dillard out of Washington State, who was commonly referred to as the draft’s best pass blocker. Having Dillard and Vitai is a luxury many teams surely wish they had, and is all the more important given Peters’ old age and injury history. The Eagles drafted Penn State running back Miles Sanders in the second round, and as of this writing he has impressed the team in the offseason and is pushing for touches come week one. It is my belief that Sanders will be the full time starter come the end of the season, and he could be a three down workhorse if given the chance. Sanders may not have to play on third and longs, however. Darren Sproles is getting up there in years, but remains one of the better receiving backs there are. Speaking of receiving, throwing the ball should be fun this year for Carson Wentz. Besides Sproles, Wentz now has Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Desean Jackson, and more in a loaded receiving corps. JJ Arcega-Whiteside was drafted out of Stanford to be a red zone threat, and in rookie camp he shined. Nelson Agholor is on the final year of his contract, and while he hasn’t yet lived up to his first round draft price, he could shine in an effort to get a pay boost after his rookie contract expires.

Once again, the defensive line will be the strength of this defense. Dominant veterans Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham are back again at DT and DE, and Derek Barnett will look to take another step in his career as he gets more reps at the other defensive end spot. Malik Jackson and Vinny Curry are valuable free agent signings coming to the team, and Timmy Jernigan will give extra depth at defensive tackle. Nigel Bradham mans the middle linebacker spot and should lead the team in tackles again. The problem area on this defense is its secondary. This section -particularly the cornerback position- was hit hard by injuries last year, and opposing teams exposed their lack of depth. That being said, if injuries are not a factor the group should be fine. Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills are decent starters, and if Sidney Jones finally stays on the field a full sixteen games he could be a valuable slot corner.

Philadelphia’s opening five games are all against non-playoff teams of last year. A week one matchup against division rival Washington looks like an easy win at home. If the Eagles start strong in these five games they could carry some valuable momentum into a rough October and November. In October, the team travels to Minnesota, Dallas, and Buffalo three weeks in a row, and then has a home game against Chicago before their bye. These are all tough defensive teams that will challenge this team’s willpower. After this, the Eagles play New England and Seattle in Philly to finish November. If they make it through this gauntlet of teams with four or more wins I fully expect them to finish as a top three NFC team. This is because luckily for Eagle nation, December has four matchups that should be against teams that won’t even be in the wildcard hunt: Miami, Washington, and the Giants twice.


# 4 Detroit Lions

The NFC North is as wide open as it has been in a long time. The Packers haven’t been the consistent playoff team that they were earlier in Aaron Rodger’s career, and they moved on from Mike McCarthy last year, replacing him this offseason with first time head coach Matt LeFleur. The Bears were a 12-4 team last year, but struggles on special teams and losses in the coaching staff and depth chart are worrisome. The Viking’s lack of depth was exposed last year after a few key injuries hit them, and they made a lot of changes this offseason. This leaves the Detroit Lions. To put it nicely, the Lions have had a hard time putting together playoff worthy teams over the years, but after a string of productive offseasons, this roster looks like it’s ready to make the jump. Coach Matt Patricia and fellow ex-Patriot Bob Quinn have drafted and signed a blue collar team during their time with the franchise. This year, they’ll connect all the dots and make the playoffs.

This year, the offense will be headed by coach Derrell Bevell, who is known for his focus on the run game. This could be a good change for the Lions, who have too often over relied on Matthew Stafford in the past. The offensive line should be ready for the change. Tackles Taylor Decker and Rick Wagner are no slouches in the run or pass games. In the middle, Graham Glasgow is a solid guard, and Frank Ragnow is a second year player that performed well as a rookie, and Detroit is excited to see his continued development as he moves back to center, his position in college. T.J. Lang retired, which is a shame, but not too much of a surprise given his injury history. Kenny Wiggins filled in for him ten games last year, and should return as this year’s other starting guard. Being a run oriented team doesn’t mean Detroit will totally abandon the pass. The team has Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones once again, and signed Danny Amendola in free agency. At tight end, the Lions signed Pittsburgh’s Jesse James, and then drafted TJ Hockenson in the top ten of the draft. Both can block and be useful in the passing game, and the Lions are especially excited about Hockenson’s potential. Running backs Kerryon Johnson and CJ Anderson are capable of carrying their fair share of runs, and Matthew Stafford’s veteran savvy will help quicken the transition to a new playbook.

