#1 New England Patriots
The timeless Patriots are coming off yet another Super Bowl win, and expect nothing less yet again this year. Belichick always puts his team in a position to win, no matter what his roster looks like. Luckily for him, he has a lot of gifted players this year to work with. Sure, there were some notable losses this offseason -most notably Rob Gronkowski’s retirement- and off the field scandals/ issues that New England had to deal with, but this team will be locked and loaded for week one against Pittsburgh.Tom Brady still hasn’t slowed down, and he’s 42 years old. Barring an injury, I don’t expect him to stop his winning ways this year. Antonio Brown will be the most prolific wideout Brady’s had since Randy Moss. Julian Edelman will still be the team’s top slot target, and Josh Gordon’s reinstatement gives the offense a boost. With the signing of AB, the receiving room went from one of the Pat’s worst in years to one of its strongest. The offensive line has established stars like Shaq Mason and newcomers like Isaiah Wynn. Dante Scarnecchia is one of the best offensive line coaches there are, and should strengthen the front no matter who’s playing. Tight end is a weakness now that Gronk is gone, but rumor has it that he may return. If he does, expect it to be later in the season when the team is nearing the playoffs. The halfback position is another deep one; New England is great at rotating players like Sony Michel and James White to best exploit the defense’s weakness. James Develin is also a multi-talented fullback that will be in a variety of packages
On defense, Brian Flores is no longer the defensive coordinator, but the real mastermind of the unit is Bill Belichick, so it will continue to be dominant. On the line, star Trey Flowers is gone, as well as standout Malcolm Brown. Veteran Michael Bennett was added to help replace them, and rookie Chase Winovich from Michigan was a preseason standout who could contribute early. Players from last year’s Super Bowl winning team such as Deatrich Wise, Danny Shelton, and Lawrence Guy remain, and their experience with the system will help as the newcomers adjust. The linebackers of the team are talented, do it all players that really make the system run effectively. The position is headlined by Dont’a Hightower, and Kyle Van Noy showed he can be a very useful piece last year. Jamie Collins returns to New England after some time with the Browns. In the secondary, Stephon Gilmore has proven to be possibly the best corner in the game right now. His Super Bowl performance was phenomenal, and his interception of a Jared Goff pass in the fourth quarter sealed the game. Patrick Chung may miss some time after an offseason issue involving cocaine possession, but the team has a lot of depth at safety. Two players who stood out last year at safety were Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon. They will be back, along with corners Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, and young players like J.C. Jackson and rookie Joejuan Williams, who the team traded up for in the second round this April.
The Pats season starts at home against Pittsburgh, a difficult matchup, but any game in Foxborough will be viewed as an advantageous one by the organization. After that, a slew of likely non-playoff teams is lined up to meet New England. This six week stretch goes as follows: at Miami, Jets, at Buffalo, at Washington, Giants, at Jets. My projection has the Bills as the only projected playoff team in that list, but they’re likely to barely make it in. Playing in Buffalo in September is also a major scheduling advantage; the chill of New Era Field can get to some teams in the winter, but it will probably be perfect weather for football in the fall. Before their bye, the Patriots play against the Browns (finally another team that could be in the playoff hunt) and then their most challenging game since week one: at Baltimore. The bye week marks a change in the season for New England. Their most difficult tests follows their week of rest. Four games of traveling to Philadelphia and Houston and playing the Chiefs and Cowboys could really wear down on a team. Luckily for the Pats, none of these games are a Thursday night matchup. Speaking of luck, to finish the season they play possibly the league’s two worst teams (Cincinnati and Miami) and Buffalo at home. The Patriots have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year. A bye week in the playoffs should await them once again.
#2 Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were a coin flip away from going to the Super Bowl last year. This year, they might have a better roster than the one that made the AFC Championship. Andy Reid is a top head coach in the NFL, and he’s as hungry as ever for his first Super Bowl win. To get there, he fired defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, who’s squad was at times horrendous last year. A lot of Chiefs that led the team a few years ago have now been let go. Defensive stars of yester-year -names like Allen Bailey, Eric Berry, Justin Houston and even Dee Ford- were cut or traded. The organization signed and traded for some replacements on defense, but make no mistake, this new age for “Chiefs Kingdom” will be led by Patrick Mahomes and his high powered offense.
