Sports news and more by Matthew Barnhill

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Week 7 Fantasy Starts



QB

Jared Goff
Fantasy owners who started Goff last week are likely thinking of benching him this week for his terrible performance against the 49ers. However, that might be a mistake. The Falcons secondary was torn apart last week by Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. The Rams have a lot of talent in the passing game still. This could be a retaliation week for Goff.


Carson Wentz

Going into this week, Philadelphia head coach Doug Pederson said in an interview that he expects to win against the Cowboys this week and officially claim the top of the NFC East. Confidence is high for the Eagles, despite a tough loss against the Vikings a week ago. Wentz is possibly getting receiver Desean Jackson back this week, and the Cowboys are dealing with a rash of injuries. An inspired Wentz performance could be coming.


Daniel Jones

The Giants suffered against a superb Patriots defense, but this week they get to play the Cardinals. Jones made some throws against New England that proved why he was a first round pick. If he can avoid more rookie mistakes this week, he could have a boom week now that stars like Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley are coming back from injury.


RB


Tevin Coleman

Since returning from his ankle injury, Coleman has been getting around 20 touches a game for the best running offense in the league. His pass catching has value in PPR leagues, and this week against Washington he’ll be in the lead for likely most of the game, meaning more running opportunities. Coleman is a flex play at least.


Josh Jacobs

The Raiders have been using Jacobs as their workhorse tailback, and against the Packers that could equate to a good fantasy day. The Packers looked better than expected against the run on Monday night, limiting Lion’s RBs to minimal yards, but Kerryon Johnson still found the endzone. Jacobs floor is similar to Johnson’s Monday night game, and his ceilingis high. Jacobs is worth a start this week.


Devin Singletary

This week may be the week Singletary finally returns from his hamstring injury. He’s had time to fully heal, and the Bills play the Dolphins this week. Singletary was a much better halfback than Frank Gore in the pass game and in yards per carry when he was healthy. The Bills could attempt to feed him and let him get back to his dominant ways against Miami. I consider him a possible flex play, but watch his injury status and look at your other options before throwing him in the starting lineup.


WR


T.Y. Hilton

The same thing happens every year: T.Y. Hilton destroys the Houston secondary. A couple of weeks ago, it looked like Houston may have finally found the solution to slow T.Y. - Bradley Roby- but he will miss the week with a hamstring injury. Him and Jonathan Joseph will likely be out, meaning there’s not a top corner to stop Hilton. T.Y. is a must start.


Julian Edelman

Just a month ago, the Patriots were among the best at wide receiver. Now, in week 7, AB has been cut, Josh Gordon will likely play limited snaps after getting hurt last week, and N’Keal Harry might be coming off of the injured reserve list. However, Julian Edelman is still there for Tom Brady. Against a Jets defense that blitzes a lot, Brady will have to throw more quick passes and checkdowns. Edelman could have a big week because he is the WR1 on the team, and in PPR his value is even higher against the Jets.


D.K. Metcalf

Right now Seattle QB Russell Wilson is at the top of most MVP conversations and the Ravens defense has taken a considerable step back from their usual dominant ways. Baltimore will likely double team Tyler Lockett, and TE Will Dissly is now out for the season with an achilles injury. This week, that could mean more targets for D.K. Plus, if new Baltimore cornerback Marcus Peters plays this week, he could still be catching up with his new playbook, and make a costly mistake that could give Metcalf a touchdown. All it takes is one big play for a deep threat like Metcalf. He is a possible flex play this week.


TE


Evan Engram

Now that Saquon Barkley is back, the Giants will be able to move the ball more on offense, meaning more opportunities for Engram. If New York is in the red zone often, Engram has a high probability of scoring against the Cardinals' bad TE defense.


Noah Fant

Fant had a terrible fantasy performance last week after I predicted he’d be a worthy start. I’m going to stick with him one more week though; this week, the Broncos play a beat up Chiefs defense who was recently run over by the Texans tight ends. If the Broncos play the Chiefs close at Mile High, Fant could have a good fantasy game.




D/ST


New Orleans Saints

The formula to shutting down the Bear's offense is what the Packers did week one: shut down the run, and force Chicago to throw. The Saints have a stout run defense, and enough playmakers in the secondary to force a turnover or two. Turnovers are what you need in fantasy, so give the Saints a start this week.


San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have established themselves as a top fantasy defense, and should be rostered in every league. If they’re not rostered in your league, pick them up this week. They play a terrible Redskins offense, who is trying to focus their efforts on the run game. Running the ball won’t work against San Fran, who have five first round picks on their defensive line. Play the 49ers this week.