The offense is promising, but Matt Patricia undoubtedly hopes that the team will win through strong defensive play. Fortunately for him, this team has the players to become a top run defense, and is versatile enough to halt the pass as well. On the line, “Snacks” Harrison will be in the middle of the team’s run stopping as one of the NFL’s best nosetackles. At the other DT position, A’Shawn Robinson and Mike Daniels are capable players, and give good depth to the starting front seven. Trey Flowers is another talented player who signed in free agency, and his connection to coach Patricia from their days in New England should be useful. Romeo Okwara was last year’s team leader in sacks, and looks to improve on a good year. Jarrad Davis is the leader of the defense, and reports say he has been improving during the offseason. Christian Jones mans another LB spot. Devon Kennard had seven sacks last year during his first year with the Lions, and the Lions traded up in the second round to get Jahlani Tavai. Darius Slay is an underrated CB1, and will shadow the opponent’s best receiver all year. Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin were signed for CB depth, and Quandre Diggs is a hard hitting strong safety who will get even better with experience. The Lions were eleventh in the league in sacks last year without a household name, and now they have guys like Flowers and Daniels. If they can just improve on their interception totals (29th last year) their run-centered, ball control offense will suffocate opponents with what would be a more positive turnover margin.

The Lions start their season with what should be an easy win- the Arizona Cardinals. Their September won’t be a breeze though- they have games against the Chargers and Chiefs at home, and another matchup in Philadelphia. After their bye week, they head to Lambeau, but I think with two week’s preparation Detroit could come out with a win. Following that crucial game, Detroit plays Minnesota at home, and then they have two weeks in a row of should-wins: the Giants and Raiders. The rest of November has tests against Dallas and two games against the Bears, but December has four games that the Lions are capable of winning, especially if they’re coming off of a hot streak; after playing in Minnesota, Detroit plays Tampa Bay, travels to Denver, and finishes against Green Bay at home. It’s not an undemanding schedule, but if the Lions play strong against their division -as I believe they will- they will go into the playoffs as the number four seed.


# 5 (Wildcard) Dallas Cowboys

Jason Garrett has seemed incompetent at times as head coach of the Cowboys, but he led this Dallas team once again into a decent playoff run, and expectations are high for another season. A lot of credit should go to the Jones family, who has done an excellent job for several years running now building the team in the draft and free agency. Dallas has so much talent on its roster that it is in a financial bind this coming offseason. This roster is stacked with terrific players, and another playoff push should be in the future this year.

After a training camp holdout, Zeke should be fresh enough to get a lot of touches this year again. He is in great shape to start the season, but before they give him the ball thirty times a game a valuable lesson (that the Rams now wish they would have learned last year) should be talked about in the Dallas front office and staff room. Todd Gurley, was an outstanding force for the regular season last year, but struggled to get on the field Super Bowl Sunday. This was because of his heavy workload during the season. Tony Pollard is a rookie the team really likes, and could spell Zeke to make sure he stays healthy all year; Dallas should consider this approach to the backfield. In the meantime, Dallas’ offensive line is once again one of the league’s best, and some very important players are returning to bolster the line even more. Travis Frederick is expected to return this year after missing all of last year with an illness. His value to the line was seen with his absence, and now that he’s back he’ll be a leader up front. Zack Martin is an All-Pro, and Tyron Smith is a top left tackle. La’el Collins and Connor Williams struggled at times last year, but both were top prospects out of college, and still have a lot of room to grow. They are also backed by a deep group with men such as Joe Looney, who got to play center last year for Frederick. Jason Witten won’t be a super star in the passing game, but will be Dak’s safety blanket again now that Cole Beasley is in Buffalo, and he strengthens the Cowboy’s run offense in ways that Geoff Swaim and Blake Jarwin couldn’t last year. Dak is back as starter, and should have a good year. The offense should start out better this year than they did last year; Kellen Moore was promoted from QB coach to offensive coordinator, and should find ways to maximise Dak’s talents. The receiving corps has Amari Cooper, second year breakout candidate Michael Gallup, and slot threat Randall Cobb. All three should be effective.

The defense last year was the best to wear the star in a long time, and could improve even more this year. The D-line will miss David Irving’s talent, but won’t miss his suspensions and off field distractions. Demarcus Lawrence is a force to be reckoned with, and is on the franchise tag this year, so he will be highly motivated once again. Taco Charlton and Randy Gregory have potential, but have both disappointed for their own different reasons thus far, so the Boys brought in Robert Quinn to be another veteran example and show off a bit of what made him so special in his prime- his pass rush. Tyrone Crawford and Antwuan Woods will play the starting DT roles, but Maliek Collins and rookie Trysten Hill will rotate in to keep them fresh. The Cowboys have a star group of linebackers. Jaylon Smith makes it appear as if the Fiesta Bowl injury that let him slip to the second round never happened. Vander Esch was booed a bit on draft day last year, but proved his doubters wrong. Sean Lee is a great NFL vet, but will he ever stay on the field for an entire season again? It’s not likely, but if he’s healthy in December and January, watch out. The secondary looked much improved last year, but it tied for 26th in interceptions. If that number rises, the defense could go from good to dominant. Kris Richard, the Passing Game Coordinator and DBs coach was excellent at his previous job in Seattle, and is now in Dallas, developing Byron Jones and late round gems like Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown. He is seen by some as a head coach candidate this next offseason, and if the secondary does well, his stock should rise even more.

