Thursday, September 19, 2019
Week 3 Game Predictions
Titans vs Jaguars (TNF)
The Jaguars have a rookie QB, are dealing with injuries (CB AJ Bouye), and off the field issues (Jalen Ramsey has requested a trade). Tennessee narrowly lost to the Colts last week, and they know they need a win this week to truly contend in the AFC South. Jacksonville is at home, but I think they come up short in a defensive battle Thursday night. The Titans win.
Dolphins vs Cowboys
The Dolphins aren’t trying to win this year. The Cowboys are all in on a playoff run, and Dak Prescott has looked excellent with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore calling plays. The Cowboys win.
Bengals vs Bills
The Bengals have looked better than expected under Zac Taylor. However, they are terrible on defense and are already banged up on offense. The Bills are playing at home, have a good defense, and are on a hot streak (2-0). The Bills win.
Lions vs Eagles
The Eagles dealt with so many injuries Sunday night that they cancelled practice on Wednesday. Their secondary has had a hard time keeping up with opposing receivers, and their offense had a hard time moving the ball without wideouts Alshon Jeffery and Desean Jackson. The Lions have a sturdy defense already, and their passing game has enough weapons to expose the Eagles. The Lions win.
Jets vs Patriots
The Jets are down two quarterbacks already, and their defensive star, safety Jamal Adams, seems disgruntled by the team’s performance. The Patriots have looked outstanding on offense and defense. The Patriots win.
Falcons vs Colts
Jacoby Brissett has been decent as a starting QB for the Colts since the surprising Andrew Luck retirement. Their offensive line is also a strength. The Falcons won an important game against the Eagles, and should be confident right now. This will be a close game. I think the Colts escape with a narrow victory by exposing the Falcons’ weak offensive line.
Raiders vs Vikings
The Raiders’ hot start was quickly cooled by the Chiefs last week. Their defense misses safety Jonathan Abrams, and their offensive line gave up a lot of pressure. The Vikings still aren’t great, but they run the ball well and rush the passer, something the Raiders will have trouble stopping. The Vikings win.
Ravens vs Chiefs
This should be the best game of the week. Lamar Jackson is much improved as a passer, and the Ravens will keep the notoriously bad Chiefs defense on their heels. The Chiefs are moving the ball at will against any team they face, and the Ravens just gave rookie Kyler Murray 350 yards through the air. This will be a high scoring game, and the winner will be the team with the most takeaways. The Ravens win in a nailbiter.
Broncos vs Packers
The Packers are mediocre on offense, but their defense has stepped up in big moments to have them at 2-0. The Broncos defense hasn’t looked as good as they should be, and their offense isn’t better. The Packers defense will step it up at home and force some mistakes. The Packers win.
Panthers vs Cardinals
Cam Newton is out, leaving Kyle Allen to start at QB for the Panthers. Carolina’s offense will struggle against a surprisingly good Arizona run defense and pass rush. The Panther’s defense is sturdy, but Kyler Murray has done well against some good defenses already. The Cardinals win.
Giants vs Buccaneers
The Giants are giving rookie Daniel Jones his first start this week. Tampa Bay’s been good on defense through two weeks, and they are looking to extend that streak to three. Jameis Winston had a better week 2 than expected, and is trying to build some momentum as well. The Giants defense will be easy pickings. The Buccaneers win.
Saints vs Seahawks
The Saints lost the heart of the team, quarterback Drew Brees, to a thumb injury, and he won’t play this game. Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill will split snaps trying to replace him, but could struggle playing in Seattle if the 12th man is in full force. Russell Wilson is also a deep passing ace, and the Saints have given up some big plays to speed receivers. The Seahawks win.
Texans vs Chargers
Both of these teams have good rosters, but are 1-1 after starting the season with some close games. This will be a back and forth game that would be favorable for Los Angeles, but their home field advantage is hardly an advantage as they wait for their new stadium to be completed. After a back and forth game, the Texans take home a victory.
Steelers vs 49ers
Preseason expectations for these teams have both been flipped already. The Steelers lost star QB Ben Roethlisberger for the year last week, and replace him with young Mason Rudolph. Meanwhile, the 49ers have looked formidable on both sides of the ball. The 49ers win.
Rams vs Browns (SNF)
Los Angeles is a strong team once again, and they travel to Cleveland to play the Browns, who despite a week 2 win have looked shaky at times. The Browns haven’t played a team of this caliber yet, and the young team will have a hard time bouncing back after an early L.A. lead. The Rams win.
Bears vs Redskins (MNF)
On paper, the Bears should easily take this week 3 win, but their offense isn’t good enough to get a decisive victory yet. The Bears will play down to their competition in Washington, and the Redskins will take advantage. Redskins win.
Week 3 Starts and Fantasy Football Beginner Tip
Sometimes you can feel great about your fantasy team because you have a set of NFL players who are obvious starts each week. Other times, your fantasy team may be struggling, and you’re left with a tough decision on who to start. The following players are likely on your bench or on the waiver wire, but could lead you to a big win this week.
Quarterback (QB)
Kirk Cousins
Cousins has had a slow start to his fantasy season. Week 1 Kirk only needed to throw 10 times, and while he looked efficient, that’s not gonna do it in fantasy. A shaky week 2 in Lambeau may have some owners wary of playing him, but Oakland is too good of a matchup to not consider giving him a start. Jonathan Abrams is out with a shoulder injury for the Raiders, and their secondary just got shredded at home by the Chiefs. A bounce back week is coming for Cousins and the Vikings, so if you don’t have a clear starter at QB, give him a shot week 3.
Jimmy Garappolo
The Steelers have now had two games in a row where they’ve given up three touchdowns to their opposition’s passing game. The 49ers are 2-0, and Gararppolo has looked good his first two games. Free Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is on his way to the Steelers via trade, but he should have a minimal impact in his first game as he learns the Steelers’ playbook. Expect two or more touchdowns for Jimmy G when the Niners rely on their passing game in the red zone.
Philip Rivers
Houston has done well against the run, but their pass defense and pass rush have been subpar. This is a good recipe for 30 or more passing attempts by Rivers, who is a veteran quarterback. The Texans did well against Jacksonville’s predictable offense last week, but suffered against the Saints, who attacked the defenses in a variety of ways. The Chargers should be scoring a lot in a shootout this weekend, and Philip Rivers should be a starting fantasy quarterback.
Running Back (RB)
Devonta Freeman
Freeman has had a rough start to the season, but could turn it around week 3. There are still valid concerns here with Freeman, backup Ito Smith has been involved in the offense a little too much for comfort, and Freeman hasn’t shown up against tougher competition. However, the Falcons play the Colts this week, who have allowed several running back touchdowns this year already. I expect Freeman to find the end zone this week, and at least be a worthy Flex play.
Matt Breida
Breida hasn’t been the workhorse back in the Niners backfield, despite injuries to several RBs above him on the depth chart. Be that as it may, the Shanahan system is a great one for running back production, and Breida had 121 yards on the ground against the Bengals. This week, Breida plays the Steelers, who have a better front seven on defense than Cincy, but Breida could still find the end zone and make his owners happy. Start him this week.
Malcolm Brown
Brown is a risky play with Todd Gurley starting for the Rams at running back. However, Los Angeles faces off with the Cleveland Browns this week. The Browns beat the Jets handily last week, but even a terrible team like New York exposed Cleveland’s flaws. The Browns have a tough time stopping the run, and Baker Mayfield still seems prone to turning the ball over this year. If the Rams take an early lead, the game script of this matchup will be perfect for Brown, who could get more 4th quarter touches as the Rams look to preserve Todd Gurley. In deep leagues or on a fantasy team with a thin running back corps, I’d give Brown a chance.
Frank Gore
Three factors add up this week for a Gore fantasy feast. First, the Bills play the Bengals, who have looked terrible against the run. Second, the Bills love running the ball, and center their offense around it. Third, backup Devin Singletary (who has looked great thus far) pulled his hamstring last week, and his touches will go down as a result. Start Gore as a RB2 or flex, and watch him have his best week of this season.
Wide Receiver (WR)
Mike Evans
Evans has looked like the second fiddle to fellow receiver Chris Godwin the first two weeks of the season, but make no mistake- Mike is one of the best wideouts in the NFL. He’ll be highly motivated to show his skills in a battle with the Giants this week, whose secondary is awful. This is also an important week for Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston, so expect him to look for his favorite target on multiple occasions this Sunday. Mike Evans is still a must start.
DJ Moore
At first glance, Cam Newton’s injury looks to hurt the stellar production Moore has shown us up to this point. But, after the news that Cam will likely not play this week, I am actually encouraged to play D.J. this week. Playing with a healthy backup will be better than playing with an injured Cam. Newton looked terrible against the Bucs, but Moore still put up 9 receptions for 89 yards. If Kyle Allen is the starter this week, Moore has already played two games with him at QB. The greatest receivers will have good numbers regardless of quarterback, and Moore has a chance to prove he is elite. He’ll have a good week against Arizona.
Allen Robinson
Mitch Trubisky has not started the season off with a bang, but one theme has become apparent after the Bear’s rough start: Allen Robinson is Trubisky’s go to target. Robinson looked rusty at times last year, but it should be noted he was coming off an ACL tear, and was learning Nagy’s offensive playbook. Now, he is fully healthy and ready to have a great year. Against Washington, he should have his best game of the new season.
Marvin Jones
Jones owners are likely feeling anxious about his long term value this year, but they shouldn’t fret; Jones is still a talented receiver. Philadelphia has already allowed five wide receiver touchdowns this year, including two against a bad Washington Redskins team. Jones will find the endzone this weekend, and should be a solid flex play for fantasy teams.
Tight End (TE)
Jared Cook
Drew Brees’ injury hurts the Saints offense as a whole, but it might open up Jared Cook for more targets. Oftentimes, a quarterback without much experience will look to his tight end a lot, and Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill are both young QB replacements that will split time this week against Seattle. It should also be noted that the Seahawks just allowed a young backup QB, Mason Rudolph, to throw two touchdowns to his tight end last week. If you are thin at the tight end position and have a chance to play Cook, go ahead and do it this week.
Greg Olsen
The Panthers are in a very similar situation as the Saints. Cam Newton is out with a foot injury at the moment, which means they’ll start backup Kyle Allen. Olsen looked sharp against the Buccaneers last week, and should get a lot of targets again. Carolina plays the Cardinals this week, who have been abysmal against the pass, especially against opposing tight ends. Arizona has allowed three tight end touchdowns in two weeks. Olsen is a must start this week on fantasy teams without an established star at tight end.
Defense/ Special Teams (D/ST)
Jaguars Defense/ Titans Defense
I place both of these teams together on the list because they’re in similar situations. They both play teams that have average or below average quarterbacks. They both have solid run defenders that should shut out the other team’s run heavy offense. Lastly, the game is on Thursday night, meaning both team’s offensive coordinators have had little time to prepare any schemes that would take advantage of a defensive weakness. If you have one of these defenses start them and expect a positive contribution to your fantasy team’s points.