Detroit Lions

The Lions were ripped off against the Packers. After a solid defensive night, the refs threw the game in the Packers favor with some terrible calls. They are now last in a close NFC North, and will look to recover by winning this week’s NFC North matchup: the Vikings. Minnesota won’t be as effective in the pass game against Detroit, and the Lions have a chance to make some big fantasy plays. The Lions are startable in a deep league, or for a fantasy team that has their starting defense on a bye week.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Week 6 Fantasy Starts



QB


Gardner Minshew

A win at home against the Saints would be a huge boost to the Jaguars, who remain a mystery when looking at possible playoff teams this year. For Minshew, this win may mean even more; if Gardner can pull off a win this week with another good performance, he may remain the starting QB even if Nick Foles does return. The Saints run defense is stout, but their secondary can be beat. If you are in a bind at quarterback, give him a shot.



Matthew Stafford

The Lions winning against the Packers would be huge this week. With the win, Detroit would be first place in the NFC North. The team got an extra week to prepare for this game, and should be ready to play. Meanwhile, Packer’s safety Darnell Savage was seen in a walking boot Tuesday after getting his ankle twisted against Dallas. If he doesn’t play, Stafford’s value increases even more. Expect big numbers from Matt on Monday Night Football.



Colt McCoy

Washington head coach Jay Gruden was fired this weekend, leaving the team with even more questions than before. The team may be in trouble long term, but fortunately for them they play the dreadful Dolphins this week. With Dwayne Haskins the obvious long term quarterback, and Case Keenum the QB with the big contract, Colt McCoy needs to prove himself in every game he starts to stay in the league. Miami is a good team to have a statement game against.

*UPDATE: Case Keenum will start this week, do not start McCoy



RB

James Conner

With QB Mason Rudolph and backup RB Jaylen Samuels both out with injuries the Steelers' offense is considerably weaker, but Conner will have to be fed. He’ll be featured in both the run and pass game. Hopefully he’s not your RB1, but either way it probably wouldn't be wise to bench him.



Sony Michel

Michel was relied upon a lot Sunday against the Redskins, and should be used a lot again against the Giants. The Pats defense will definitely take advantage of the Giants offense missing most of their stars, and so once again the positive game script for New England means more run plays. The Giants defense isn’t exactly composed of All-Pros either. Expect Sony to run all over them.



Carlos Hyde

Since week 3 against the Ravens, opponent’s game plans against the Chiefs have been adjusted. Teams against the Chiefs are trying to establish the run, and it’s leading to closer games. Hyde is averaging 4.2 yard per carry this year on 14.6 hand offs a game. The Texans offensive line is improving every week. This past weekend, Kansas City’s defensive line looked a little worse for wear after Chris Jones exited the game. Keep an eye on Jones’ status this week; if he can’t play Hyde’s value goes up even more. Play Carlos in your Flex if you don’t have a must-start player there already.




WR

Larry Fitzgerald

The Falcons defense has looked especially bad in the secondary as of late, allowing the Texans to move the ball through the air at will last week, and the Titans the week before. The Cardinals have an air raid offensive system, meaning they barrage their opponents with a variety of passing plays. With RB David Johnson questionable because of a back injury, Arizona is likely planning to pass even more than usual. Fitzgerald is an all time great, and already a favorite target of QB Kyler Murray. Let Larry loose this weekend- he’s in for a good game.



Josh Gordon

The Giants surprisingly haven’t been the worst against the run this year; however, their weakness is playing against the pass. New York will likely try to stop the run and limit Brady’s short pass attempts to force Tom to throw longer, more difficult passes. Josh Gordon is a burner, and is too big and fast for any Giants corner. He could have a touchdown on a big play this week, making him worthy of a flex or WR2 play, depending on your team’s situation.



Will Fuller


When he has a clean pocket, Deshaun Watson is possibly the most dangerous QB in football. Last week, Watson wasn’t sacked for the first time in a long time, and had a historic game. Fuller was on the other end of 14 completions against the Falcons, and could have more big play opportunities this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s Chris Jones may be out, meaning defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have to blitz to create pressure. If he does, Fuller will have one on one coverage with one of the Chiefs terrible corners. I’d guess Fuller gets another touchdown this week.




Terry McLaurin

Miami’s best corner Xavien Howard may shadow McLaurin, but if this is anything close to an even game, Terry could get the targets and yards needed for a good fantasy performance. Last week was a down week for McLaurin, but he was followed by the NFL’s best corner, Stephon Gilmore. Xavien Howard isn’t on Gilmore’s level. Terry should be started again this week.