Patrick Mahomes is the reigning MVP, and there’s no reason to think he’ll slow down after a hot start to his career. The most significant loss to the offense was losing center Mitch Morse to free agency. The rest of the offensive line returns, including tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, two very important protectors. Travis Kelce is the best tight end in the NFL right now, and can do everything Reid may ask of him. In the backfield, Damien Williams returns as the starter, but he’ll share touches with late signee LeSean McCoy, who reunites with Reid, years after their time together in Philadelphia. Darwin Thompson is a rookie that may work his way on the field for a few touches a game, and Anthony Sherman is a pro bowl fullback that gives the Chiefs even more options when drawing up plays. Lastly, there are the wide receivers, and they are a scary bunch. Tyreek Hill is one of the most feared players in the NFL; Hill’s speed is unreal, and a perfect compliment to Mahomes’ rocket arm. Sammy Watkins is in his second year in K.C. and is a threat when healthy. Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman will back them up. This receiving corps is the quickest there is.
The Chiefs were one of the worst defenses last year, so Steve Spagnuolo was brought in to hopefully right the ship. His resume includes some really good defensive seasons, and some really bad ones. GM Brett Veach has worked hard to assemble some good players for this side of the ball though, and the entire team is buzzing with excitement. Frank Clark takes one of the defensive end spots after starting his career in Seattle. He can play the run and rush the passer well. Chris Jones is a sack machine for Kansas City, and now will move inside to DT in the new 4-3 base defense. Derrick Nnadi will play the 1-technique and stop the run inside. Alex Okafor and Emmanuel Ogbah will likely share snaps at the opposite defensive end spot. At linebacker, the team has more depth than one might expect- Reggie Ragland and Darron Lee were highly graded prospects coming into the league, but are backups at the moment to Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson. Having Tyrann Mathieu at safety should help the secondary, but it may not be enough. The other safety spot will be played by Daniel Sorenson and rookie Juan Thornhill, so you could say that position won’t be a strength on the team. At corner, Kendall Fuller will be their best player in the slot, and Breshaud Breeland and second year Chief Charvarius Ward man the outsides. There will be some shootouts this year, but the front seven is good enough that they’ll win plenty of them.
September should be a good month for K.C. Their most difficult matchup of the month is Baltimore, but it’s their first home game of the year, and the crowd should be in full force, amping up the offense and giving the Ravens trouble with communication. In October, the Chiefs play teams that likely will be hot and cold throughout the year (Colts and the Packers), and their scheduling challenge of the year will be a game against Houston and then another in Denver four days later. Both of those teams have some serious defensive clout, but Chiefs everywhere will remain confident in their team’s offense. November has them play Minnesota, at Tennessee, and in Mexico City against the Chargers; there are a considerable amount of Chiefs fans in Mexico, so it should feel like a home game in front of around 90,000 fans. Another thing of note to look out for in Estadio Azteca is the altitude. The stadium is 7,200 feet above sea level, which is much higher than even Denver’s notorious Mile High Stadium. It will be interesting to see how this affects both team’s performance. After that, Kansas City has a bye followed by a home game against the Raiders to start December, which will be the toughest month on the schedule. Games in Chicago and New England are both very difficult, especially in the cold of winter, and the Chiefs travel to both. They also have home games against their division rivals, the Broncos and Chargers, who are both looking like fringe playoff teams and will not go down easily. Despite these late tests, the beginning of the schedule should look good to the Chiefs Kingdom. There is not a back to back week stretch of playoff teams from last year, or teams that I project will go to the playoffs this year. This team should have a bye week in the playoffs again.
#3 Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh fans likely think that last year was sabotaged by Le’Veon Bell’s holdout and Antonio Brown’s off the field distractions. The good news for those is that both of those players now on new teams. Not only that, but the team has found worthy guys to replace them. Mike Tomlin has proved that he can win big games. With Roethlisberger on the team, young talent surrounding him, and a defense that has improved a lot, the Steelers look primed to return to the playoffs again.