Cowboys Defense
I’m going to make this one brief. The Cowboys defense is good. The Miami Dolphins look like they could lose to a college team this year. If there is ever a chance to play a defense against this year’s Dolphins, take it. You’ll be happy you did.
Tampa Bay Defense
It’s a small sample size, but the Buccaneers has been surprisingly good on defense this year. This week they play the Giants, an already awful team that is starting it’s rookie quarterback (Daniel Jones) for the first time. Take a chance on Tampa, and reap the benefits.
Fantasy Football Beginner Tip of the Week
(Sometimes it’s hard being a beginner in Fantasy Football. Each week I’ll try to leave a helpful tip that could help you during your fantasy season.)
The Defense/ Special Teams (D/ST) slot will not usually give your team the most points on your roster, but sometimes it can be the difference between winning and losing a game. Even the best defenses have bad games, so it is imperative to look at the defense’s opposing team each week. Here are some things to look for on the opposing team that can lead to a good week by your D/ST:
-Do they have a star player that is out with an injury? Is their backup good?
-They are starting a rookie at QB
-They have a bad offensive line, or a lot of recent injuries to their starting offensive lineman.
-Injuries or any other factor that make one position group very weak (WR, TE, RB, etc.)
-The team has had several big losses in a row
-The team has a QB who turns the ball over a lot (interceptions or fumbles)
Here are some things to look for on the opposing team that may lead to a tougher matchup than what you thought:
-An offense that scores a lot of points
-The team has won several games in a row
-The team is known for consistently beating your D/ST team
-A star player is returning from injury or another factor that kept them out for a while
-Your D/ST struggles at run defense, and the opponent is good at running the ball
-Your D/St struggles at pass defense, and the opponent is good at passing the ball
Kirk Cousins
Cousins has had a slow start to his fantasy season. Week 1 Kirk only needed to throw 10 times, and while he looked efficient, that’s not gonna do it in fantasy. A shaky week 2 in Lambeau may have some owners wary of playing him, but Oakland is too good of a matchup to not consider giving him a start. Jonathan Abrams is out with a shoulder injury for the Raiders, and their secondary just got shredded at home by the Chiefs. A bounce back week is coming for Cousins and the Vikings, so if you don’t have a clear starter at QB, give him a shot week 3.
Jimmy Garappolo
The Steelers have now had two games in a row where they’ve given up three touchdowns to their opposition’s passing game. The 49ers are 2-0, and Gararppolo has looked good his first two games. Free Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is on his way to the Steelers via trade, but he should have a minimal impact in his first game as he learns the Steelers’ playbook. Expect two or more touchdowns for Jimmy G when the Niners rely on their passing game in the red zone.
Philip Rivers
Houston has done well against the run, but their pass defense and pass rush have been subpar. This is a good recipe for 30 or more passing attempts by Rivers, who is a veteran quarterback. The Texans did well against Jacksonville’s predictable offense last week, but suffered against the Saints, who attacked the defenses in a variety of ways. The Chargers should be scoring a lot in a shootout this weekend, and Philip Rivers should be a starting fantasy quarterback.
Running Back (RB)
Devonta Freeman
Freeman has had a rough start to the season, but could turn it around week 3. There are still valid concerns here with Freeman, backup Ito Smith has been involved in the offense a little too much for comfort, and Freeman hasn’t shown up against tougher competition. However, the Falcons play the Colts this week, who have allowed several running back touchdowns this year already. I expect Freeman to find the end zone this week, and at least be a worthy Flex play.
Matt Breida
Breida hasn’t been the workhorse back in the Niners backfield, despite injuries to several RBs above him on the depth chart. Be that as it may, the Shanahan system is a great one for running back production, and Breida had 121 yards on the ground against the Bengals. This week, Breida plays the Steelers, who have a better front seven on defense than Cincy, but Breida could still find the end zone and make his owners happy. Start him this week.
Malcolm Brown
Brown is a risky play with Todd Gurley starting for the Rams at running back. However, Los Angeles faces off with the Cleveland Browns this week. The Browns beat the Jets handily last week, but even a terrible team like New York exposed Cleveland’s flaws. The Browns have a tough time stopping the run, and Baker Mayfield still seems prone to turning the ball over this year. If the Rams take an early lead, the game script of this matchup will be perfect for Brown, who could get more 4th quarter touches as the Rams look to preserve Todd Gurley. In deep leagues or on a fantasy team with a thin running back corps, I’d give Brown a chance.
Frank Gore
Three factors add up this week for a Gore fantasy feast. First, the Bills play the Bengals, who have looked terrible against the run. Second, the Bills love running the ball, and center their offense around it. Third, backup Devin Singletary (who has looked great thus far) pulled his hamstring last week, and his touches will go down as a result. Start Gore as a RB2 or flex, and watch him have his best week of this season.
Wide Receiver (WR)
Mike Evans
Evans has looked like the second fiddle to fellow receiver Chris Godwin the first two weeks of the season, but make no mistake- Mike is one of the best wideouts in the NFL. He’ll be highly motivated to show his skills in a battle with the Giants this week, whose secondary is awful. This is also an important week for Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston, so expect him to look for his favorite target on multiple occasions this Sunday. Mike Evans is still a must start.
DJ Moore
At first glance, Cam Newton’s injury looks to hurt the stellar production Moore has shown us up to this point. But, after the news that Cam will likely not play this week, I am actually encouraged to play D.J. this week. Playing with a healthy backup will be better than playing with an injured Cam. Newton looked terrible against the Bucs, but Moore still put up 9 receptions for 89 yards. If Kyle Allen is the starter this week, Moore has already played two games with him at QB. The greatest receivers will have good numbers regardless of quarterback, and Moore has a chance to prove he is elite. He’ll have a good week against Arizona.
Allen Robinson
Mitch Trubisky has not started the season off with a bang, but one theme has become apparent after the Bear’s rough start: Allen Robinson is Trubisky’s go to target. Robinson looked rusty at times last year, but it should be noted he was coming off an ACL tear, and was learning Nagy’s offensive playbook. Now, he is fully healthy and ready to have a great year. Against Washington, he should have his best game of the new season.
Marvin Jones
Jones owners are likely feeling anxious about his long term value this year, but they shouldn’t fret; Jones is still a talented receiver. Philadelphia has already allowed five wide receiver touchdowns this year, including two against a bad Washington Redskins team. Jones will find the endzone this weekend, and should be a solid flex play for fantasy teams.
Tight End (TE)
Jared Cook
Drew Brees’ injury hurts the Saints offense as a whole, but it might open up Jared Cook for more targets. Oftentimes, a quarterback without much experience will look to his tight end a lot, and Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill are both young QB replacements that will split time this week against Seattle. It should also be noted that the Seahawks just allowed a young backup QB, Mason Rudolph, to throw two touchdowns to his tight end last week. If you are thin at the tight end position and have a chance to play Cook, go ahead and do it this week.
Greg Olsen
The Panthers are in a very similar situation as the Saints. Cam Newton is out with a foot injury at the moment, which means they’ll start backup Kyle Allen. Olsen looked sharp against the Buccaneers last week, and should get a lot of targets again. Carolina plays the Cardinals this week, who have been abysmal against the pass, especially against opposing tight ends. Arizona has allowed three tight end touchdowns in two weeks. Olsen is a must start this week on fantasy teams without an established star at tight end.
Defense/ Special Teams (D/ST)
Jaguars Defense/ Titans Defense
I place both of these teams together on the list because they’re in similar situations. They both play teams that have average or below average quarterbacks. They both have solid run defenders that should shut out the other team’s run heavy offense. Lastly, the game is on Thursday night, meaning both team’s offensive coordinators have had little time to prepare any schemes that would take advantage of a defensive weakness. If you have one of these defenses start them and expect a positive contribution to your fantasy team’s points.
Cowboys Defense
I’m going to make this one brief. The Cowboys defense is good. The Miami Dolphins look like they could lose to a college team this year. If there is ever a chance to play a defense against this year’s Dolphins, take it. You’ll be happy you did.
Tampa Bay Defense
It’s a small sample size, but the Buccaneers has been surprisingly good on defense this year. This week they play the Giants, an already awful team that is starting it’s rookie quarterback (Daniel Jones) for the first time. Take a chance on Tampa, and reap the benefits.
Fantasy Football Beginner Tip of the Week
(Sometimes it’s hard being a beginner in Fantasy Football. Each week I’ll try to leave a helpful tip that could help you during your fantasy season.)
The Defense/ Special Teams (D/ST) slot will not usually give your team the most points on your roster, but sometimes it can be the difference between winning and losing a game. Even the best defenses have bad games, so it is imperative to look at the defense’s opposing team each week. Here are some things to look for on the opposing team that can lead to a good week by your D/ST:
-Do they have a star player that is out with an injury? Is their backup good?
-They are starting a rookie at QB
-They have a bad offensive line, or a lot of recent injuries to their starting offensive lineman.
-Injuries or any other factor that make one position group very weak (WR, TE, RB, etc.)
-The team has had several big losses in a row
-The team has a QB who turns the ball over a lot (interceptions or fumbles)
Here are some things to look for on the opposing team that may lead to a tougher matchup than what you thought:
-An offense that scores a lot of points
-The team has won several games in a row
-The team is known for consistently beating your D/ST team
-A star player is returning from injury or another factor that kept them out for a while
-Your D/ST struggles at run defense, and the opponent is good at running the ball
-Your D/St struggles at pass defense, and the opponent is good at passing the ball
And Finally, scout your own D/ST:
Good Signs (Bad Signs would be the opposite of these points)
-The defense is healthy
-A star is returning after time away
-A star has been signed to the team
-The D/ST has done well for several weeks in a row
-After some time struggling, the team has made a change at defensive coordinator (coach in charge of the defense)
It’s possible that there are other factors I left out that you may discover for yourself! If you have the time, check NFL news from time to time, and you’ll get better at making fantasy decisions. Try it out this week, and see how you do! And remember, if you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me or leave a comment!
Good Signs (Bad Signs would be the opposite of these points)
-The defense is healthy
-A star is returning after time away
-A star has been signed to the team
-The D/ST has done well for several weeks in a row
-After some time struggling, the team has made a change at defensive coordinator (coach in charge of the defense)
It’s possible that there are other factors I left out that you may discover for yourself! If you have the time, check NFL news from time to time, and you’ll get better at making fantasy decisions. Try it out this week, and see how you do! And remember, if you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me or leave a comment!
Friday, September 13, 2019
2019 Preseason Playoff Projections & Standings (NFC)
#1 New Orleans Saints
It’s been two heartbreaking playoff losses in a row now for the Saints, but they return many of the players who have gotten them so close to the big game. Sean Payton is one of the best offensive minds in coaching, and Dennis Allen has done good work as their DC the past few years. GM Mickey Loomis doesn’t get the credit he deserves very often; he has consistently built this roster to be a contender, and should be recognized for some very strong draft classes in recent years. The Saints Revenge Tour: Season 2 begins September 9th, on Monday Night Football.