TE

Noah Fant

The Titans couldn’t stop the TE position again last week, giving up the game clinching score to Lee Smith, a tight end for the Bills. Noah Fant is an athletic freak that should be in the Broncos offensive plans. Expect red zone targets for Fant, which could translate into a touchdown.



Chris HerndonThe Jets QB Sam Darnold had a good connection at the end of the year last year, but Herndon missed the beginning of the year with a suspension. Now that Darnold and Herndon are back they will try to pick up where they left off. New York has a tight end in nearly all of their offensive formations, and Herndon is the kind of athlete you want at your fantasy tight end position. If your team needs a TE, at least pick him up this week and see if he performs well in his return game. But keep an eye on his injury report; as of this writing, he is questionable with a hamstring pull.




D/ST



Los Angeles Chargers

Pittsburgh is down to their 3rd string quarterback now that Mason Rudolph is out with a concussion. This means the Steelers' offense will be very one dimensional and predictable, giving the Chargers a major advantage. If you have this defense or they are on the waiver wire, give them a start this week.



Baltimore Ravens


Baltimore’s opponent this week is the Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens 3-2 record is the top in the AFC North, but Cincy and Cleveland are not far behind, meaning this game has more significance than anticipated in the preseason. Luckily for the Ravens, AJ Green and John Ross are out, and the Bengals offensive line is, well, offensive. This defense is good enough to take advantage of that. Start them this week.



Dallas Cowboys

Sam Darnold and Chris Herndon are back for the Jets, but it won’t be enough to beat Dallas. The Cowboys should be highly motivated coming into this game after losing twice in a row. New York’s offense is good enough to make this a risky play, but the combination of a rusty Darnold and a bad offensive line may make this a good fantasy week for the Dallas defense.

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Week 5 Fantasy Tips and Predictions



QB

Jacoby Brissett

For the Colts to be competitive in this game, they must keep up with the scoring of the Chiefs. They may start with a focus on the run, but the the Chiefs are weakest in the secondary. Indianapolis’ offensive line has the star power to slow the Chiefs awesome pass rush, and will give Brissett time to find his teammates. Jacoby was highly efficient in his first month of the season, and the trend should continue.




Kyler Murray

The Arizona versus Cincinnati game will likely be a back and forth offensive matchup, so Murray has a chance to make this a big fantasy game. Mason Rudolph dinked and dunked his way to a solid but not spectacular game against Cincy Monday night, and Arizona does a lot of short passes as well. Kyler can be a solid play this week.




RB

David Montgomery

This rookie running back hasn’t lived up to his draft position thus far, but with starting QB Mitchell Trubisky out with an injury, Montgomery may have a chance to shine. Chase Daniel is a decent backup, but he likely won’t have the offensive gameplan centered around him. This means the running game will be more of a focus this week against the Raiders. Also, Oakland linebacker Vontaze Burfict was suspended for the season after last week’s game, so the Raiders may be adjusting to his loss - he was a leader on the defense. Try Montgomery again this week, and expect his increase in touches to equate to fantasy relevance.




Austin Ekeler

The second best fantasy running back to this point, Ekeler is a talent that has been a must start. However, fellow Charger Melvin Gordon returns this week, giving some owners doubts. My advice is to hold onto him, and even start him this week. Head coach Anthony Lynn said Gordon may still be given limited snaps in his first week back. Ekeler is also a weapon in the passing game, which is really important considering Los Angeles has only one true threat at wide receiver right now, Keenan Allen. If Ekeler continues to be active in the passing game, which he should be, he remains a PPR value. The Denver Broncos are this week’s opponent, and they have been bad against running backs. Hold on to Ekeler, and play him this week.




Sony Michel

The Redskins don’t stand a chance this week. Starting QB Case Keenum was seen in a walking boot Wednesday, and head coach Jay Gruden was even quoted saying that they don’t have an offensive gameplan yet. The last quote is likely an exaggeration, but it goes without saying Washington will struggle. That means the Patriots will be in the lead most of the game, slowly grinding away the clock with their running game. Michel has been a disappointment, but I think he finds the endzone this week, and will get the yards needed to be a RB2 or Flex play.




WR

Deandre Hopkins

“Nuk” hasn’t caught a touchdown since week one, but owners can’t afford to panic. He remains one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL, and has an easier defense to face this week. The Falcons allowed Tennessee to throw three touchdowns to wideouts last week, and the Titans have one of the weakest receiving corps in the league. Falcon’s safety Keanu Neal also went down with an Achilles injury. Deandre will have a big week and remind everyone why he was a first round pick this year.