All of the drama that went on in Oakland surrounding Antonio Brown is undoubtedly making Pittsburgh feel like they did the right thing in letting him go. His talent is unquestionable, but the distractions he causes take away from the unity a team needs to succeed. Juju Smith-Schuster will take AB’s place, and he looks like a good replacement. He’s a talented, hard working player, and a good teammate too, as evidenced by him winning the team’s MVP award last year. His positive energy is what the Steelers need. The receivers around him aren’t proven yet, but have potential and a good quarterback- a recipe for success. Donte Moncrief, James Washington, and Ryan Switzer will be valuable to this offense after losing their All-Pro receiver. At tight end, Vance McDonald had a breakout year last year, and is earning Roethlisberger’s trust. He’ll be an active member in the game plan as well. The offensive line has been consistently good over the years, and veteran starters Villanueva, Foster, Pouncey, and DeCastro all return. They’ll protect their QB and open up holes for new starting running back, James Conner. Conner was putting up great numbers before missing a few games to injury last year, and he’ll be their workhorse back again this year. The offense doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but a thing to be watched is how they respond to the losses of two crucial positional coaches, Mike Munchak and Darryl Drake. Munchak was the team’s long time O-line coach, but left to join Denver this offseason. Darryl Drake -the receiver’s coach- passed away unexpectedly on August 11th. He was a great coach, coaching receiving stars like Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitzgerald, and was loved by his players.
The current Steelers defense may be its most talented since their last Super Bowl appearance. Cameron Heyward, Javon Hargrave, and Stephon Tuitt are studs on the D-line. T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree will man the outside linebacker spots, and really help on the pas rush. The team led the NFL in sacks last year, and wants to repeat their success. In the middle linebacker spots, the Steelers will likely have a three man rotation. Devin Bush, their first round pick from Michigan, may not start day one, but will work his way into the starting lineup. Vince Williams is their run stopping linebacker, while they brought in Mark Barron from the Rams to slow down opposing backs and tight ends in the passing game. Their secondary isn’t anything flashy, but they’ll do their job. Joe Haden is their CB1, and was signed to an extension. Terrell Edmunds looks to make a year two jump, and Sean Davis will hold the free safety spot. Corner is still their weakness, but with a front seven as talented as theirs if they can hold their ground for just a little bit the team will have more victories than losses.
The AFC North will be a slugfest this year, and making the playoffs won’t be easy. After starting in New England, Pittsburgh plays Seattle week two. San Fran and Cincinnati should be two of their easier games, but afterwards they meet Baltimore and travel to L.A. to play the Chargers. The Chargers are still playing in Stubhub Center though, and have the least intimidating home crowd in the NFL. Four or five wins by their week seven bye will be difficult, but not impossible. After coming off a bye and playing a terrible Miami team, the Steelers start November against the Colts, the Rams, and a game in Cleveland. If they make it out of this stretch, the Steelers have a favorable schedule to end the year, and should be in good shape. Two of the more threatening teams they play will be the Browns and Bills, and they have both of those games at home. Easy wins on the road against the Bengals, Cardinals, and Jets should only boost the team’s confidence before their toughest test of the winter: a game in Baltimore week seventeen. Depending on how hot the Steelers start the year, they could have a playoff bye. One thing seems to be sure though: a playoff berth is in the future for this year’s Pittsburgh Steelers.
#4 Houston Texans
The retirement of Andrew Luck meant the Colts lost their spot as likely AFC South champs, and it opens up an opportunity for the Texans to repeat as the divisional leader. Bill O’Brien -the Texan’s head coach and interim general manager- understands the urgency it will take to capitalize on the team’s contention window. With future Hall of Famer J.J. Watt aging, but still producing at a top level, and Deshaun Watson playing at a high level on his rookie contract, Houston decided to make some last second moves this offseason, and has gone all in on their Super Bowl chances this year. Sure, the Jadeveon Clowney deal was a terrible one, and the team gave up a lot to get Laremy Tunsil, but it shows the organization knew its strengths and weaknesses, and the importance of depth and balance on a roster. Will they make a championship push, or will they collapse again?. O’Brien is on the hot seat, and it’s time to show what he can do with a great team.