Drew Brees is what makes this offense run so effectively, and while he does look a bit older at times, you have to think they have a shot at winning it all with him under center. Sadly, Brees’ veteran center Max Unger retired during the offseason. It looks as if this position will be filled by second round rookie Erik McCoy, a powerful run blocker. The rest of the line returns the same as it was last year, and it’s one of the NFL’s best. Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk are one of the best tackle duos in the game, and guards Andrus Peat and Larry Warford have been successful as well. Mark Ingram left in free agency to join the Ravens, but the running back corps could be the best this year. Latavious Murray signed from the Vikings, and Alvin Kamara is a superstar, on the ground and through the air. Taysom Hill is another threat in the running game- Payton loves designing plays for him, and giving opposing teams problems. In the passing game, Michael Thomas earned a big paycheck with his reliable hands. Thomas is young, but looks like an established vet, giving consistent performances every week. Ted Ginn will be the team’s deep threat, and Jared Cook came from Oakland to be New Orlean’s best receiving tight end since Jimmy Graham. He will help move the chains, and could be a red zone threat.
The Saint’s defense was close to the top in run defense last year (2nd in yards allowed/game) and did not lose any key players in the front seven. Their best defender arguably is Cameron Jordan, a sack monster. He should be a great mentor to young Marcus Davenport, who looked great when healthy last year as a rookie. In the middle, the Saints signed run stuffers Mario Edwards Jr. and Malcolm Brown in free agency for depth. Sheldon Rankins tore his ACL in the postseason, but could be back within the first six weeks to reclaim his starting defensive tackle spot. At linebacker, New Orleans still has solid player like Demario Davis who will rack up a lot of tackles, but they are not as strong against the passing game. The Saints were ranked 29th in the league last year in passing yards allowed, a surprising stat given that they have gifted players like corner Marshon Lattimore, a top corner who’s only 23 years old. Him, Eli Apple, and safeties Vonn Bell and Marcus Williams look to have a better year this year, and they should.
The Saints have an incredibly tough September, but they should be able to manage the rest of their schedule. Their first four games are against Houston, at L.A. Rams, at Seattle, and against Dallas. This is a veteran team that should be prepared to win immediately. Even if they have a slow start, I’d still expect a bounce back to relevance the rest of the year. The only teams the Saints play after September that made the playoffs last year are the Bears on October 20th, and the Colts December 16th. The Bears are still an NFC threat, but I think we’’ll see them regress a bit after their 12-4 season a year ago. With the recent retirement of Andrew Luck, I wouldn’t expect them to be contenders this year either. To summarize, if New Orleans does its job against their foes in September a playoff berth is a safe bet this year.
#2 Los Angeles Rams
The Rams came up short in the Super Bowl this February, but don’t expect them to slide because of this. Sean McVay and Wade Phillips head as good of a coaching staff as there is in the NFL. This was evidenced in the offseason’s head coaching signings: Matt LaFleur and Zac Taylor, two former assistants of the Rams, were hired as first time head coaches by the Packers and Bengals. They hope to replicate the Rams 2018 success. GM Les Snead has been active this offseason too. He brought in Clay Matthews to help the pass rush, and Eric Weddle to lead the back end of the secondary. Team stars Aaron Donald and Jared Goff were signed to long term contracts as well.
The offense has one of the deepest and most talented receiving corps in the league right now. Brandin Cooks is the deep threat, and has gone for over 1,000 yards every year since his rookie season. Robert Woods is another weapon who can do a bit of everything as a receiver, and will likely be the WR2; meanwhile, Cooper Kupp will eat up yards in the middle of the field as the slot receiver. They missed Kupp last year after an early injury- it will be interesting to watch how good the offense can be with him an entire season. Todd Gurley’s long term health has been a topic of interest ever since doctors found arthritis in one of his knees this summer. The team will likely lighten his workload, but he’ll still be one of the best running backs there is, and it should be exciting to see him healthy later in the season. A possible area of weakness is the Ram’s O-line this year. They lost starters John Sullivan and Rodger Saffold to free agency. Los Angeles still has three starters from last year, most notably left tackle Andrew Whitworth, but these positions should be watched while their replacements are introduced. If the OL holds, Jared Goff could be in a position to be an MVP candidate. He’s an accurate, smart quarterback, who should only get better with experience and the return of Kupp.
L.A.’s defense lost big names like Ndamukong Suh, Lamarcus Joyner, and Mark Barron in free agency, but it might be better this season. Aaron Donald is the best defensive linemen in football, and possibly the best player in the NFL. He and fellow defensive end Michael Brockers are matchup headaches for opposing offenses. If the other team gets behind early, the pass rush will be unleashed on them, and Clay Matthews, Dante Fowler, and Samson Ebukam will have fun destroying opposing quarterback’s comeback hopes. The secondary could be formidable as well, especially if Aqib Talib returns healthy after only playing eight games last year. Marcus Peters, Eric Weddle, and John Johnson are also talented starters in the back of the defense, and Taylor Rapp is a rookie who will fight to be on the field. This defense's weakness will be their middle linebackers. They are thin at the position, and don’t have an established star to start for them.
The Rams have two road tests in September against the Panthers and Browns, two teams that have a lot of hype entering the season, and playoff aspirations despite missing them last year. Week 2 they also play the Saints in Los Angeles. It’s a home game, but expect New Orleans to fight hard to avenge the NFC Championship, a game they thought they should have won. Shortly after an easy matchup against Tampa Bay, the Rams play a Thursday Night game in Seattle. This will be a difficult week for the team. Later, after a few other games and their bye week, the Rams have three games in a row against physical defenses: at Pittsburgh, and against Baltimore and Chicago. If the Rams prove they are worthy of this test, they will be in good shape heading into December. They start the month by playing Dallas and Seattle, but end it with weak division foes San Francisco and Arizona.
# 3 Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have all of the parts needed for another deep playoff run and division championship. The coaching staff remains one of the league’s best, headed by offensive minded Doug Peterson, and Howie Roseman orchestrated another great offseason, signing and drafting players that will help the team now and for years to come. Yes, the Eagles did lose talents like Michael Bennett, Jordan Hicks, and Philly hero Nick Foles, but the free agent signings they made should give fans of the team faith. A Super Bowl run is quite a possibility.
If Wentz can remain healthy (which is a big question mark right now) the team will run smoothly. The offensive line is both one of the NFL’s most talented and deepest. Jason Peters, Lane Johnson, Jason Kelce, and Brandon Brooks are all former Pro Bowlers who return up front. They also have notable backups Halapoulivaati Vaiti, who has played in the past filling in for Peters, and rookie tackle Andre Dillard out of Washington State, who was commonly referred to as the draft’s best pass blocker. Having Dillard and Vitai is a luxury many teams surely wish they had, and is all the more important given Peters’ old age and injury history. The Eagles drafted Penn State running back Miles Sanders in the second round, and as of this writing he has impressed the team in the offseason and is pushing for touches come week one. It is my belief that Sanders will be the full time starter come the end of the season, and he could be a three down workhorse if given the chance. Sanders may not have to play on third and longs, however. Darren Sproles is getting up there in years, but remains one of the better receiving backs there are. Speaking of receiving, throwing the ball should be fun this year for Carson Wentz. Besides Sproles, Wentz now has Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Desean Jackson, and more in a loaded receiving corps. JJ Arcega-Whiteside was drafted out of Stanford to be a red zone threat, and in rookie camp he shined. Nelson Agholor is on the final year of his contract, and while he hasn’t yet lived up to his first round draft price, he could shine in an effort to get a pay boost after his rookie contract expires.
Once again, the defensive line will be the strength of this defense. Dominant veterans Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham are back again at DT and DE, and Derek Barnett will look to take another step in his career as he gets more reps at the other defensive end spot. Malik Jackson and Vinny Curry are valuable free agent signings coming to the team, and Timmy Jernigan will give extra depth at defensive tackle. Nigel Bradham mans the middle linebacker spot and should lead the team in tackles again. The problem area on this defense is its secondary. This section -particularly the cornerback position- was hit hard by injuries last year, and opposing teams exposed their lack of depth. That being said, if injuries are not a factor the group should be fine. Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills are decent starters, and if Sidney Jones finally stays on the field a full sixteen games he could be a valuable slot corner.
Philadelphia’s opening five games are all against non-playoff teams of last year. A week one matchup against division rival Washington looks like an easy win at home. If the Eagles start strong in these five games they could carry some valuable momentum into a rough October and November. In October, the team travels to Minnesota, Dallas, and Buffalo three weeks in a row, and then has a home game against Chicago before their bye. These are all tough defensive teams that will challenge this team’s willpower. After this, the Eagles play New England and Seattle in Philly to finish November. If they make it through this gauntlet of teams with four or more wins I fully expect them to finish as a top three NFC team. This is because luckily for Eagle nation, December has four matchups that should be against teams that won’t even be in the wildcard hunt: Miami, Washington, and the Giants twice.
# 4 Detroit Lions
The NFC North is as wide open as it has been in a long time. The Packers haven’t been the consistent playoff team that they were earlier in Aaron Rodger’s career, and they moved on from Mike McCarthy last year, replacing him this offseason with first time head coach Matt LeFleur. The Bears were a 12-4 team last year, but struggles on special teams and losses in the coaching staff and depth chart are worrisome. The Viking’s lack of depth was exposed last year after a few key injuries hit them, and they made a lot of changes this offseason. This leaves the Detroit Lions. To put it nicely, the Lions have had a hard time putting together playoff worthy teams over the years, but after a string of productive offseasons, this roster looks like it’s ready to make the jump. Coach Matt Patricia and fellow ex-Patriot Bob Quinn have drafted and signed a blue collar team during their time with the franchise. This year, they’ll connect all the dots and make the playoffs.
This year, the offense will be headed by coach Derrell Bevell, who is known for his focus on the run game. This could be a good change for the Lions, who have too often over relied on Matthew Stafford in the past. The offensive line should be ready for the change. Tackles Taylor Decker and Rick Wagner are no slouches in the run or pass games. In the middle, Graham Glasgow is a solid guard, and Frank Ragnow is a second year player that performed well as a rookie, and Detroit is excited to see his continued development as he moves back to center, his position in college. T.J. Lang retired, which is a shame, but not too much of a surprise given his injury history. Kenny Wiggins filled in for him ten games last year, and should return as this year’s other starting guard. Being a run oriented team doesn’t mean Detroit will totally abandon the pass. The team has Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones once again, and signed Danny Amendola in free agency. At tight end, the Lions signed Pittsburgh’s Jesse James, and then drafted TJ Hockenson in the top ten of the draft. Both can block and be useful in the passing game, and the Lions are especially excited about Hockenson’s potential. Running backs Kerryon Johnson and CJ Anderson are capable of carrying their fair share of runs, and Matthew Stafford’s veteran savvy will help quicken the transition to a new playbook.