Adam Thielen

The Vikings looked absolutely terrible against the Bears. Their offensive line was shredded, and Cousins couldn’t throw downfield. After the game, Thielen called out his quarterback and criticized the passing game. This week, the coaches are going to look for ways to restore their offense’s confidence in the passing game, and they have the perfect opponent to accomplish the task. The Giants looked good against a rookie quarterback with no receiving weapons last week, but this week they will be tested. Thielen will likely be targeted a lot to make up for last week’s missteps, and will be a fantasy starter again. Don’t give Thielen away in a trade or bench him. Give Thielen a chance again this week, and see if he can bounce back.




Marquise Brown

After a hot start to the season, “Hollywood” has been less relevant as a fantasy receiver. This week, the Ravens face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who finally got their first win in week four. The Steeler’s usual struggles against the pass were masked last week behind the team’s eight sacks. With that many sacks, the opponent’s passing game is really weakened and predictable. The Ravens have a good offensive line, and are very unpredictable offensively. Brown is too speedy for any corner on the Steelers, and will get some big gains. Expect him to have another good game.




TE

Dawson Knox

This rookie has been used more in the passing game lately for the Bills, and may be worth a spot on your roster. This week, the Bills face the Titans, who have given up a lot of points to opposing tight ends. In deep leagues, or in an emergency, Knox could be worth a shot this week as your starting tight end.




Tyler Eifert

The Bengals are going up against the Cardinals this week, and that should be enough of an explanation for starting Eifert. The Cardinals still haven’t had a week where they’ve slowed the tight end position, and Eifert and QB Andy Dalton have showed that they can be a good duo in the past. Try Eifert this week if you don’t have a better option.




Will Dissly

According to ESPN’s fantasy app, Dissly is only being started in 50% of leagues. He’s been the sixth best PPR tight end thus far though, and has averaged 19 points over the last three games. Russell Wilson has shown he has faith in Dissly, so you should as well. Put him in your starting lineup this week.




D/ST

Buffalo Bills

The final score last week showed a Buffalo loss, but a closer look will reveal that this defense is legit. The Patriots had to have a blocked punt touchdown to pull away in this game. Brady threw his first interception of the year. The Bills haven’t allowed more than 20 points this year, and I wouldn’t expect the Titans to break that streak. The Bills defense is a good play this week.




Tennessee Titans

On the other side of the Bills-Titans game, Tennessee has a good matchup as well. Bills QB Josh Allen may or may not play because of a concussion. His backup Matt Barkley hasn’t been that productive since entering the league. The Titans can stop the run, which is the Bill’s usual offensive focus. When Tennessee stops the run, they’ll have opportunities to make big plays against the pass. Big plays equal big fantasy points, so give the Titans defense a start this week.




Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles defense hasn’t been good for fantasy, but they face a perfect matchup this week to make some noise. The Jet’s quarterback Sam Darnold may come back this week, but he likely won’t. That leaves backup Luke Falk, who is just as bad as the rest of the Jets offense. New York’s only good player on offense is running back Le’Veon Bell, but the Eagles are deep on their defensive line, and will shut him down. If you’re in a pinch at the D/ST, start the Eagles.




Fantasy Tip of the Week




Having a good receiving corps in fantasy can be difficult at times. With so many names to choose from, and so much week to week scoring variation, it’s hard to know who to go after in drafts and on the waiver wire. This week, I have some tips on how to find receivers in fantasy.



Target %: Certain receivers are given more opportunities than others, and more opportunities means more fantasy points. In PPR (points per reception) this is especially important because players with a lot of catches are just as valuable as the guy who catches a fifty yard bomb. Keep an eye on this stat though; throughout the season, injuries and roster moves will impact who gets opportunities.


Quarterback connection: This is very much related to target %, but it’s not the same. As you watch a game, watch which receivers the QB throws to in big moments. This was seen a lot in the duo of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. When Big Ben was throwing near the endzone, he looked to Brown, and threw him the ball even if it was a bad choice to do so. If you feel like a certain QB and WR have a connection, go after them. The receivers who have a good relationship with their QB will have more touchdowns.


Team pass %: This is pretty simple. Teams that pass more than others create more opportunities for WR fantasy points.


An increase in receptions several weeks in a row: This is a sign that the coaches and players have an increased faith in the player’s talent. This is something that should especially be considered when looking at rookies and young players who are still learning. If you find this trend, you may have a breakout player on your hands.

Drops and/or fumbles: If a player has been dropping the ball or fumbling a bit too much lately, you should stop before picking them up. Unless they are immensely talented, the coaches and players around them will have less faith in them, meaning less opportunities in the future.