Offensively, this will be the best unit the Texans have had since 2012 with Arian Foster and Matt Schaub leading the way. Deshaun Watson is healthy, and had all offseason to train and improve on his already great QB game. DeAndre Hopkins is the best wide receiver in football right now; Nuk didn’t drop a pass last year (according to Pro Football Focus) and is as consistent and hard working as they come. Will Fuller is outstanding on the field, but the problem is that he is rarely on it. He has recovered from another knee injury, and if he stays healthy this may be one of the best receiving corps in the league. Keke Coutee is another receiver who was improving before he got injured. He’s back again, but for insurance the Texans smartly brought in Kenny Stills to provide depth. Lamar Miller tore his ACL and is out for the year, but running backs Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde will take his place. Neither are All-Pros, but Duke will bring help in the passing game, while Hyde will provide the tough yards on the ground. The importance of getting Laremy Tunsil at tackle can not be stressed enough. The O-line struggled all last season, especially in pass protection. Tunsil is extremely talented, and allows the Texans to move guys around to better the entire line. Nick Martin and Zach Fulton were two of the better linemen for Houston, but have struggled with injuries. They’ll be joined by this year’s first round pick, Tytus Howard, in the middle. The offense’s worst position is tight end. Right now, they have several players at the position who haven’t made much of an impact, but if someone like Jordan Akins proves he can make a difference the offense will be that much better.
Houston unexplainably got rid of Jadeveon Clowney for barely anything. They could have kept him one more year while he played on the franchise tag, but something went wrong in the negotiations, and now he’s a Seahawk. That’s alright; Houston still has one of the best front sevens in the game. J.J. Watt is back, and he’s healthy. D.J. Reader, Angelo Blackson, and Carlos Watkins probably won’t get ten sacks, but they’ll stop the run as well as anyone. This a big year for Whitney Mercilus and Barkevious Mingo. They have to make up for some of the sacks the team lost when they traded Clowney. Romeo Crennel is great at scheming and working with what his players are good at, so they’ll still be a top pass rush team. Benardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham are a great linebacker duo, and should perform at a high level once more. The question mark on the defense is its secondary, and the Texans made a lot of changes in the offseason in hopes of making it better. Gone are Tyrann Mathieu and Kareem Jackson, replaced by Bradley Roby and Tashaun Gipson. Roby is the young, speedy corner they’ve needed since letting A.J. Bouye walk in free agency; the new corner can cover receivers like T.Y. Hilton, who gave the team headaches last year. Gipson is a hard hitting safety who can cover tight ends well, something the team could not do with the feisty, but small, Tyrann Mathieu. Long toothed veteran Johnathan Joseph will play CB2 now, and Aaron Colvin is finally healthy enough to play in the slot. Another name to watch is Lonnie Johnson, a second round rookie who showed his competitive spirit in training camp.
This year’s schedule is not the cakewalk that last year’s was for the Texans. They start in New Orleans, and go through a slew of tough opponents like the Chargers, Panthers, Falcons, and Chiefs (in Kansas City). Their easiest game before their bye week is the Raiders on October 27th. Then, Houston travels to Baltimore, plays Indianapolis four days later on Thursday night football, and has to deal with New England in their next matchup. If they can survive their first twelve games with a winning record, they can cruise through the rest of December to a playoff berth. They play Denver in Houston, have two road games in a row against Tennessee and Tampa, and complete their season at home against the Titans.
#5 (Wild Card) Los Angeles Chargers
Predicting how the Chargers will do in a season has been an especially difficult task in the last few years, and it will be again this year. It seems with this organization there is always a rash of star players going down with an injury, or some sort of off field distraction that brings down what should be a good team. In years past, it’s been Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa, Hunter Henry, and more who have missed time. This year, it’s Derwin James who went down with a preseason injury that will have him miss significant time, and Melvin Gordon is holding out for a new contract, and may miss the entire year himself. The good news is that the Chargers still have a quality coaching staff and a lot of other good players. Anthony Lynn, Ken Whisenhunt, and Gus Bradley looked like they were finally unlocking some of this team’s potential last year, going 12-4, finally beating the Chiefs, and winning a playoff game. This team will be fun to watch as they attempt to maintain their winning ways.
Philip Rivers’ case for the Hall of Fame would be a lot stronger if he could finally reach the Super Bowl this year. Rivers is still producing at a high level, and really makes this offense click. Keenan Allen will be the Charger’s number one target, and for good reason. He’s one of the best route runners in the game right now, and creates a lot of separation against even the best of corners. Mike Williams will be the WR2, and is looking to make even more of an impact after catching ten touchdowns last year on only 43 catches. Hunter Henry is back at tight end after years of injury struggles. He was a talented target early in his career. Despite Melvin Gordon’s holdout, the Chargers should be able to move the ball on the ground reasonably well. Austin Ekeler looked good last year when Gordon missed time, and is a top pass catching running back. Justin Jackson will get some carries as well, and fullback Derek Watt opens running lanes spectacularly. Most of last year’s offensive line returns, and while they’re not terrible, they are they are the vulnerable spot on the offense. They are an up and down unit, and are thin depth-wise.
This defense will really miss Derwin James, who looked like an All Pro in the making last year in his rookie season. He can make his return later this year, but they’ll have to find ways to win without him for now. The defensive line is the defense’s strength. If Joey Bosa can stay healthy for sixteen games and more, there’s no telling what he can do. He is a versatile piece for Gus Bradley to work with. Melvin Ingram will man the other edge spot, and has proven that he is a consistent pass rush threat. In the middle, starters Brandon Mebane and Justin Jones return, but a player to watch is first round pick Jerry Tillery, a highly graded prospect who fell to L.A. because of injuries in his senior year at Notre Dame. At linebacker, Denzel Perryman has trouble staying on the field due to injuries, but is a tackling machine when he is playing. Thomas Davis was brought in from Carolina, and should be a good locker room guy as well as a veteran contributor. The linebackers aren’t bad, but do need to improve for the defense to be elite. In the secondary, Casey Hayward is the CB1, and be a lockdown defender. Desmond King is a great slot corner, so he’ll play there while Michael Davis takes the other outside corner spot. Adrian Phillips is an above average strong safety who plays well against the run and pass, but free safety will be a spot of struggles as the Chargers try to decide between young safeties Rayshawn Jenkins and second round rookie Nassir Adderley.
It appears the Chargers drew the short stick when it comes to this year’s schedule. They did get Indy week one at home, who will be at their weakest early in the year as they adjust from the surprising Luck retirement, but afterwards the Chargers have games in Detroit and against the Texans. In October, they play Denver and Pittsburgh, and then end the month with back to back road games in Tennessee and Chicago. Pittsburgh will be the best team they face that month, but the three other teams won’t be guaranteed wins either. Green Bay and Oakland will be the best two-game stretch L.A. has had up to this point of their schedule, but they come four days apart because of a Thursday night game, and then the team ends its November games with a matchup in Mexico City against the Chiefs. After a game like that, any team would be happy to have a bye week, and the Chargers are fortunate enough to have one here. However, this is followed by the second mile high altitude game in a row for Los Angeles- they travel to Denver for their first December game. Will L.A. use their bye week to practice somewhere else like the Air Force Academy to stay used to the altitude like other teams have done in the past? If so, will it be beneficial, or will the players be exhausted by having three weeks in a row of high altitudes? This is all speculation right now, but something to consider. The rest of December goes as follows: at Jacksonville, vs. Minnesota, vs. Oakland, and then finishing the year at Arrowhead stadium for yet another road game against the Chiefs. If the Chargers play as well as they did last year on the road (7-1) they could have a real chance to make the playoffs. The schedule didn’t do them any favors, but the best teams always find ways to win, and I think they’ll do enough to make a wildcard spot.