The offense is promising, but Matt Patricia undoubtedly hopes that the team will win through strong defensive play. Fortunately for him, this team has the players to become a top run defense, and is versatile enough to halt the pass as well. On the line, “Snacks” Harrison will be in the middle of the team’s run stopping as one of the NFL’s best nosetackles. At the other DT position, A’Shawn Robinson and Mike Daniels are capable players, and give good depth to the starting front seven. Trey Flowers is another talented player who signed in free agency, and his connection to coach Patricia from their days in New England should be useful. Romeo Okwara was last year’s team leader in sacks, and looks to improve on a good year. Jarrad Davis is the leader of the defense, and reports say he has been improving during the offseason. Christian Jones mans another LB spot. Devon Kennard had seven sacks last year during his first year with the Lions, and the Lions traded up in the second round to get Jahlani Tavai. Darius Slay is an underrated CB1, and will shadow the opponent’s best receiver all year. Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin were signed for CB depth, and Quandre Diggs is a hard hitting strong safety who will get even better with experience. The Lions were eleventh in the league in sacks last year without a household name, and now they have guys like Flowers and Daniels. If they can just improve on their interception totals (29th last year) their run-centered, ball control offense will suffocate opponents with what would be a more positive turnover margin.
The Lions start their season with what should be an easy win- the Arizona Cardinals. Their September won’t be a breeze though- they have games against the Chargers and Chiefs at home, and another matchup in Philadelphia. After their bye week, they head to Lambeau, but I think with two week’s preparation Detroit could come out with a win. Following that crucial game, Detroit plays Minnesota at home, and then they have two weeks in a row of should-wins: the Giants and Raiders. The rest of November has tests against Dallas and two games against the Bears, but December has four games that the Lions are capable of winning, especially if they’re coming off of a hot streak; after playing in Minnesota, Detroit plays Tampa Bay, travels to Denver, and finishes against Green Bay at home. It’s not an undemanding schedule, but if the Lions play strong against their division -as I believe they will- they will go into the playoffs as the number four seed.
# 5 (Wildcard) Dallas Cowboys
Jason Garrett has seemed incompetent at times as head coach of the Cowboys, but he led this Dallas team once again into a decent playoff run, and expectations are high for another season. A lot of credit should go to the Jones family, who has done an excellent job for several years running now building the team in the draft and free agency. Dallas has so much talent on its roster that it is in a financial bind this coming offseason. This roster is stacked with terrific players, and another playoff push should be in the future this year.
After a training camp holdout, Zeke should be fresh enough to get a lot of touches this year again. He is in great shape to start the season, but before they give him the ball thirty times a game a valuable lesson (that the Rams now wish they would have learned last year) should be talked about in the Dallas front office and staff room. Todd Gurley, was an outstanding force for the regular season last year, but struggled to get on the field Super Bowl Sunday. This was because of his heavy workload during the season. Tony Pollard is a rookie the team really likes, and could spell Zeke to make sure he stays healthy all year; Dallas should consider this approach to the backfield. In the meantime, Dallas’ offensive line is once again one of the league’s best, and some very important players are returning to bolster the line even more. Travis Frederick is expected to return this year after missing all of last year with an illness. His value to the line was seen with his absence, and now that he’s back he’ll be a leader up front. Zack Martin is an All-Pro, and Tyron Smith is a top left tackle. La’el Collins and Connor Williams struggled at times last year, but both were top prospects out of college, and still have a lot of room to grow. They are also backed by a deep group with men such as Joe Looney, who got to play center last year for Frederick. Jason Witten won’t be a super star in the passing game, but will be Dak’s safety blanket again now that Cole Beasley is in Buffalo, and he strengthens the Cowboy’s run offense in ways that Geoff Swaim and Blake Jarwin couldn’t last year. Dak is back as starter, and should have a good year. The offense should start out better this year than they did last year; Kellen Moore was promoted from QB coach to offensive coordinator, and should find ways to maximise Dak’s talents. The receiving corps has Amari Cooper, second year breakout candidate Michael Gallup, and slot threat Randall Cobb. All three should be effective.
The defense last year was the best to wear the star in a long time, and could improve even more this year. The D-line will miss David Irving’s talent, but won’t miss his suspensions and off field distractions. Demarcus Lawrence is a force to be reckoned with, and is on the franchise tag this year, so he will be highly motivated once again. Taco Charlton and Randy Gregory have potential, but have both disappointed for their own different reasons thus far, so the Boys brought in Robert Quinn to be another veteran example and show off a bit of what made him so special in his prime- his pass rush. Tyrone Crawford and Antwuan Woods will play the starting DT roles, but Maliek Collins and rookie Trysten Hill will rotate in to keep them fresh. The Cowboys have a star group of linebackers. Jaylon Smith makes it appear as if the Fiesta Bowl injury that let him slip to the second round never happened. Vander Esch was booed a bit on draft day last year, but proved his doubters wrong. Sean Lee is a great NFL vet, but will he ever stay on the field for an entire season again? It’s not likely, but if he’s healthy in December and January, watch out. The secondary looked much improved last year, but it tied for 26th in interceptions. If that number rises, the defense could go from good to dominant. Kris Richard, the Passing Game Coordinator and DBs coach was excellent at his previous job in Seattle, and is now in Dallas, developing Byron Jones and late round gems like Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown. He is seen by some as a head coach candidate this next offseason, and if the secondary does well, his stock should rise even more.
Since the Cowboys won their division last year, their schedule has them face many division winners of last year as well. Their tough schedule -especially at the end of the year- is the reason I project that they will be a wild card team, and lose the division to Philly. The first three games should be a cakewalk, but the difficulty begins to ramp up starting with a week four game in New Orleans. A mid season bye gives them time to prepare for the playoff team slugfest that they have to go through in November and December. There are some games that Dallas should win, but some really challenging tests as well. After playing in New England, Dallas plays four days later on Thanksgiving day against a physical Buffalo team. Following that, the Boys play at Chicago, against the Rams, and then at Philadelphia. This is one of the most difficult Decembers this season. If Dallas gets through that just barely in the hunt, week seventeen may be a challenge as well. They play the Redskins, a team that won’t be in the playoffs, but will be playing for their jobs; in the past, the Redskins have liked nothing more than knocking a division rival out of the playoff bracket. There will be losses in November and December. It’s how the Cowboys handle them that will determine whether they will be a contender or a pretender.
# 6 (Wild Card) Seattle Seahawks
Last year, before the season began there were many questions surrounding the Seahawks. Some major parts of the Legion of Boom were heading to new teams, and the dynasty seemed to be coming to an end. Then, Seattle rallied a young team together and made it to the playoffs. Pete Carroll has once again proven how well he can coach young players into excellence- even those who weren't talked about too much while coming into the league. John Schneider is also a mastermind at GM, who made some moves this year to keep the team in contention. There are still a lot of new faces on this roster, but they are ready to make a name for themselves this year.
Russell Wilson was given an enormous contract extension recently, and for good reason. He can make the case that he is the best quarterback in the league. The offense shifted to a run heavy playbook last year, so Wilson won't throw 50 touchdowns anytime soon, but he can sling it when needed. Relying on the run is part of what made this offense a lot better than what many thought they would be last year. Chris Carson proved he could be a workhorse back, and he could be even more involved in offensive plans this year. Tyler Lockett is an efficient deep threat, and is now Wilson's number one target after Doug Baldwin's retirement. D.K. Metcalf is another exciting player that was drafted this year by the Hawks; if he lives up to his huge NFL combine, Metcalf could be special. The offensive line is well suited for a lot of run blocking. Duane Brown and Germain Ifedi will be the tackles, Justin Britt returns at center, and D.J. Fluker and free agent signing Mike Iupati will play guard. Tight end depth is still very thin, and there aren't players at the position to be enthusiastic about- Will Dissly is the starter.
After trading Frank Clark for a first round pick and having Earl Thomas leave, the Seahawks looked pretty bare on defense. Then, in the draft they chose L.J. Collier in the first round with their Frank Clark pick, and got some other defensive depth players like Marquise Blair. It was after free agency and the draft that Schneider started making real improvements to the defense though. He signed Ziggy Ansah, who has had a lot of ups and downs in his career, but still shows potential. Then, late in the preseason, Schneider showed why he's a top GM- he acquired Jadeveon Clowney in exchange for Seattle's third round pick and some bench players. The front seven looks formidable again after the trade. Defensive tackles Poona Ford and Jarran Reed were showing some real promise as starters last year, and they are back. Bobby Wagner is the anchor of the defense, and is surrounded by a lot of good linebackers like Mychal Kendricks, K.J.Wright, and Shaquem Griffin. Griffin's brother Shaquill will be a starting corner with Tre Flowers on the other side. Bradley McDougald and Tedric Thompson are no Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas, but if they don't give up big plays the defense is solid enough to get the stops it needs.
Besides playing their own division, Seattle has the unenviable task of taking on the NFC South and AFC North this year. They start the year at home against the Bengals, but play in Pittsburgh and against New Orleans right afterwards. They get a relatively easier game with Arizona to end September, but play the Rams four days later on Thurday Night Football. The Seahawks' October is one of the most difficult October schedules this year. Besides the Rams on a Thursday, they play at Cleveland and Atlanta, and have a home game versus Baltimore. Fortunately, this is their toughest month. Tampa Bay and San Francisco begin November for Seattle, and following that they have a bye week. To end the year, the team has another four opponents in a row that will challenge them -Philadelphia, Minnesota, the Rams, and Carolina- but finish the year against division foes Arizona and San Francisco. The NFC is a deep conference right now, so getting to the playoffs won't be a walk in the park. However, with Carroll coaching and Wilson playing quarterback making the playoffs again is attainable.
DIVISIONAL STANDINGS
NFC North
1. Detroit Lions
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Chicago Bears
4. Minnesota Vikings
NFC South
1. Saints
2. Falcons
3. Panthers
4. Buccaneers
NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Washington Redskins
4. New York Giants
NFC West
1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals
It’s been two heartbreaking playoff losses in a row now for the Saints, but they return many of the players who have gotten them so close to the big game. Sean Payton is one of the best offensive minds in coaching, and Dennis Allen has done good work as their DC the past few years. GM Mickey Loomis doesn’t get the credit he deserves very often; he has consistently built this roster to be a contender, and should be recognized for some very strong draft classes in recent years. The Saints Revenge Tour: Season 2 begins September 9th, on Monday Night Football.
Drew Brees is what makes this offense run so effectively, and while he does look a bit older at times, you have to think they have a shot at winning it all with him under center. Sadly, Brees’ veteran center Max Unger retired during the offseason. It looks as if this position will be filled by second round rookie Erik McCoy, a powerful run blocker. The rest of the line returns the same as it was last year, and it’s one of the NFL’s best. Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk are one of the best tackle duos in the game, and guards Andrus Peat and Larry Warford have been successful as well. Mark Ingram left in free agency to join the Ravens, but the running back corps could be the best this year. Latavious Murray signed from the Vikings, and Alvin Kamara is a superstar, on the ground and through the air. Taysom Hill is another threat in the running game- Payton loves designing plays for him, and giving opposing teams problems. In the passing game, Michael Thomas earned a big paycheck with his reliable hands. Thomas is young, but looks like an established vet, giving consistent performances every week. Ted Ginn will be the team’s deep threat, and Jared Cook came from Oakland to be New Orlean’s best receiving tight end since Jimmy Graham. He will help move the chains, and could be a red zone threat.
The Saint’s defense was close to the top in run defense last year (2nd in yards allowed/game) and did not lose any key players in the front seven. Their best defender arguably is Cameron Jordan, a sack monster. He should be a great mentor to young Marcus Davenport, who looked great when healthy last year as a rookie. In the middle, the Saints signed run stuffers Mario Edwards Jr. and Malcolm Brown in free agency for depth. Sheldon Rankins tore his ACL in the postseason, but could be back within the first six weeks to reclaim his starting defensive tackle spot. At linebacker, New Orleans still has solid player like Demario Davis who will rack up a lot of tackles, but they are not as strong against the passing game. The Saints were ranked 29th in the league last year in passing yards allowed, a surprising stat given that they have gifted players like corner Marshon Lattimore, a top corner who’s only 23 years old. Him, Eli Apple, and safeties Vonn Bell and Marcus Williams look to have a better year this year, and they should.
The Saints have an incredibly tough September, but they should be able to manage the rest of their schedule. Their first four games are against Houston, at L.A. Rams, at Seattle, and against Dallas. This is a veteran team that should be prepared to win immediately. Even if they have a slow start, I’d still expect a bounce back to relevance the rest of the year. The only teams the Saints play after September that made the playoffs last year are the Bears on October 20th, and the Colts December 16th. The Bears are still an NFC threat, but I think we’’ll see them regress a bit after their 12-4 season a year ago. With the recent retirement of Andrew Luck, I wouldn’t expect them to be contenders this year either. To summarize, if New Orleans does its job against their foes in September a playoff berth is a safe bet this year.
#2 Los Angeles Rams
The Rams came up short in the Super Bowl this February, but don’t expect them to slide because of this. Sean McVay and Wade Phillips head as good of a coaching staff as there is in the NFL. This was evidenced in the offseason’s head coaching signings: Matt LaFleur and Zac Taylor, two former assistants of the Rams, were hired as first time head coaches by the Packers and Bengals. They hope to replicate the Rams 2018 success. GM Les Snead has been active this offseason too. He brought in Clay Matthews to help the pass rush, and Eric Weddle to lead the back end of the secondary. Team stars Aaron Donald and Jared Goff were signed to long term contracts as well.
The offense has one of the deepest and most talented receiving corps in the league right now. Brandin Cooks is the deep threat, and has gone for over 1,000 yards every year since his rookie season. Robert Woods is another weapon who can do a bit of everything as a receiver, and will likely be the WR2; meanwhile, Cooper Kupp will eat up yards in the middle of the field as the slot receiver. They missed Kupp last year after an early injury- it will be interesting to watch how good the offense can be with him an entire season. Todd Gurley’s long term health has been a topic of interest ever since doctors found arthritis in one of his knees this summer. The team will likely lighten his workload, but he’ll still be one of the best running backs there is, and it should be exciting to see him healthy later in the season. A possible area of weakness is the Ram’s O-line this year. They lost starters John Sullivan and Rodger Saffold to free agency. Los Angeles still has three starters from last year, most notably left tackle Andrew Whitworth, but these positions should be watched while their replacements are introduced. If the OL holds, Jared Goff could be in a position to be an MVP candidate. He’s an accurate, smart quarterback, who should only get better with experience and the return of Kupp.
L.A.’s defense lost big names like Ndamukong Suh, Lamarcus Joyner, and Mark Barron in free agency, but it might be better this season. Aaron Donald is the best defensive linemen in football, and possibly the best player in the NFL. He and fellow defensive end Michael Brockers are matchup headaches for opposing offenses. If the other team gets behind early, the pass rush will be unleashed on them, and Clay Matthews, Dante Fowler, and Samson Ebukam will have fun destroying opposing quarterback’s comeback hopes. The secondary could be formidable as well, especially if Aqib Talib returns healthy after only playing eight games last year. Marcus Peters, Eric Weddle, and John Johnson are also talented starters in the back of the defense, and Taylor Rapp is a rookie who will fight to be on the field. This defense's weakness will be their middle linebackers. They are thin at the position, and don’t have an established star to start for them.
The Rams have two road tests in September against the Panthers and Browns, two teams that have a lot of hype entering the season, and playoff aspirations despite missing them last year. Week 2 they also play the Saints in Los Angeles. It’s a home game, but expect New Orleans to fight hard to avenge the NFC Championship, a game they thought they should have won. Shortly after an easy matchup against Tampa Bay, the Rams play a Thursday Night game in Seattle. This will be a difficult week for the team. Later, after a few other games and their bye week, the Rams have three games in a row against physical defenses: at Pittsburgh, and against Baltimore and Chicago. If the Rams prove they are worthy of this test, they will be in good shape heading into December. They start the month by playing Dallas and Seattle, but end it with weak division foes San Francisco and Arizona.
# 3 Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have all of the parts needed for another deep playoff run and division championship. The coaching staff remains one of the league’s best, headed by offensive minded Doug Peterson, and Howie Roseman orchestrated another great offseason, signing and drafting players that will help the team now and for years to come. Yes, the Eagles did lose talents like Michael Bennett, Jordan Hicks, and Philly hero Nick Foles, but the free agent signings they made should give fans of the team faith. A Super Bowl run is quite a possibility.
If Wentz can remain healthy (which is a big question mark right now) the team will run smoothly. The offensive line is both one of the NFL’s most talented and deepest. Jason Peters, Lane Johnson, Jason Kelce, and Brandon Brooks are all former Pro Bowlers who return up front. They also have notable backups Halapoulivaati Vaiti, who has played in the past filling in for Peters, and rookie tackle Andre Dillard out of Washington State, who was commonly referred to as the draft’s best pass blocker. Having Dillard and Vitai is a luxury many teams surely wish they had, and is all the more important given Peters’ old age and injury history. The Eagles drafted Penn State running back Miles Sanders in the second round, and as of this writing he has impressed the team in the offseason and is pushing for touches come week one. It is my belief that Sanders will be the full time starter come the end of the season, and he could be a three down workhorse if given the chance. Sanders may not have to play on third and longs, however. Darren Sproles is getting up there in years, but remains one of the better receiving backs there are. Speaking of receiving, throwing the ball should be fun this year for Carson Wentz. Besides Sproles, Wentz now has Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Desean Jackson, and more in a loaded receiving corps. JJ Arcega-Whiteside was drafted out of Stanford to be a red zone threat, and in rookie camp he shined. Nelson Agholor is on the final year of his contract, and while he hasn’t yet lived up to his first round draft price, he could shine in an effort to get a pay boost after his rookie contract expires.
Once again, the defensive line will be the strength of this defense. Dominant veterans Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham are back again at DT and DE, and Derek Barnett will look to take another step in his career as he gets more reps at the other defensive end spot. Malik Jackson and Vinny Curry are valuable free agent signings coming to the team, and Timmy Jernigan will give extra depth at defensive tackle. Nigel Bradham mans the middle linebacker spot and should lead the team in tackles again. The problem area on this defense is its secondary. This section -particularly the cornerback position- was hit hard by injuries last year, and opposing teams exposed their lack of depth. That being said, if injuries are not a factor the group should be fine. Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills are decent starters, and if Sidney Jones finally stays on the field a full sixteen games he could be a valuable slot corner.
Philadelphia’s opening five games are all against non-playoff teams of last year. A week one matchup against division rival Washington looks like an easy win at home. If the Eagles start strong in these five games they could carry some valuable momentum into a rough October and November. In October, the team travels to Minnesota, Dallas, and Buffalo three weeks in a row, and then has a home game against Chicago before their bye. These are all tough defensive teams that will challenge this team’s willpower. After this, the Eagles play New England and Seattle in Philly to finish November. If they make it through this gauntlet of teams with four or more wins I fully expect them to finish as a top three NFC team. This is because luckily for Eagle nation, December has four matchups that should be against teams that won’t even be in the wildcard hunt: Miami, Washington, and the Giants twice.
# 4 Detroit Lions
The NFC North is as wide open as it has been in a long time. The Packers haven’t been the consistent playoff team that they were earlier in Aaron Rodger’s career, and they moved on from Mike McCarthy last year, replacing him this offseason with first time head coach Matt LeFleur. The Bears were a 12-4 team last year, but struggles on special teams and losses in the coaching staff and depth chart are worrisome. The Viking’s lack of depth was exposed last year after a few key injuries hit them, and they made a lot of changes this offseason. This leaves the Detroit Lions. To put it nicely, the Lions have had a hard time putting together playoff worthy teams over the years, but after a string of productive offseasons, this roster looks like it’s ready to make the jump. Coach Matt Patricia and fellow ex-Patriot Bob Quinn have drafted and signed a blue collar team during their time with the franchise. This year, they’ll connect all the dots and make the playoffs.
This year, the offense will be headed by coach Derrell Bevell, who is known for his focus on the run game. This could be a good change for the Lions, who have too often over relied on Matthew Stafford in the past. The offensive line should be ready for the change. Tackles Taylor Decker and Rick Wagner are no slouches in the run or pass games. In the middle, Graham Glasgow is a solid guard, and Frank Ragnow is a second year player that performed well as a rookie, and Detroit is excited to see his continued development as he moves back to center, his position in college. T.J. Lang retired, which is a shame, but not too much of a surprise given his injury history. Kenny Wiggins filled in for him ten games last year, and should return as this year’s other starting guard. Being a run oriented team doesn’t mean Detroit will totally abandon the pass. The team has Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones once again, and signed Danny Amendola in free agency. At tight end, the Lions signed Pittsburgh’s Jesse James, and then drafted TJ Hockenson in the top ten of the draft. Both can block and be useful in the passing game, and the Lions are especially excited about Hockenson’s potential. Running backs Kerryon Johnson and CJ Anderson are capable of carrying their fair share of runs, and Matthew Stafford’s veteran savvy will help quicken the transition to a new playbook.
The offense is promising, but Matt Patricia undoubtedly hopes that the team will win through strong defensive play. Fortunately for him, this team has the players to become a top run defense, and is versatile enough to halt the pass as well. On the line, “Snacks” Harrison will be in the middle of the team’s run stopping as one of the NFL’s best nosetackles. At the other DT position, A’Shawn Robinson and Mike Daniels are capable players, and give good depth to the starting front seven. Trey Flowers is another talented player who signed in free agency, and his connection to coach Patricia from their days in New England should be useful. Romeo Okwara was last year’s team leader in sacks, and looks to improve on a good year. Jarrad Davis is the leader of the defense, and reports say he has been improving during the offseason. Christian Jones mans another LB spot. Devon Kennard had seven sacks last year during his first year with the Lions, and the Lions traded up in the second round to get Jahlani Tavai. Darius Slay is an underrated CB1, and will shadow the opponent’s best receiver all year. Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin were signed for CB depth, and Quandre Diggs is a hard hitting strong safety who will get even better with experience. The Lions were eleventh in the league in sacks last year without a household name, and now they have guys like Flowers and Daniels. If they can just improve on their interception totals (29th last year) their run-centered, ball control offense will suffocate opponents with what would be a more positive turnover margin.