Since the Cowboys won their division last year, their schedule has them face many division winners of last year as well. Their tough schedule -especially at the end of the year- is the reason I project that they will be a wild card team, and lose the division to Philly. The first three games should be a cakewalk, but the difficulty begins to ramp up starting with a week four game in New Orleans. A mid season bye gives them time to prepare for the playoff team slugfest that they have to go through in November and December. There are some games that Dallas should win, but some really challenging tests as well. After playing in New England, Dallas plays four days later on Thanksgiving day against a physical Buffalo team. Following that, the Boys play at Chicago, against the Rams, and then at Philadelphia. This is one of the most difficult Decembers this season. If Dallas gets through that just barely in the hunt, week seventeen may be a challenge as well. They play the Redskins, a team that won’t be in the playoffs, but will be playing for their jobs; in the past, the Redskins have liked nothing more than knocking a division rival out of the playoff bracket. There will be losses in November and December. It’s how the Cowboys handle them that will determine whether they will be a contender or a pretender.


# 6 (Wild Card) Seattle Seahawks

Last year, before the season began there were many questions surrounding the Seahawks. Some major parts of the Legion of Boom were heading to new teams, and the dynasty seemed to be coming to an end. Then, Seattle rallied a young team together and made it to the playoffs. Pete Carroll has once again proven how well he can coach young players into excellence- even those who weren't talked about too much while coming into the league. John Schneider is also a mastermind at GM, who made some moves this year to keep the team in contention. There are still a lot of new faces on this roster, but they are ready to make a name for themselves this year.

Russell Wilson was given an enormous contract extension recently, and for good reason. He can make the case that he is the best quarterback in the league. The offense shifted to a run heavy playbook last year, so Wilson won't throw 50 touchdowns anytime soon, but he can sling it when needed. Relying on the run is part of what made this offense a lot better than what many thought they would be last year. Chris Carson proved he could be a workhorse back, and he could be even more involved in offensive plans this year. Tyler Lockett is an efficient deep threat, and is now Wilson's number one target after Doug Baldwin's retirement. D.K. Metcalf is another exciting player that was drafted this year by the Hawks; if he lives up to his huge NFL combine, Metcalf could be special. The offensive line is well suited for a lot of run blocking. Duane Brown and Germain Ifedi will be the tackles, Justin Britt returns at center, and D.J. Fluker and free agent signing Mike Iupati will play guard. Tight end depth is still very thin, and there aren't players at the position to be enthusiastic about- Will Dissly is the starter.

After trading Frank Clark for a first round pick and having Earl Thomas leave, the Seahawks looked pretty bare on defense. Then, in the draft they chose L.J. Collier in the first round with their Frank Clark pick, and got some other defensive depth players like Marquise Blair. It was after free agency and the draft that Schneider started making real improvements to the defense though. He signed Ziggy Ansah, who has had a lot of ups and downs in his career, but still shows potential. Then, late in the preseason, Schneider showed why he's a top GM- he acquired Jadeveon Clowney in exchange for Seattle's third round pick and some bench players. The front seven looks formidable again after the trade. Defensive tackles Poona Ford and Jarran Reed were showing some real promise as starters last year, and they are back. Bobby Wagner is the anchor of the defense, and is surrounded by a lot of good linebackers like Mychal Kendricks, K.J.Wright, and Shaquem Griffin. Griffin's brother Shaquill will be a starting corner with Tre Flowers on the other side. Bradley McDougald and Tedric Thompson are no Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas, but if they don't give up big plays the defense is solid enough to get the stops it needs.

Besides playing their own division, Seattle has the unenviable task of taking on the NFC South and AFC North this year. They start the year at home against the Bengals, but play in Pittsburgh and against New Orleans right afterwards. They get a relatively easier game with Arizona to end September, but play the Rams four days later on Thurday Night Football. The Seahawks' October is one of the most difficult October schedules this year. Besides the Rams on a Thursday, they play at Cleveland and Atlanta, and have a home game versus Baltimore. Fortunately, this is their toughest month. Tampa Bay and San Francisco begin November for Seattle, and following that they have a bye week. To end the year, the team has another four opponents in a row that will challenge them -Philadelphia, Minnesota, the Rams, and Carolina- but finish the year against division foes Arizona and San Francisco. The NFC is a deep conference right now, so getting to the playoffs won't be a walk in the park. However, with Carroll coaching and Wilson playing quarterback making the playoffs again is attainable.
     




DIVISIONAL STANDINGS



NFC North

1. Detroit Lions
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Chicago Bears
4. Minnesota Vikings


NFC South

1. Saints
2. Falcons
3. Panthers
4. Buccaneers


NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Washington Redskins
4. New York Giants


NFC West

1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals