Week 5 Fantasy Tips and Predictions

QB

Jacoby Brissett

For the Colts to be competitive in this game, they must keep up with the scoring of the Chiefs. They may start with a focus on the run, but the the Chiefs are weakest in the secondary. Indianapolis’ offensive line has the star power to slow the Chiefs awesome pass rush, and will give Brissett time to find his teammates. Jacoby was highly efficient in his first month of the season, and the trend should continue.




Kyler Murray

The Arizona versus Cincinnati game will likely be a back and forth offensive matchup, so Murray has a chance to make this a big fantasy game. Mason Rudolph dinked and dunked his way to a solid but not spectacular game against Cincy Monday night, and Arizona does a lot of short passes as well. Kyler can be a solid play this week.




RB

David Montgomery

This rookie running back hasn’t lived up to his draft position thus far, but with starting QB Mitchell Trubisky out with an injury, Montgomery may have a chance to shine. Chase Daniel is a decent backup, but he likely won’t have the offensive gameplan centered around him. This means the running game will be more of a focus this week against the Raiders. Also, Oakland linebacker Vontaze Burfict was suspended for the season after last week’s game, so the Raiders may be adjusting to his loss - he was a leader on the defense. Try Montgomery again this week, and expect his increase in touches to equate to fantasy relevance.




Austin Ekeler

The second best fantasy running back to this point, Ekeler is a talent that has been a must start. However, fellow Charger Melvin Gordon returns this week, giving some owners doubts. My advice is to hold onto him, and even start him this week. Head coach Anthony Lynn said Gordon may still be given limited snaps in his first week back. Ekeler is also a weapon in the passing game, which is really important considering Los Angeles has only one true threat at wide receiver right now, Keenan Allen. If Ekeler continues to be active in the passing game, which he should be, he remains a PPR value. The Denver Broncos are this week’s opponent, and they have been bad against running backs. Hold on to Ekeler, and play him this week.




Sony Michel

The Redskins don’t stand a chance this week. Starting QB Case Keenum was seen in a walking boot Wednesday, and head coach Jay Gruden was even quoted saying that they don’t have an offensive gameplan yet. The last quote is likely an exaggeration, but it goes without saying Washington will struggle. That means the Patriots will be in the lead most of the game, slowly grinding away the clock with their running game. Michel has been a disappointment, but I think he finds the endzone this week, and will get the yards needed to be a RB2 or Flex play.




WR

Deandre Hopkins

“Nuk” hasn’t caught a touchdown since week one, but owners can’t afford to panic. He remains one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL, and has an easier defense to face this week. The Falcons allowed Tennessee to throw three touchdowns to wideouts last week, and the Titans have one of the weakest receiving corps in the league. Falcon’s safety Keanu Neal also went down with an Achilles injury. Deandre will have a big week and remind everyone why he was a first round pick this year.




Adam Thielen

The Vikings looked absolutely terrible against the Bears. Their offensive line was shredded, and Cousins couldn’t throw downfield. After the game, Thielen called out his quarterback and criticized the passing game. This week, the coaches are going to look for ways to restore their offense’s confidence in the passing game, and they have the perfect opponent to accomplish the task. The Giants looked good against a rookie quarterback with no receiving weapons last week, but this week they will be tested. Thielen will likely be targeted a lot to make up for last week’s missteps, and will be a fantasy starter again. Don’t give Thielen away in a trade or bench him. Give Thielen a chance again this week, and see if he can bounce back.




Marquise Brown

After a hot start to the season, “Hollywood” has been less relevant as a fantasy receiver. This week, the Ravens face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who finally got their first win in week four. The Steeler’s usual struggles against the pass were masked last week behind the team’s eight sacks. With that many sacks, the opponent’s passing game is really weakened and predictable. The Ravens have a good offensive line, and are very unpredictable offensively. Brown is too speedy for any corner on the Steelers, and will get some big gains. Expect him to have another good game.




TE

Dawson Knox

This rookie has been used more in the passing game lately for the Bills, and may be worth a spot on your roster. This week, the Bills face the Titans, who have given up a lot of points to opposing tight ends. In deep leagues, or in an emergency, Knox could be worth a shot this week as your starting tight end.




Tyler Eifert

The Bengals are going up against the Cardinals this week, and that should be enough of an explanation for starting Eifert. The Cardinals still haven’t had a week where they’ve slowed the tight end position, and Eifert and QB Andy Dalton have showed that they can be a good duo in the past. Try Eifert this week if you don’t have a better option.




Will Dissly

According to ESPN’s fantasy app, Dissly is only being started in 50% of leagues. He’s been the sixth best PPR tight end thus far though, and has averaged 19 points over the last three games. Russell Wilson has shown he has faith in Dissly, so you should as well. Put him in your starting lineup this week.




D/ST

Buffalo Bills

The final score last week showed a Buffalo loss, but a closer look will reveal that this defense is legit. The Patriots had to have a blocked punt touchdown to pull away in this game. Brady threw his first interception of the year. The Bills haven’t allowed more than 20 points this year, and I wouldn’t expect the Titans to break that streak. The Bills defense is a good play this week.




Tennessee Titans

On the other side of the Bills-Titans game, Tennessee has a good matchup as well. Bills QB Josh Allen may or may not play because of a concussion. His backup Matt Barkley hasn’t been that productive since entering the league. The Titans can stop the run, which is the Bill’s usual offensive focus. When Tennessee stops the run, they’ll have opportunities to make big plays against the pass. Big plays equal big fantasy points, so give the Titans defense a start this week.




Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles defense hasn’t been good for fantasy, but they face a perfect matchup this week to make some noise. The Jet’s quarterback Sam Darnold may come back this week, but he likely won’t. That leaves backup Luke Falk, who is just as bad as the rest of the Jets offense. New York’s only good player on offense is running back Le’Veon Bell, but the Eagles are deep on their defensive line, and will shut him down. If you’re in a pinch at the D/ST, start the Eagles.




Fantasy Tip of the Week




Having a good receiving corps in fantasy can be difficult at times. With so many names to choose from, and so much week to week scoring variation, it’s hard to know who to go after in drafts and on the waiver wire. This week, I have some tips on how to find receivers in fantasy.



Target %: Certain receivers are given more opportunities than others, and more opportunities means more fantasy points. In PPR (points per reception) this is especially important because players with a lot of catches are just as valuable as the guy who catches a fifty yard bomb. Keep an eye on this stat though; throughout the season, injuries and roster moves will impact who gets opportunities.


Quarterback connection: This is very much related to target %, but it’s not the same. As you watch a game, watch which receivers the QB throws to in big moments. This was seen a lot in the duo of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. When Big Ben was throwing near the endzone, he looked to Brown, and threw him the ball even if it was a bad choice to do so. If you feel like a certain QB and WR have a connection, go after them. The receivers who have a good relationship with their QB will have more touchdowns.


Team pass %: This is pretty simple. Teams that pass more than others create more opportunities for WR fantasy points.


An increase in receptions several weeks in a row: This is a sign that the coaches and players have an increased faith in the player’s talent. This is something that should especially be considered when looking at rookies and young players who are still learning. If you find this trend, you may have a breakout player on your hands.

Drops and/or fumbles: If a player has been dropping the ball or fumbling a bit too much lately, you should stop before picking them up. Unless they are immensely talented, the coaches and players around them will have less faith in them, meaning less opportunities in the future.