The Lions start their season with what should be an easy win- the Arizona Cardinals. Their September won’t be a breeze though- they have games against the Chargers and Chiefs at home, and another matchup in Philadelphia. After their bye week, they head to Lambeau, but I think with two week’s preparation Detroit could come out with a win. Following that crucial game, Detroit plays Minnesota at home, and then they have two weeks in a row of should-wins: the Giants and Raiders. The rest of November has tests against Dallas and two games against the Bears, but December has four games that the Lions are capable of winning, especially if they’re coming off of a hot streak; after playing in Minnesota, Detroit plays Tampa Bay, travels to Denver, and finishes against Green Bay at home. It’s not an undemanding schedule, but if the Lions play strong against their division -as I believe they will- they will go into the playoffs as the number four seed.
# 5 (Wildcard) Dallas Cowboys
Jason Garrett has seemed incompetent at times as head coach of the Cowboys, but he led this Dallas team once again into a decent playoff run, and expectations are high for another season. A lot of credit should go to the Jones family, who has done an excellent job for several years running now building the team in the draft and free agency. Dallas has so much talent on its roster that it is in a financial bind this coming offseason. This roster is stacked with terrific players, and another playoff push should be in the future this year.
After a training camp holdout, Zeke should be fresh enough to get a lot of touches this year again. He is in great shape to start the season, but before they give him the ball thirty times a game a valuable lesson (that the Rams now wish they would have learned last year) should be talked about in the Dallas front office and staff room. Todd Gurley, was an outstanding force for the regular season last year, but struggled to get on the field Super Bowl Sunday. This was because of his heavy workload during the season. Tony Pollard is a rookie the team really likes, and could spell Zeke to make sure he stays healthy all year; Dallas should consider this approach to the backfield. In the meantime, Dallas’ offensive line is once again one of the league’s best, and some very important players are returning to bolster the line even more. Travis Frederick is expected to return this year after missing all of last year with an illness. His value to the line was seen with his absence, and now that he’s back he’ll be a leader up front. Zack Martin is an All-Pro, and Tyron Smith is a top left tackle. La’el Collins and Connor Williams struggled at times last year, but both were top prospects out of college, and still have a lot of room to grow. They are also backed by a deep group with men such as Joe Looney, who got to play center last year for Frederick. Jason Witten won’t be a super star in the passing game, but will be Dak’s safety blanket again now that Cole Beasley is in Buffalo, and he strengthens the Cowboy’s run offense in ways that Geoff Swaim and Blake Jarwin couldn’t last year. Dak is back as starter, and should have a good year. The offense should start out better this year than they did last year; Kellen Moore was promoted from QB coach to offensive coordinator, and should find ways to maximise Dak’s talents. The receiving corps has Amari Cooper, second year breakout candidate Michael Gallup, and slot threat Randall Cobb. All three should be effective.
The defense last year was the best to wear the star in a long time, and could improve even more this year. The D-line will miss David Irving’s talent, but won’t miss his suspensions and off field distractions. Demarcus Lawrence is a force to be reckoned with, and is on the franchise tag this year, so he will be highly motivated once again. Taco Charlton and Randy Gregory have potential, but have both disappointed for their own different reasons thus far, so the Boys brought in Robert Quinn to be another veteran example and show off a bit of what made him so special in his prime- his pass rush. Tyrone Crawford and Antwuan Woods will play the starting DT roles, but Maliek Collins and rookie Trysten Hill will rotate in to keep them fresh. The Cowboys have a star group of linebackers. Jaylon Smith makes it appear as if the Fiesta Bowl injury that let him slip to the second round never happened. Vander Esch was booed a bit on draft day last year, but proved his doubters wrong. Sean Lee is a great NFL vet, but will he ever stay on the field for an entire season again? It’s not likely, but if he’s healthy in December and January, watch out. The secondary looked much improved last year, but it tied for 26th in interceptions. If that number rises, the defense could go from good to dominant. Kris Richard, the Passing Game Coordinator and DBs coach was excellent at his previous job in Seattle, and is now in Dallas, developing Byron Jones and late round gems like Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown. He is seen by some as a head coach candidate this next offseason, and if the secondary does well, his stock should rise even more.
Since the Cowboys won their division last year, their schedule has them face many division winners of last year as well. Their tough schedule -especially at the end of the year- is the reason I project that they will be a wild card team, and lose the division to Philly. The first three games should be a cakewalk, but the difficulty begins to ramp up starting with a week four game in New Orleans. A mid season bye gives them time to prepare for the playoff team slugfest that they have to go through in November and December. There are some games that Dallas should win, but some really challenging tests as well. After playing in New England, Dallas plays four days later on Thanksgiving day against a physical Buffalo team. Following that, the Boys play at Chicago, against the Rams, and then at Philadelphia. This is one of the most difficult Decembers this season. If Dallas gets through that just barely in the hunt, week seventeen may be a challenge as well. They play the Redskins, a team that won’t be in the playoffs, but will be playing for their jobs; in the past, the Redskins have liked nothing more than knocking a division rival out of the playoff bracket. There will be losses in November and December. It’s how the Cowboys handle them that will determine whether they will be a contender or a pretender.
# 6 (Wild Card) Seattle Seahawks
Last year, before the season began there were many questions surrounding the Seahawks. Some major parts of the Legion of Boom were heading to new teams, and the dynasty seemed to be coming to an end. Then, Seattle rallied a young team together and made it to the playoffs. Pete Carroll has once again proven how well he can coach young players into excellence- even those who weren't talked about too much while coming into the league. John Schneider is also a mastermind at GM, who made some moves this year to keep the team in contention. There are still a lot of new faces on this roster, but they are ready to make a name for themselves this year.
Russell Wilson was given an enormous contract extension recently, and for good reason. He can make the case that he is the best quarterback in the league. The offense shifted to a run heavy playbook last year, so Wilson won't throw 50 touchdowns anytime soon, but he can sling it when needed. Relying on the run is part of what made this offense a lot better than what many thought they would be last year. Chris Carson proved he could be a workhorse back, and he could be even more involved in offensive plans this year. Tyler Lockett is an efficient deep threat, and is now Wilson's number one target after Doug Baldwin's retirement. D.K. Metcalf is another exciting player that was drafted this year by the Hawks; if he lives up to his huge NFL combine, Metcalf could be special. The offensive line is well suited for a lot of run blocking. Duane Brown and Germain Ifedi will be the tackles, Justin Britt returns at center, and D.J. Fluker and free agent signing Mike Iupati will play guard. Tight end depth is still very thin, and there aren't players at the position to be enthusiastic about- Will Dissly is the starter.
After trading Frank Clark for a first round pick and having Earl Thomas leave, the Seahawks looked pretty bare on defense. Then, in the draft they chose L.J. Collier in the first round with their Frank Clark pick, and got some other defensive depth players like Marquise Blair. It was after free agency and the draft that Schneider started making real improvements to the defense though. He signed Ziggy Ansah, who has had a lot of ups and downs in his career, but still shows potential. Then, late in the preseason, Schneider showed why he's a top GM- he acquired Jadeveon Clowney in exchange for Seattle's third round pick and some bench players. The front seven looks formidable again after the trade. Defensive tackles Poona Ford and Jarran Reed were showing some real promise as starters last year, and they are back. Bobby Wagner is the anchor of the defense, and is surrounded by a lot of good linebackers like Mychal Kendricks, K.J.Wright, and Shaquem Griffin. Griffin's brother Shaquill will be a starting corner with Tre Flowers on the other side. Bradley McDougald and Tedric Thompson are no Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas, but if they don't give up big plays the defense is solid enough to get the stops it needs.
Besides playing their own division, Seattle has the unenviable task of taking on the NFC South and AFC North this year. They start the year at home against the Bengals, but play in Pittsburgh and against New Orleans right afterwards. They get a relatively easier game with Arizona to end September, but play the Rams four days later on Thurday Night Football. The Seahawks' October is one of the most difficult October schedules this year. Besides the Rams on a Thursday, they play at Cleveland and Atlanta, and have a home game versus Baltimore. Fortunately, this is their toughest month. Tampa Bay and San Francisco begin November for Seattle, and following that they have a bye week. To end the year, the team has another four opponents in a row that will challenge them -Philadelphia, Minnesota, the Rams, and Carolina- but finish the year against division foes Arizona and San Francisco. The NFC is a deep conference right now, so getting to the playoffs won't be a walk in the park. However, with Carroll coaching and Wilson playing quarterback making the playoffs again is attainable.
DIVISIONAL STANDINGS
NFC North
1. Detroit Lions
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Chicago Bears
4. Minnesota Vikings
NFC South
1. Saints
2. Falcons
3. Panthers
4. Buccaneers
NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Washington Redskins
4. New York Giants
NFC West
1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
2019 Preseason Playoff Projections & Standings (AFC)
#1 New England Patriots
The timeless Patriots are coming off yet another Super Bowl win, and expect nothing less yet again this year. Belichick always puts his team in a position to win, no matter what his roster looks like. Luckily for him, he has a lot of gifted players this year to work with. Sure, there were some notable losses this offseason -most notably Rob Gronkowski’s retirement- and off the field scandals/ issues that New England had to deal with, but this team will be locked and loaded for week one against Pittsburgh.Tom Brady still hasn’t slowed down, and he’s 42 years old. Barring an injury, I don’t expect him to stop his winning ways this year. Antonio Brown will be the most prolific wideout Brady’s had since Randy Moss. Julian Edelman will still be the team’s top slot target, and Josh Gordon’s reinstatement gives the offense a boost. With the signing of AB, the receiving room went from one of the Pat’s worst in years to one of its strongest. The offensive line has established stars like Shaq Mason and newcomers like Isaiah Wynn. Dante Scarnecchia is one of the best offensive line coaches there are, and should strengthen the front no matter who’s playing. Tight end is a weakness now that Gronk is gone, but rumor has it that he may return. If he does, expect it to be later in the season when the team is nearing the playoffs. The halfback position is another deep one; New England is great at rotating players like Sony Michel and James White to best exploit the defense’s weakness. James Develin is also a multi-talented fullback that will be in a variety of packages
On defense, Brian Flores is no longer the defensive coordinator, but the real mastermind of the unit is Bill Belichick, so it will continue to be dominant. On the line, star Trey Flowers is gone, as well as standout Malcolm Brown. Veteran Michael Bennett was added to help replace them, and rookie Chase Winovich from Michigan was a preseason standout who could contribute early. Players from last year’s Super Bowl winning team such as Deatrich Wise, Danny Shelton, and Lawrence Guy remain, and their experience with the system will help as the newcomers adjust. The linebackers of the team are talented, do it all players that really make the system run effectively. The position is headlined by Dont’a Hightower, and Kyle Van Noy showed he can be a very useful piece last year. Jamie Collins returns to New England after some time with the Browns. In the secondary, Stephon Gilmore has proven to be possibly the best corner in the game right now. His Super Bowl performance was phenomenal, and his interception of a Jared Goff pass in the fourth quarter sealed the game. Patrick Chung may miss some time after an offseason issue involving cocaine possession, but the team has a lot of depth at safety. Two players who stood out last year at safety were Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon. They will be back, along with corners Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, and young players like J.C. Jackson and rookie Joejuan Williams, who the team traded up for in the second round this April.