#6 (Wild Card) Buffalo Bills
On the surface, the Bills of the 2018 season were one of the ten worst teams in the league; however, Buffalo did a lot of things well that were overlooked because of their final record. Their pass defense was one of the best in the league, and regularly shut down opponent’s quarterbacks. Young players like Tremaine Edmunds improved as the year went on. The problems for the team were all on offense. This came as a surprise to almost no one. It is tough to start a rookie quarterback in any situation, much less on a team with a bad offensive line, an aging starting running back, and little receiving help. The Bills made a lot of changes this offseason to fix those problems. Sean McDermott has proven he’s a capable NFL coach; two years ago McDermott even led his team to an unlikely playoff berth. The organization has finally built the roster to fit McDermott’s preferences, and the “Bill’s Mafia” should be excited about the things to come.
The first order of business for the Bills this free agency was surrounding Josh Allen with better players. At receiver, they brought in John Brown, a speed threat who will compliment Allen’s big arm, and Cole Beasley, a slot ace who can get open in short yardage situations. Allen had to scramble too much last year, and having a reliable receiving corp will help fix that. Buffalo also invested a lot in their offensive line. They signed a lot of guys to create depth at the position, and drafted Cody Ford from Oklahoma in the second round. Mitch Morse was a standout signing from Kansas City, and will start day one at center. The offense still won’t be worldbeaters though; running back and tight end will be worrisome spots of the roster if no one steps up early. After cutting LeSean McCoy, the Bills are hoping Frank Gore and rookie Devin Singletary can produce in the backfield. Their new starting tight end is Tyler Kroft, who only became a starter on the Bengals after Tyler Eifert went down with an injury, and still lost a lot of receptions to C.J. Uzomah. The main focus should be moving the ball and controlling turnovers- if they can do that, they could improve their win totals drastically.
Sadly, Kyle Williams finally retired after an outstanding career spent in Buffalo. He was a team leader, and will likely go in the Bills Hall of Fame. For a while, this left a spot open at defensive tackle, a very important position in McDermott’s system. Then, Ed Oliver fell to them in the draft, and Bills everywhere rejoiced. Some thought Oliver was in the running for the number one pick, but after a senior year full of troubles at Houston, his stock fell a bit by draft night. Now, the Bills are loaded with talent at defensive tackle again. Star Lotulelei, Jordan Phillips, and Harrison Phillips join Ed Oliver to wreak havoc in the middle. Trent Murphy and Jerry Hughes will start at defensive end, and are backed up by former first round pick Shaq Lawson. The D-line is set, and should give their linebackers plenty of big play opportunities. At middle linebacker, Tremaine Edmunds is fast and athletic, and still has a lot of untapped potential. Lorenzo Alexander and Matt Milano will flank him at the outside linebacker spots, and are steady veterans who will get the job done. The secondary has a great cornerback in Tre’Davious White, and a deep safety corps that includes Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and Kurt Coleman. They didn’t lose anyone to free agency, so they look to continue their success from last year.
It can be argued that Buffalo doesn’t play a good team until week four, a home game against New England. If the team gets off to a hot start, it will mean a lot for momentum. After New England, Buffalo plays Tennessee, and then has a bye before a game versus Miami. Their last game in October is against Philadelphia. Through week 8, they only play two of my projected playoff teams, and the rest of the games they play are against teams that likely won’t even be in the late season playoff hunt. This is very favorable for a team that’s likely looking for a wildcard berth. November is when the challenging teams begin to show up. Washington should be a team they can beat, but the Bills travel two weeks in a row to Cleveland and Miami. They finish November against Denver and at Dallas, who both may be barely holding onto playoff hopes. They won’t be easy wins. If Buffalo can win even three games in November after a successful start, they can likely make the playoffs, which is good news because December will be brutal for the team. They play Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at New England, and end with the Jets. The Bills will be in some close games against some not-so-great teams, and will come up with some upset wins themselves. In the end, making the playoffs is a goal that they can achieve.
DIVISIONAL STANDINGS
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South
1. Houston Texans
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Tennessee Titans
AFC East
1. New England Patriots
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New York Jets
4. Miami Dolphins
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Los Angeles Chargers
3. Denver Broncos
4. Oakland Raiders
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