The Pats season starts at home against Pittsburgh, a difficult matchup, but any game in Foxborough will be viewed as an advantageous one by the organization. After that, a slew of likely non-playoff teams is lined up to meet New England. This six week stretch goes as follows: at Miami, Jets, at Buffalo, at Washington, Giants, at Jets. My projection has the Bills as the only projected playoff team in that list, but they’re likely to barely make it in. Playing in Buffalo in September is also a major scheduling advantage; the chill of New Era Field can get to some teams in the winter, but it will probably be perfect weather for football in the fall. Before their bye, the Patriots play against the Browns (finally another team that could be in the playoff hunt) and then their most challenging game since week one: at Baltimore. The bye week marks a change in the season for New England. Their most difficult tests follows their week of rest. Four games of traveling to Philadelphia and Houston and playing the Chiefs and Cowboys could really wear down on a team. Luckily for the Pats, none of these games are a Thursday night matchup. Speaking of luck, to finish the season they play possibly the league’s two worst teams (Cincinnati and Miami) and Buffalo at home. The Patriots have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year. A bye week in the playoffs should await them once again.
#2 Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were a coin flip away from going to the Super Bowl last year. This year, they might have a better roster than the one that made the AFC Championship. Andy Reid is a top head coach in the NFL, and he’s as hungry as ever for his first Super Bowl win. To get there, he fired defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, who’s squad was at times horrendous last year. A lot of Chiefs that led the team a few years ago have now been let go. Defensive stars of yester-year -names like Allen Bailey, Eric Berry, Justin Houston and even Dee Ford- were cut or traded. The organization signed and traded for some replacements on defense, but make no mistake, this new age for “Chiefs Kingdom” will be led by Patrick Mahomes and his high powered offense.
Patrick Mahomes is the reigning MVP, and there’s no reason to think he’ll slow down after a hot start to his career. The most significant loss to the offense was losing center Mitch Morse to free agency. The rest of the offensive line returns, including tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, two very important protectors. Travis Kelce is the best tight end in the NFL right now, and can do everything Reid may ask of him. In the backfield, Damien Williams returns as the starter, but he’ll share touches with late signee LeSean McCoy, who reunites with Reid, years after their time together in Philadelphia. Darwin Thompson is a rookie that may work his way on the field for a few touches a game, and Anthony Sherman is a pro bowl fullback that gives the Chiefs even more options when drawing up plays. Lastly, there are the wide receivers, and they are a scary bunch. Tyreek Hill is one of the most feared players in the NFL; Hill’s speed is unreal, and a perfect compliment to Mahomes’ rocket arm. Sammy Watkins is in his second year in K.C. and is a threat when healthy. Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman will back them up. This receiving corps is the quickest there is.
The Chiefs were one of the worst defenses last year, so Steve Spagnuolo was brought in to hopefully right the ship. His resume includes some really good defensive seasons, and some really bad ones. GM Brett Veach has worked hard to assemble some good players for this side of the ball though, and the entire team is buzzing with excitement. Frank Clark takes one of the defensive end spots after starting his career in Seattle. He can play the run and rush the passer well. Chris Jones is a sack machine for Kansas City, and now will move inside to DT in the new 4-3 base defense. Derrick Nnadi will play the 1-technique and stop the run inside. Alex Okafor and Emmanuel Ogbah will likely share snaps at the opposite defensive end spot. At linebacker, the team has more depth than one might expect- Reggie Ragland and Darron Lee were highly graded prospects coming into the league, but are backups at the moment to Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson. Having Tyrann Mathieu at safety should help the secondary, but it may not be enough. The other safety spot will be played by Daniel Sorenson and rookie Juan Thornhill, so you could say that position won’t be a strength on the team. At corner, Kendall Fuller will be their best player in the slot, and Breshaud Breeland and second year Chief Charvarius Ward man the outsides. There will be some shootouts this year, but the front seven is good enough that they’ll win plenty of them.
September should be a good month for K.C. Their most difficult matchup of the month is Baltimore, but it’s their first home game of the year, and the crowd should be in full force, amping up the offense and giving the Ravens trouble with communication. In October, the Chiefs play teams that likely will be hot and cold throughout the year (Colts and the Packers), and their scheduling challenge of the year will be a game against Houston and then another in Denver four days later. Both of those teams have some serious defensive clout, but Chiefs everywhere will remain confident in their team’s offense. November has them play Minnesota, at Tennessee, and in Mexico City against the Chargers; there are a considerable amount of Chiefs fans in Mexico, so it should feel like a home game in front of around 90,000 fans. Another thing of note to look out for in Estadio Azteca is the altitude. The stadium is 7,200 feet above sea level, which is much higher than even Denver’s notorious Mile High Stadium. It will be interesting to see how this affects both team’s performance. After that, Kansas City has a bye followed by a home game against the Raiders to start December, which will be the toughest month on the schedule. Games in Chicago and New England are both very difficult, especially in the cold of winter, and the Chiefs travel to both. They also have home games against their division rivals, the Broncos and Chargers, who are both looking like fringe playoff teams and will not go down easily. Despite these late tests, the beginning of the schedule should look good to the Chiefs Kingdom. There is not a back to back week stretch of playoff teams from last year, or teams that I project will go to the playoffs this year. This team should have a bye week in the playoffs again.
#3 Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh fans likely think that last year was sabotaged by Le’Veon Bell’s holdout and Antonio Brown’s off the field distractions. The good news for those is that both of those players now on new teams. Not only that, but the team has found worthy guys to replace them. Mike Tomlin has proved that he can win big games. With Roethlisberger on the team, young talent surrounding him, and a defense that has improved a lot, the Steelers look primed to return to the playoffs again.
All of the drama that went on in Oakland surrounding Antonio Brown is undoubtedly making Pittsburgh feel like they did the right thing in letting him go. His talent is unquestionable, but the distractions he causes take away from the unity a team needs to succeed. Juju Smith-Schuster will take AB’s place, and he looks like a good replacement. He’s a talented, hard working player, and a good teammate too, as evidenced by him winning the team’s MVP award last year. His positive energy is what the Steelers need. The receivers around him aren’t proven yet, but have potential and a good quarterback- a recipe for success. Donte Moncrief, James Washington, and Ryan Switzer will be valuable to this offense after losing their All-Pro receiver. At tight end, Vance McDonald had a breakout year last year, and is earning Roethlisberger’s trust. He’ll be an active member in the game plan as well. The offensive line has been consistently good over the years, and veteran starters Villanueva, Foster, Pouncey, and DeCastro all return. They’ll protect their QB and open up holes for new starting running back, James Conner. Conner was putting up great numbers before missing a few games to injury last year, and he’ll be their workhorse back again this year. The offense doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but a thing to be watched is how they respond to the losses of two crucial positional coaches, Mike Munchak and Darryl Drake. Munchak was the team’s long time O-line coach, but left to join Denver this offseason. Darryl Drake -the receiver’s coach- passed away unexpectedly on August 11th. He was a great coach, coaching receiving stars like Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitzgerald, and was loved by his players.
The current Steelers defense may be its most talented since their last Super Bowl appearance. Cameron Heyward, Javon Hargrave, and Stephon Tuitt are studs on the D-line. T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree will man the outside linebacker spots, and really help on the pas rush. The team led the NFL in sacks last year, and wants to repeat their success. In the middle linebacker spots, the Steelers will likely have a three man rotation. Devin Bush, their first round pick from Michigan, may not start day one, but will work his way into the starting lineup. Vince Williams is their run stopping linebacker, while they brought in Mark Barron from the Rams to slow down opposing backs and tight ends in the passing game. Their secondary isn’t anything flashy, but they’ll do their job. Joe Haden is their CB1, and was signed to an extension. Terrell Edmunds looks to make a year two jump, and Sean Davis will hold the free safety spot. Corner is still their weakness, but with a front seven as talented as theirs if they can hold their ground for just a little bit the team will have more victories than losses.
The AFC North will be a slugfest this year, and making the playoffs won’t be easy. After starting in New England, Pittsburgh plays Seattle week two. San Fran and Cincinnati should be two of their easier games, but afterwards they meet Baltimore and travel to L.A. to play the Chargers. The Chargers are still playing in Stubhub Center though, and have the least intimidating home crowd in the NFL. Four or five wins by their week seven bye will be difficult, but not impossible. After coming off a bye and playing a terrible Miami team, the Steelers start November against the Colts, the Rams, and a game in Cleveland. If they make it out of this stretch, the Steelers have a favorable schedule to end the year, and should be in good shape. Two of the more threatening teams they play will be the Browns and Bills, and they have both of those games at home. Easy wins on the road against the Bengals, Cardinals, and Jets should only boost the team’s confidence before their toughest test of the winter: a game in Baltimore week seventeen. Depending on how hot the Steelers start the year, they could have a playoff bye. One thing seems to be sure though: a playoff berth is in the future for this year’s Pittsburgh Steelers.
#4 Houston Texans
The retirement of Andrew Luck meant the Colts lost their spot as likely AFC South champs, and it opens up an opportunity for the Texans to repeat as the divisional leader. Bill O’Brien -the Texan’s head coach and interim general manager- understands the urgency it will take to capitalize on the team’s contention window. With future Hall of Famer J.J. Watt aging, but still producing at a top level, and Deshaun Watson playing at a high level on his rookie contract, Houston decided to make some last second moves this offseason, and has gone all in on their Super Bowl chances this year. Sure, the Jadeveon Clowney deal was a terrible one, and the team gave up a lot to get Laremy Tunsil, but it shows the organization knew its strengths and weaknesses, and the importance of depth and balance on a roster. Will they make a championship push, or will they collapse again?. O’Brien is on the hot seat, and it’s time to show what he can do with a great team.
Offensively, this will be the best unit the Texans have had since 2012 with Arian Foster and Matt Schaub leading the way. Deshaun Watson is healthy, and had all offseason to train and improve on his already great QB game. DeAndre Hopkins is the best wide receiver in football right now; Nuk didn’t drop a pass last year (according to Pro Football Focus) and is as consistent and hard working as they come. Will Fuller is outstanding on the field, but the problem is that he is rarely on it. He has recovered from another knee injury, and if he stays healthy this may be one of the best receiving corps in the league. Keke Coutee is another receiver who was improving before he got injured. He’s back again, but for insurance the Texans smartly brought in Kenny Stills to provide depth. Lamar Miller tore his ACL and is out for the year, but running backs Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde will take his place. Neither are All-Pros, but Duke will bring help in the passing game, while Hyde will provide the tough yards on the ground. The importance of getting Laremy Tunsil at tackle can not be stressed enough. The O-line struggled all last season, especially in pass protection. Tunsil is extremely talented, and allows the Texans to move guys around to better the entire line. Nick Martin and Zach Fulton were two of the better linemen for Houston, but have struggled with injuries. They’ll be joined by this year’s first round pick, Tytus Howard, in the middle. The offense’s worst position is tight end. Right now, they have several players at the position who haven’t made much of an impact, but if someone like Jordan Akins proves he can make a difference the offense will be that much better.
Houston unexplainably got rid of Jadeveon Clowney for barely anything. They could have kept him one more year while he played on the franchise tag, but something went wrong in the negotiations, and now he’s a Seahawk. That’s alright; Houston still has one of the best front sevens in the game. J.J. Watt is back, and he’s healthy. D.J. Reader, Angelo Blackson, and Carlos Watkins probably won’t get ten sacks, but they’ll stop the run as well as anyone. This a big year for Whitney Mercilus and Barkevious Mingo. They have to make up for some of the sacks the team lost when they traded Clowney. Romeo Crennel is great at scheming and working with what his players are good at, so they’ll still be a top pass rush team. Benardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham are a great linebacker duo, and should perform at a high level once more. The question mark on the defense is its secondary, and the Texans made a lot of changes in the offseason in hopes of making it better. Gone are Tyrann Mathieu and Kareem Jackson, replaced by Bradley Roby and Tashaun Gipson. Roby is the young, speedy corner they’ve needed since letting A.J. Bouye walk in free agency; the new corner can cover receivers like T.Y. Hilton, who gave the team headaches last year. Gipson is a hard hitting safety who can cover tight ends well, something the team could not do with the feisty, but small, Tyrann Mathieu. Long toothed veteran Johnathan Joseph will play CB2 now, and Aaron Colvin is finally healthy enough to play in the slot. Another name to watch is Lonnie Johnson, a second round rookie who showed his competitive spirit in training camp.
This year’s schedule is not the cakewalk that last year’s was for the Texans. They start in New Orleans, and go through a slew of tough opponents like the Chargers, Panthers, Falcons, and Chiefs (in Kansas City). Their easiest game before their bye week is the Raiders on October 27th. Then, Houston travels to Baltimore, plays Indianapolis four days later on Thursday night football, and has to deal with New England in their next matchup. If they can survive their first twelve games with a winning record, they can cruise through the rest of December to a playoff berth. They play Denver in Houston, have two road games in a row against Tennessee and Tampa, and complete their season at home against the Titans.
#5 (Wild Card) Los Angeles Chargers
Predicting how the Chargers will do in a season has been an especially difficult task in the last few years, and it will be again this year. It seems with this organization there is always a rash of star players going down with an injury, or some sort of off field distraction that brings down what should be a good team. In years past, it’s been Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa, Hunter Henry, and more who have missed time. This year, it’s Derwin James who went down with a preseason injury that will have him miss significant time, and Melvin Gordon is holding out for a new contract, and may miss the entire year himself. The good news is that the Chargers still have a quality coaching staff and a lot of other good players. Anthony Lynn, Ken Whisenhunt, and Gus Bradley looked like they were finally unlocking some of this team’s potential last year, going 12-4, finally beating the Chiefs, and winning a playoff game. This team will be fun to watch as they attempt to maintain their winning ways.
Philip Rivers’ case for the Hall of Fame would be a lot stronger if he could finally reach the Super Bowl this year. Rivers is still producing at a high level, and really makes this offense click. Keenan Allen will be the Charger’s number one target, and for good reason. He’s one of the best route runners in the game right now, and creates a lot of separation against even the best of corners. Mike Williams will be the WR2, and is looking to make even more of an impact after catching ten touchdowns last year on only 43 catches. Hunter Henry is back at tight end after years of injury struggles. He was a talented target early in his career. Despite Melvin Gordon’s holdout, the Chargers should be able to move the ball on the ground reasonably well. Austin Ekeler looked good last year when Gordon missed time, and is a top pass catching running back. Justin Jackson will get some carries as well, and fullback Derek Watt opens running lanes spectacularly. Most of last year’s offensive line returns, and while they’re not terrible, they are they are the vulnerable spot on the offense. They are an up and down unit, and are thin depth-wise.
This defense will really miss Derwin James, who looked like an All Pro in the making last year in his rookie season. He can make his return later this year, but they’ll have to find ways to win without him for now. The defensive line is the defense’s strength. If Joey Bosa can stay healthy for sixteen games and more, there’s no telling what he can do. He is a versatile piece for Gus Bradley to work with. Melvin Ingram will man the other edge spot, and has proven that he is a consistent pass rush threat. In the middle, starters Brandon Mebane and Justin Jones return, but a player to watch is first round pick Jerry Tillery, a highly graded prospect who fell to L.A. because of injuries in his senior year at Notre Dame. At linebacker, Denzel Perryman has trouble staying on the field due to injuries, but is a tackling machine when he is playing. Thomas Davis was brought in from Carolina, and should be a good locker room guy as well as a veteran contributor. The linebackers aren’t bad, but do need to improve for the defense to be elite. In the secondary, Casey Hayward is the CB1, and be a lockdown defender. Desmond King is a great slot corner, so he’ll play there while Michael Davis takes the other outside corner spot. Adrian Phillips is an above average strong safety who plays well against the run and pass, but free safety will be a spot of struggles as the Chargers try to decide between young safeties Rayshawn Jenkins and second round rookie Nassir Adderley.
It appears the Chargers drew the short stick when it comes to this year’s schedule. They did get Indy week one at home, who will be at their weakest early in the year as they adjust from the surprising Luck retirement, but afterwards the Chargers have games in Detroit and against the Texans. In October, they play Denver and Pittsburgh, and then end the month with back to back road games in Tennessee and Chicago. Pittsburgh will be the best team they face that month, but the three other teams won’t be guaranteed wins either. Green Bay and Oakland will be the best two-game stretch L.A. has had up to this point of their schedule, but they come four days apart because of a Thursday night game, and then the team ends its November games with a matchup in Mexico City against the Chiefs. After a game like that, any team would be happy to have a bye week, and the Chargers are fortunate enough to have one here. However, this is followed by the second mile high altitude game in a row for Los Angeles- they travel to Denver for their first December game. Will L.A. use their bye week to practice somewhere else like the Air Force Academy to stay used to the altitude like other teams have done in the past? If so, will it be beneficial, or will the players be exhausted by having three weeks in a row of high altitudes? This is all speculation right now, but something to consider. The rest of December goes as follows: at Jacksonville, vs. Minnesota, vs. Oakland, and then finishing the year at Arrowhead stadium for yet another road game against the Chiefs. If the Chargers play as well as they did last year on the road (7-1) they could have a real chance to make the playoffs. The schedule didn’t do them any favors, but the best teams always find ways to win, and I think they’ll do enough to make a wildcard spot.
#6 (Wild Card) Buffalo Bills
On the surface, the Bills of the 2018 season were one of the ten worst teams in the league; however, Buffalo did a lot of things well that were overlooked because of their final record. Their pass defense was one of the best in the league, and regularly shut down opponent’s quarterbacks. Young players like Tremaine Edmunds improved as the year went on. The problems for the team were all on offense. This came as a surprise to almost no one. It is tough to start a rookie quarterback in any situation, much less on a team with a bad offensive line, an aging starting running back, and little receiving help. The Bills made a lot of changes this offseason to fix those problems. Sean McDermott has proven he’s a capable NFL coach; two years ago McDermott even led his team to an unlikely playoff berth. The organization has finally built the roster to fit McDermott’s preferences, and the “Bill’s Mafia” should be excited about the things to come.
The first order of business for the Bills this free agency was surrounding Josh Allen with better players. At receiver, they brought in John Brown, a speed threat who will compliment Allen’s big arm, and Cole Beasley, a slot ace who can get open in short yardage situations. Allen had to scramble too much last year, and having a reliable receiving corp will help fix that. Buffalo also invested a lot in their offensive line. They signed a lot of guys to create depth at the position, and drafted Cody Ford from Oklahoma in the second round. Mitch Morse was a standout signing from Kansas City, and will start day one at center. The offense still won’t be worldbeaters though; running back and tight end will be worrisome spots of the roster if no one steps up early. After cutting LeSean McCoy, the Bills are hoping Frank Gore and rookie Devin Singletary can produce in the backfield. Their new starting tight end is Tyler Kroft, who only became a starter on the Bengals after Tyler Eifert went down with an injury, and still lost a lot of receptions to C.J. Uzomah. The main focus should be moving the ball and controlling turnovers- if they can do that, they could improve their win totals drastically.
Sadly, Kyle Williams finally retired after an outstanding career spent in Buffalo. He was a team leader, and will likely go in the Bills Hall of Fame. For a while, this left a spot open at defensive tackle, a very important position in McDermott’s system. Then, Ed Oliver fell to them in the draft, and Bills everywhere rejoiced. Some thought Oliver was in the running for the number one pick, but after a senior year full of troubles at Houston, his stock fell a bit by draft night. Now, the Bills are loaded with talent at defensive tackle again. Star Lotulelei, Jordan Phillips, and Harrison Phillips join Ed Oliver to wreak havoc in the middle. Trent Murphy and Jerry Hughes will start at defensive end, and are backed up by former first round pick Shaq Lawson. The D-line is set, and should give their linebackers plenty of big play opportunities. At middle linebacker, Tremaine Edmunds is fast and athletic, and still has a lot of untapped potential. Lorenzo Alexander and Matt Milano will flank him at the outside linebacker spots, and are steady veterans who will get the job done. The secondary has a great cornerback in Tre’Davious White, and a deep safety corps that includes Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and Kurt Coleman. They didn’t lose anyone to free agency, so they look to continue their success from last year.
It can be argued that Buffalo doesn’t play a good team until week four, a home game against New England. If the team gets off to a hot start, it will mean a lot for momentum. After New England, Buffalo plays Tennessee, and then has a bye before a game versus Miami. Their last game in October is against Philadelphia. Through week 8, they only play two of my projected playoff teams, and the rest of the games they play are against teams that likely won’t even be in the late season playoff hunt. This is very favorable for a team that’s likely looking for a wildcard berth. November is when the challenging teams begin to show up. Washington should be a team they can beat, but the Bills travel two weeks in a row to Cleveland and Miami. They finish November against Denver and at Dallas, who both may be barely holding onto playoff hopes. They won’t be easy wins. If Buffalo can win even three games in November after a successful start, they can likely make the playoffs, which is good news because December will be brutal for the team. They play Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at New England, and end with the Jets. The Bills will be in some close games against some not-so-great teams, and will come up with some upset wins themselves. In the end, making the playoffs is a goal that they can achieve.
DIVISIONAL STANDINGS
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South
1. Houston Texans
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Tennessee Titans
AFC East
1. New England Patriots
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New York Jets
4. Miami Dolphins
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Los Angeles Chargers
3. Denver Broncos
4. Oakland Raiders
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